FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Chapter 18. Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts Coordinating Lead Authors Wolfgang Cramer (Germany / France), Gary Yohe (USA) Lead Authors Maximilian Auffhammer (USA), Christian Huggel (Switzerland), Ulf Molau (Sweden), Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias (Brazil), Andrew Solow (USA), Dáithí Stone (Canada / South Africa / USA), Lourdes Tibig (Philippines) Contributing Authors Laurens Bouwer (Netherlands), Mark Carey (USA), Graham Cogley (Canada), Dim Coumou (Germany), Yuka Otsuki Estrada (USA / Japan), Eberhard Faust (Germany), Gerrit Hansen (Germany), Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Joanna House (UK), Solomon Hsiang (USA), Lesley Hughes (Australia), Sari Kovats (UK), Paul Leadley (France), David Lobell (USA), Camille Parmesan (USA), Elvira Poloczanska (Australia), Hans Otto Pörtner (Germany), Andy Reisinger (New Zealand) Review Editors Rik Leemans (Netherlands), Bernard Seguin (France), Neville Smith (Australia) Volunteer Chapter Scientist Gerrit Hansen (Germany) Contents Executive Summary 18.1. Introduction 18.1.1. Scope and Goals of the Chapter 18.1.2. Summary of Findings from the AR4 18.2. Methodological Concepts for Detection and Attribution of Impacts of Climate Change 18.2.1. Concepts and Approaches 18.2.1.1 Detecting and Attributing Change in the Earth System 18.2.1.2 Concepts of Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Used in This Chapter 18.2.2. Challenges to Detection and Attribution 18.3. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Natural Systems 18.3.1. Freshwater Resources 18.3.1.1. The Cryosphere 18.3.1.2. The Regional Water Balance 18.3.1.3. Erosion, Landslides, and Avalanches 18.3.2. Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems 18.3.2.1. Phenology 18.3.2.2. Productivity and Biomass 18.3.2.3. Species Distributions and Biodiversity 18.3.2.4. Impacts on Major Systems 18.3.3. Coastal Systems and Low Lying Areas 18.3.3.1. Shoreline Erosion and other Coastal Processes 18.3.3.2. Coastal Ecosystems 18.3.3.3. Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure 18.3.4. Oceans 18.3.4.1. Impacts on Ocean System Properties and Marine Organisms and Ecosystems 18.3.4.2. Observed Climate Change Effects across Ocean Regions Subject to Final Copyedit 1 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.4. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Human and Managed Systems 18.4.1. Food Production Systems 18.4.1.1. Agricultural Crops 18.4.1.2. Fisheries 18.4.2. Economic Impacts, Key Economic Sectors, and Services 18.4.2.1. Economic Growth 18.4.2.2. Energy Systems 18.4.2.3. Tourism 18.4.3. Impacts of Extreme Weather Events 18.4.3.1. Economic Losses due to Extreme Weather Events 18.4.3.2. Detection and Attribution of the Impacts of Single Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change 18.4.4. Human Health 18.4.5. Human Security 18.4.6. Livelihoods and Poverty 18.5. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts across Regions 18.6. Synthesis: Emerging Patterns of Observed Impacts of Climate Change 18.6.1. Approach 18.6.2. The Global Pattern of Regional Impacts 18.6.3. Cascading Impacts 18.6.4. Reasons for Concern 18.6.5. Conclusion 18.7. Gaps, Research Needs, Emerging Issues References Chapter Boxes 18-1. Quantitative Synthesis Assessment of Detection and Attribution Studies in Ecological Systems 18-2. Attribution of Mass Coral Bleaching Events to Climate Change 18-3. Differences in Detection and Attribution of Ecosystem Change on Land and in the Ocean 18-4. The Role of Sensitivity to Climate and Adaptation for Impact Models in Human Systems 18-5. Detection, Attribution, and Traditional Ecological Knowledge Frequently Asked Questions 18.1: Why are detection and attribution of climate impacts important? 18.2: Why is it important to assess impacts of all climate change aspects, and not only impacts of anthropogenic climate change? 18.3: What are the main challenges in detecting climate change impacts? 18.4: What are the main challenges in attributing changes in a system to climate change? 18.5: Is it possible to attribute a single event, like a disease outbreak, or the extinction of a species, to climate change? Executive Summary Evidence has grown since the AR4 that impacts of recent changes in climate on natural and human systems occur on all continents and across the oceans. This conclusion is strengthened both by new and longer-term observations, and through more extensive analyses of existing data. [18.3-18.6] Subject to Final Copyedit 2 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Reported impacts are caused by changes in climate that deviate from historical conditions, irrespective of the driver of climate change. Most reported impacts of climate change are attributed to warming and/or shifts in precipitation patterns. There is also emerging evidence of impacts of ocean acidification. Only some robust attribution studies and meta-analyses link responses in physical and biological systems to anthropogenic climate change. [18.1, 18.3-18.5] For many natural systems there is new or stronger evidence for substantial and wide-ranging impacts of climate change. These systems