[Gw] Re: Questions regarding "http://amper.ped.muni.cz/gw/articles/html.format/orb_forc.html "

Jan Hollan jhollan at amper....muni.cz
Tue Oct 2 18:40:42 CEST 2007

> I'm having a debate with an "ice age advocate" here
> http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002336.html

> Peter Harris is disputing yourself and Berger and Loutre on "no ice age
> soon" as referenced here  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html

> Perhaps if you have a few moments you might be able to make some comments -
> essentially a debate about future insolation and the 400 kya transition and
> the present.

Luke, thanks for the link to the blog and your effort. Some other people
asked me too about info on future glaciation.

As I see that the -400 ka glaciation is discussed, I've added a graph
showing the relevant period in more detail, at the end of


The bottom line is: we should not extrapolate past trends (like decline in
summer insolation, or the shape of the past glaciation cycles). We should
look at reliably computed past, current and future forcings instead. It's
evident we have almost reached the near-future insolation minimum already.
Before the atmosphere returns to normal (thousands of years), we will be
on the increasing part of the insolation curve again...


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