include the cryosphere, water resources, coastal systems and ecosystems on land and in the ocean. [18.3] Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle, and notably the availability of freshwater resources, have been observed on all continents and many islands. Glaciers continue to shrink worldwide, due to climate change (high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream. Climate change is the main driver of permafrost warming and thawing in both high-latitude and high-elevation mountain regions (high confidence). Hydrological systems have changed in many regions due to changing precipitation or melting cryosphere, affecting water resources, water quality and sediment transport (medium confidence). [18.3.1, 18.5, Figure 18-2] Across all climate zones and continents, the major role of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems has been confirmed by new and stronger evidence on phenology (high confidence), productivity (low confidence), distribution ranges (medium confidence) and other processes, affecting an increasing number of species and ecosystems. The majority of species extinctions and the recession of the Amazon forest cannot be attributed reliably to climate change. Major climate-driven changes occur in the Arctic region (high confidence), the boreal forest (low confidence) and many freshwater ecosystems (low to high confidence, region-dependent). [18.3.2, 18.5] Despite the known sensitivity of coastal systems to sea-level rise, local natural and human perturbations preclude a confident detection of sea level-related impacts of climate change. Climate change has had a major role in observed changes in abundance and distribution of many coastal species (medium confidence). [18.3.3] The physical and chemical properties of oceans (including the extent of Arctic sea ice) have changed significantly over the past six decades, due to anthropogenic climate change. Marine organisms have moved to higher latitudes, changed their depth distribution or their phenology, mostly as a result of the warming (high confidence). Coral reefs have experienced increased mass bleaching and mortality, driven mainly by warming (high confidence). [18.3.3., 18.3.4, 18.5, Table 18-8, Box 18-2] Substantial new evidence has been collected on sensitivities of human systems to climate change. Climate change related impacts on human systems are often dominated by effects of changing social and economic factors. [18.4] Production of wheat and maize globally and in many regional systems has been impacted by climate change over the past several decades (medium confidence). The impacts of climate change on rice and soybean have been small in major production regions and globally (medium confidence). Crop production has increased in some mid-latitude regions (United Kingdom, Northeast China) (high confidence). Evidence of observed climate change impacts on food systems other than agricultural crops and fisheries is limited. [18.4.1] Economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally, mostly due to increase in wealth and exposure, with a possible influence of climate change (low confidence). [18.4.3] There has been a shift from cold- to heat-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming (medium confidence), but despite many well-documented sensitivities of human health to other aspects of weather, clear evidence of an additional observed climate change impact on health outcomes is lacking. [18.4.4] Subject to Final Copyedit 3 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Livelihoods of indigenous peoples in the Arctic have been altered by climate change, through impacts on food security, traditional and cultural values (medium confidence). There is emerging evidence of climate change impacts on livelihoods of indigenous people in other regions. [18.4.6, Box 18-5, Table 18-9] There is emerging literature on the impact of climate change on poverty, working conditions, violent conflict, migration and economic growth from various parts of the world, but evidence for detection or attribution to climate change remains limited. [18.4] Regional impacts of climate change have now been observed at more locations than before, on all continents and across ocean regions. In many regions, impacts of climate change are now detected also in the presence of strong confounding factors such as pollution or land use change. [18.6.2] ‘Cascading’ impacts of climate change from physical climate through ecosystems on people can now be detected along chains of evidence. Examples include systems in the cryosphere, the oceans, and forests. In these cases, confidence in attribution to observed climate change decreases for effects further down the impact chain. [18.6.3] Evaluation of observed impacts of climate change supports risk assessment of climate change for four of the “Reasons for Concern” developed by earlier IPCC assessments. (i) Impacts related to Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems are now manifested for several systems (Arctic, glaciers on all continents, warm-water coral systems). (ii) High temperature spells have impacted one system with high confidence (coral reefs), indicating Risks Associated with Extreme Weather Events. Elsewhere, extreme events have caused increasing impacts and economic losses, but there is only low confidence in attribution to climate change for these. (iii) While impacts of climate change have now been documented globally with unprecedented coverage, observations are still insufficient to address the spatial or social disparities underlying the Risks Associated with the Distribution of Impacts. (iv) Risks Associated with Aggregated Impacts: large-scale impacts, indicated by unified metrics, have been found for the cryosphere (ice volume, high confidence), terrestrial ecosystems (net productivity, carbon stocks, medium-high confidence) and human systems (crop yields, disaster losses, low-medium confidence). (v) Risks Associated with Large-Scale Singular Events: impacts that demonstrate irreversible shifts with significant feedback potential in the Earth system have yet to be observed, but there is now robust evidence of early warning signals in observed impacts of climate change that indicate climate-driven large-scale regime shifts for the Arctic region and the tropical coral reef systems. [18.6.4] Though evidence is improving, there is a persistent gap in the knowledge regarding how certain parts of the world are being affected by observed climate change. Data collection and monitoring are in need to gain wider coverage. Research to improve the conceptual basis, timeliness and knowledge about detection and attribution is needed in particular for human systems. [18.2, 18.7] 18.1. Introduction This chapter synthesizes the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change. For policy makers and the public, detection and attribution of observed impacts will be a key element to determine the necessity and degree of mitigation and adaptation efforts. For most natural and essentially all human systems, climate is only one of many drivers that cause – other factors such as technological innovation, social and demographic changes, and environmental degradation frequently play an important role. Careful accounting of the importance of these and other confounding factors is therefore an important part of the analysis. At any given location, observed recent climate change has happened due to a combination of natural, longer-term fluctuations and anthropogenic alteration of forcings. In order to inform about the sensitivity of natural and human systems to ongoing climate change, the chapter assesses the degree to which detected changes in such systems can be attributed to all aspects of recent climate change. For the development of adaptation policies, it is less important Subject to Final Copyedit 4 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 whether the observed changes have been caused by anthropogenic climate change or by natural climate fluctuations. Where possible, the relative importance of anthropogenic drivers of climate change is assessed as well. 18.1.1. Scope and Goals of the Chapter Previous assessments, notably in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Rosenzweig et al., 2007) indicated that numerous physical and biological systems are affected by recent climate change. Due to a limited number of published studies, human systems received comparatively little attention in these assessments, with the exception of the food system, which is a coupled human/natural system. This knowledge base is growing rapidly, for all types of impacted systems, but the disequilibrium remains (see also 1.1.1, Figure 1-1). The great majority of published studies attributes local to regional changes in affected systems to local to regional climate change. The objective of the assessment was to cover the growing knowledge about detection and attribution of impacts as exhaustively as possible. In order to improve coverage across sectors and regions, the work was linked directly to the assessments made by most other chapters of the report. This ensured that knowledge gained in the expert assessments of any given sector, system or region found its way into this chapter. This chapter uses a consistent set of definitions for detection and attribution (elaborated in 18.2.1 – these differ from those found in some other chapters). This chapter first reviews methodologies and definitions for detection and attribution, including the uncertainties that are inherent in such assessments (18.2). It then assesses the scientific knowledge base that has developed since the AR4, focusing on the different types of impacted systems.The assessment covers the state of knowledge across major natural (18.3) and human systems (18.4), based largely on the respective sectoral chapters of this report (3-7, 10-13). Assessment in confidence of the existence and cause of impacts is made according to the definitions elaborated in 18.2.1.2. Based on this material, and on regional assessments mostly drawn from the regional chapters of this report (22-30), an assessment is made in order to highlight regional impacts and also to identify the regional pattern of observed impacts around the globe (18.5). A synthesis (18.6) and an analysis of research and knowledge gaps (18.7) conclude the chapter. 18.1.2. Summary of Findings from the AR4 Rosenzweig et al. (2007) reported that “observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.” In particular, they highlighted several areas where this general conclusion was supported by specific conclusions that were reported with high confidence: • Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground had increased ground instability in mountains and other permafrost regions; these changes had led to changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems and produced increases in the number and size of glacial lakes. • Some hydrological systems had been affected by increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharges; in particular many glacier- and snow-fed rivers and lakes had warmed, producing changes in their thermal structures and water quality. • Spring events had appeared earlier in the year so that some terrestrial ecosystems had moved poleward and upward; these shifts in plant and animal ranges were attributed to recent warming. • Shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance as well as changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation had been associated with rising water temperatures in some marine and freshwater systems. In terms of a global synthesis, this assessment noted “that it is likely that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems” (Rosenzweig et al., 2007). Though it was based on analyses of a very large number of observational datasets, the assessment noted a lack of geographic balance in data and literature on observed changes, with marked scarcity in low and middle income countries. Subject to Final Copyedit 5 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Evidence reported for human systems was scarce. Rosenzweig et al. (2007) concluded with medium confidence only that, “other effects of regional climate change on […] human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers”. They especially noted effects of temperature increases on agricultural and forestry management practices in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, various aspects of human health, and some human activities in snow- and glacier dominated environments. 18.2. Methodological Concepts for Detection and Attribution of Impacts of Climate Change There are substantial challenges to the detection and assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Virtually all such systems are affected by factors other than climate change. Isolating the impacts of climate change therefore requires controlling for the effects of other factors. The problem is further complicated by the ability of many systems to adapt to climate change. In this section we summarize the concepts underlying the detection and attribution of impacts of climate change and the requirements for addressing the main challenges. 18.2.1. Concepts and Approaches 18.2.1.1. Detecting and Attributing Change in the Earth System Detection and attribution is concerned with assessing the causal relationship between one or more drivers and a responding system. From an analysis perspective, the Earth system can be separated into three coupled subsystems, referred to here as the climate system, the natural system, and the human system (Figure 18-1). Separation of drivers from a responding system is a crucial element of formal detection and attribution analysis. Many external drivers may influence any system, including the changing climate and other confounding factors (Hegerl et al., 2010). Each of the three subsystems affects the other two directly or indirectly. For example, the human system may directly affect the natural system through deforestation, which in turn affects the climate system through changes in albedo; this can alter surface temperatures, which in turn feed back on natural and human systems. If an observed change in the human system impacts the climate system, we call this an anthropogenic driver of climate change. In this chapter we assess the impacts of climate change, where climate change refers to any long-term trend in climate, irrespective of its cause (see Glossary). The great majority of published scientific studies support this type of assessment only. Some studies directly address the detection of and attribution to anthropogenic climate change, relating observed impacts, via the climate, to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other human activities. Because of the complexity of the causal chain, investigation of this relationship is exceptionally challenging (Parmesan et al., 2011). The findings from such studies are explicitly highlighted in the chapter. [INSERT FIGURE 18-1 HERE Figure 18-1: Schematic of the subject covered in this chapter. The Earth system consists of three coupled and overlapping systems. Direct drivers of the human system on the climate system are denoted with a red arrow; some of these drivers may also directly affect natural systems. These effects can in turn influence other systems (dashed red arrows). Further influences of each of the systems on each other (confounding factors) that do not involve climate drivers are represented by blue arrows. Examples of drivers and their impacts are given in the table. Adapted from Stone et al. (2013).] 18.2.1.2. Concepts of Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Used in This Chapter “Detection of impacts” of climate change addresses the question of whether a natural or human system is changing beyond a specified baseline that characterizes its behaviour in the absence of climate change (Stone et al., 2013). The baseline may be stationary or non-stationary (e.g., due to land use change), and needs to be clearly defined. This definition of the detection of climate change impacts differs from that in WGI AR5 Chapter 10 which concerns any change in a climate variable, regardless of its cause. The definition adopted here focuses explicitly on Subject to Final Copyedit 6 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 the impact of climate change and not on trends related to other factors. The statement of detection is binary: an impact has or has not been detected. “Attribution” addresses the question of the magnitude of the contribution of climate change to a change in a system. In practice, an attribution statement indicates how much of the observed change is due to climate change with an associated confidence statement. Hence, attribution requires the evaluation of the contributions of all external drivers to the system change. In this chapter we simplify the assessment of this relative contribution by specifying whether observed climate change has had a “minor role” or a “major role” in the overall change in the impacted system. A major role is assessed if the past behavior of the system would have been grossly different in the absence of the observed climate change. 18.2.2. Challenges to Detection and Attribution Two broad challenges to the detection and attribution of climate change impacts relate to observations and process understanding. On the observational side, high quality, long-term data relating to natural and human systems and the multiple factors affecting them are rare. In addition, the detection and attribution of climate change impacts requires an understanding of the processes by which climate change, in conjunction with other factors, may affect the system in question (see also Box 18-1). These processes can be non-linear – for example, involving threshold effects (e.g., De Young and Jarre, 2009; Wassmann and Lenton, 2012)– and non-local in both space and time, involving lagged responses and trans-regional effects due, for example, to trade or migration. Conclusions about the effect of climate change on natural and human systems in this report are based on a synthesis of findings in the scientific literature. A potential problem arises through the preferential publication of papers reporting statistically significant findings (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). Methods exist for detecting and correcting for publication bias in formal quantitative synthesis analysis (Rothstein et al., 2005; Menzel et al., 2006), but these methods cannot be applied in all situations (Kovats et al., 2001). While the assessment in this chapter considers findings in the context of consistency across studies, regions, and similar systems, it has not been possible to quantitatively account for selection bias and to fully differentiate it from the lack of monitoring for some regions and systems. _____ START BOX 18-1 HERE _____ Box 18-1. Quantitative Synthesis Assessment of Detection and Attribution Studies in Ecological Systems The wealth of observations in ecological systems now permits the application of quantitative tools for synthesis assessment of detection and attribution (Root et al., 2005). These tools include associative pattern analyses (e.g., Rosenzweig et al., 2008) and regression analyses (Chen et al., 2011) which compare expected changes due to anthropogenic climate change across multiple studies against observed changes. Quantitative synthesis assessments have been particularly prominent in ecology, where measures of phenology (timing of seasonal events) and geographical range can be assembled across species into standardized indices (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Rosenzweig et al., 2008; Chen et al., 2011; Poloczanska et al., 2013; Rosenzweig and Neofotis, 2013). Confidence in the detection of general patterns of change in these indices can increase with the number of species / ecosystems observed, the number of independent studies, the geographical distribution of these observations, the temporal depth and resolution of the data, and the representativeness of species/ecosystems and locations studied. However, increasing spatial coverage, numbers of species, etc. does not a priori increase confidence that climate change is a more credible explanation for biological change than alternative hypotheses. Additional data can contribute to increased confidence in causal relationships, i.e. attribution, in a synthesis assessment when it provides new evidence for explicit testing against a credible range of alternative hypotheses. _____ END BOX 18-1 HERE _____ Subject to Final Copyedit 7 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.3. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Natural Systems The following section provides a synthesis of findings with regard to freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal systems, and oceans, which are documented in greater detail in Chapters 3, 4, 5, 6 and 30 respectively. It also incorporates evidence from regional chapters and further available literature. 18.3.1. Freshwater Resources Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle, and notably the availability of freshwater resources, have been observed on all continents and many islands, with different characteristics of change in different regions (WGI AR5 Chapters 2 and 10, WGII AR5 Chapters 3, 22-29). Figure 18-2 presents a synthesis of confidence in detection of gobal scale changes in freshwater resources and related systems (notably slope stability and erosion), and their attribution to climate change. Frozen components of freshwater systems tend to show higher confidence in detection and attribution, while components that are strongly influenced by non-climatic drivers, such as river flow, have lower confidence. [INSERT FIGURE 18-2 HERE Figure 18-2: Assessment of confidence in detection of observed climate change impacts in global freshwater systems over the past several decades, with confidence in attribution of a major role of climate change, based on expert assessment contained in this section 18.3.1 and augmented by subsections of Chapter 3 as indicated. Numbered symbols refer to: Cryosphere (18.3.1.1): 1 shrinking glaciers (3.2.2), 2 changes in glacier lakes, 3 erosion and degradation of arctic coastal permafrost, 4 degradation and thaw of lowland and mountain permafrost; Rivers, lakes and groundwater (18.3.1.2): 5 groundwater storage change (3.2.4), 6 changing river flow (3.2.3), 7 changing flood frequency or intensity (3.2.3), 8 reduction in lake and river ice duration or thickness in the Northern Hemisphere; Erosion and landslides (18.3.1.3): 9 Increasing erosion (3.2.6), 10 changes in shallow landslides (3.2.6), 11 increasing frequency of high-mountain rock failures. ] 18.3.1.1. The Cryosphere Most components of the cryosphere (glaciers, ice sheets and floating ice shelves, sea, lake and river ice, permafrost and snow) have undergone significant changes during recent decades (high confidence), related to climatic forcing (high confidence, WGI AR5 Chapter 4). It is likely that there is an anthropogenic component in the changes observed in Arctic sea ice, Greenland’ surface melt, glaciers, and snow cover (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.5). Glaciers continue to shrink worldwide, with regional variations. It is likely that a substantial part of the glacier mass loss is due to anthropogenic warming (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.5.2.2). Climate change has a major role in the absolute contribution of ice loss from glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise has increased since the early 20th Century and has now been close to 1 mm yr-1 for the past two decades (WGI AR5 Chapter 4.3.3, 4.4.3), around a third of total observed sea level rise. Recent mass loss of ice sheets and glaciers has accelerated isostatic land uplift in the North Atlantic Region (Jiang et al., 2010). In several high-moutain regions, slope instabilities have occurred as a consequence of recent glacier downwasting (high confidence, Vilímek et al., 2005; Haeberli and Hohmann, 2008; Huggel et al., 2011). The role of climate in changes in runoff decreases from major to minor as the distance from glaciers increases and other non-climatic factors become more important. Runoff from glacier areas has increased for catchments in western and southwestern China over the past several decades, and in western Canada and Europe (Collins, 2006; Zhang et al., 2008; Moore et al., 2009; Li et al., 2010; Pellicciotti et al., 2010; Stahl et al., 2010). Glacier runoff has decreased in the European Alps (Collins, 2006; Huss, 2011), in the central Andes of Chile (Casassa et al., 2009), and in the Cordillera Blanca (Baraer et al., 2012; medium confidence), a trend that has also been confirmed by qualitative observations made by local people (Bury et al., 2010; Carey et al., 2012a). For lake and river ice, there is generally high confidence in detection of, and a major role of climate change in later freeze-up and earlier break-up over the past 100+ years for several sites in the Northern Hemisphere, yet with regional differences and warmer regions showing higher sensitivities in interannual variability (Livingstone et al., 2010; Voigt et al., 2011; Subject to Final Copyedit 8 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Weyhenmeyer et al., 2011; Benson et al., 2012). Changes in lake and river ice can have effects on freshwater ecosystems, transport and traffic over frozen lakes and rivers, and ice induced floods during freeze-up and break-up events (Voigt et al., 2011). Some evidence exists in Europe that ice-jam floods were reduced during the last century due to reduced freshwater freezing (Svensson et al., 2006). The rate of Arctic sea ice decline has increased significantly during the first decade of the 21st Century, due to warming (WGI AR5 Chapter 4.2.2). It is very likely that at least some of the decline in Arctic sea ice extent can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.5.1). Observations by Inuit people in the Canadian Arctic confirm with high confidence the instrumental observations on the various changes of sea ice (see Box 18-5). Antarctic sea ice has slightly increased over the past 30 years, yet with strong regional differences (WGI AR5 Chapter 4.2.3). Combined in-situ and satellite observations indicate indicate a decline of 8% in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent since 1922 (WGI AR5 Chapter 4.5.2). A limited number of studies indicate an anthropogenic influence on snow cover reduction (high confidence; WGI AR5 Chapter 10.5.3), including a significant contribution of anthropogenic climate forcing on changes in snow pack and runoff timing between 1950 and 1999 in the Western US (Table 18-6, Barnett et al., 2008). Climate change generally exerts a major role on permafrost changes. Widespread permafrost warming and thawing, and active layer thickening in both, high-latitude low-lands and high-elevation mountain regions, have been observed over the past decades (high confidenc; WGI AR5 Chapter 4.7.2). Climate change impacts have been related to permafrost changes, including an increase of flow speed of rock glaciers and debris lobes in the European Alps and Alaska (high confidence), resulting in rockfall, debris flows and potential hazards to transport and energy systems (Kääb et al., 2007; Delaloye et al., 2010; Daanen et al., 2012), expansion, deepening and higher dynamics of thermokarst lakes and ponds in the Arctic (Rowland et al., 2010), and a doubled erosion rate of Alaska’s northern coastline over the past 50 years (high confidence;18.3.3.1, Table 18-8, Mars and Houseknecht, 2007; Forbes, 2011). Expansion of channel networks (Toniolo et al., 2009), increased river bank erosion (Costard et al., 2007) and an increase in hillslope erosion and landsliding in Northern Alaska since the 1980s (Gooseff et al., 2009) have all been related to climate. Warming and thawing of permafrost in Alaska has adversely affected transport and energy structures and their operation (Karl et al., 2009). Feedbacks and interactions complicate detection of drivers and effects. For example, drying of land surface due to permafrost degradation may cause an increase in wildfires, in turn resulting in a loss of ground surface insulation and change in surface albedo that accelerates permafrost thawing (Rowland et al., 2010; Forkel et al., 2012). 18.3.1.2. The Regional Water Balance The regional water balance is the net result of gains (precipitation, ice and snow melt, river inflow and groundwater recharge) and losses (evapotranspiration, water use and river outflow, and groundwater discharge). Impacts of climate change include reduced availability of freshwater for use (one of the variables defining drought) or excess water (floods). Evapotranspiration, being a function of solar radiation, surface temperature, vegetation cover, soil moisture and wind, is affected by the changing climate, but also by changing vegetation processes and land cover. At the global scale, human influence has contributed to large scale changes in precipitation patterns over land and, since the mid 20th century, in extreme precipitation (medium confidence; WGI AR5 Chapter 10.6.1.2, Min et al., 2011). More locations worldwide have experienced an increase than a decrease in heavy rainfall events, yet with significant regional and seasonal variations (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Westra et al., 2013). In some regions, however, there is medium confidence that anthropogenic climate change has affected streamflow and evapotranspiration (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.3.2.3). Change in river flow is a direct indicator of a changing regional water balance. Globally, about one-third of the top 200 rivers (ranked by river flow) show statistically significant trends during 1948–2004, with more rivers having reduced flow (45) than rivers with increased flow (Dai et al., 2009). Regional reductions in precipitation in southwestern South America are primarily due to internal variability (Dai, 2011, 27.2.1.1). River floods defined as impacts caused by the overtopping of river banks and levées have shown statistically significant increasing and Subject to Final Copyedit 9 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 decreasing trends in some regions. The role of climate change in these changes in uncertain, as they may reflect decadal climate variability and be affected by other counfounding factors such as human alteration of river channels and land use (3.2.7). In regions with detected increases in heavy rainfall events (North America, Europe), both increases and decreases in floods have been found (medium confidence in detection; Petrow and Merz, 2009; Villarini et al., 2009). In the UK, flood risk has increased due to anthropogenic forcing for events comparable to the 2000 floods (Kay et al., 2011; Pall et al., 2011, see also 18.4.4.2). Expanding or new lakes as a result of ice melt at the margin of many shrinking glaciers in the Alps of Europe, Himalayas, Andes and other mountain regions have altered the risk of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) and required substantial risk reduction measures in the 21st century (Huggel et al., 2011; Carey et al., 2012b). While there is no evidence for a change in frequency or magnitude of GLOFs (Seneviratne et al., 2012), climate change has had a major role in the substantial increase in glacial lake area in the eastern Himalaya region between 1990 and 2009 (Gardelle et al., 2011), and the similarly strong increase in lake numbers in the Andes of Peru in the second half of the 20th century (Carey, 2005), and in northern Patagonia from 1945 to 2011 (Loriaux and Casassa, 2013; high confidence in detection). New glacier lakes are not only an additional source of floods but also have become a tourist attraction, led to additional infrastructure, and stimulated assessment of potential for hydropower generation (Terrier et al., 2011). Since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, although a global trend can currently not be established (Seneviratne et al., 2012, 3.2.2 WGI AR5 2.6.2.2). Longer drought periods have affected groundwater recharge (Leblanc et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2013), but changes in groundwater storage are generally difficult to attribute to climate change, due to confounding factors from human activities (Table 3-1, Rodell et al., 2009; Taylor et al., 2013). Likewise, confounding factors do not permit to attribute observed changes in water quality to climate change (3.2.5, Kundzewicz and Krysanova, 2010). 18.3.1.3. Erosion, Landslides, and Avalanches Erosion and landsliding typically increase in phase with deglaciation in mountain areas (Ballantyne, 2002; Korup et al., 2012) and there is emerging evidence for this to occur during contemporary deglaciation (Schneider et al., 2011; Uhlmann et al., 2013). In the Western Himalaya, sediment flux has increased (medium confidence;Wulf et al., 2012) and been related to hydrologic extreme events over the past 60 years (low confidence;Malik et al., 2011), with important consequences for hydropower schemes. In China, a drastic decrease of sediment load in the Yangtze River was observed since the 1980s. There have been local variations in precipitation and runoff since 1950, but changes in sediment load are primarily attributed to over 50,000 dams and vegetation changes (medium confidence; Xu et al., 2008). There is clear evidence for decline in sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) basin since the early 1990s (Zhang et al., 2008). In the European Alps, no clear evidence exists so far for any change in frequency of shallow landslides and debris flows from recently deglaciated mountain areas (Jomelli et al., 2004; Stoffel and Huggel, 2012). In some cases climate change has had a major role in influencing frequency and magnitude of alpine shallow landslides and debris flows by altering sediment yield, e.g. from rockfall or disintegration of rock glaciers (low confidence; Lugon and Stoffel, 2010). Glacier shrinkage, permafrost degradation and high-temperature events have contributed to many high-mountain rock slope failures since the 1990s (medium confidence in major role of climate change; Allen et al., 2010; Ravanel and Deline, 2011; Schneider et al., 2011; Fischer et al., 2012; Huggel et al., 2012a). Rock slope failures have increased over this period in the Western Alps of Europe (high confidence), the New Zealand Alps (medium confidence), and globally (low confidence). Cascading processes of permafrost and ice-related landslides impacting lakes and downstream areas have been observed in many high-mountain regions, causing major damages and risk reduction measures (high confidence), with climate change exerting a major role (medium confidence; e.g., Xin et al., 2008; Bajracharya and Mool, 2009; Künzler et al., 2010; Carey et al., 2012a; Huggel et al., 2012b). For other landslide types than the above, there is no clear evidence that their frequency or magnitude has changed over the Subject to Final Copyedit 10 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 past decades (Huggel et al., 2012b). In general, detection of changes in the occurrence of landslides is complicated by incomplete inventories, both in time and space, and inconsistency in terminology. Physical understanding suggests that climate change has a major role in changes of snow avalanche activity but no such changes have been reported so far (medium confidence; Laternser and Schneebeli, 2002; Voigt et al., 2011), except for the French Alps (Eckert et al., 2013; medium confidence in detection). The detection of changes in snow avalanche impacts, such as fatalities and property loss, is difficult over the past decades due to changes in snow sport activities and avalanche defense measures. 18.3.2. Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems As documented by previous IPCC reports (notably Rosenzweig et al., 2007), climate-driven changes in terrestrial and inland water systems are widespread and numerous. Confidence in such detection of change is often very high, reflecting high agreement among many independent sources of evidence of change, and robust evidence that changes in ecosystems or species are outside of their natural variation. Confidence in attribution to climate change is also often high, due to process understanding of responses to climate change, or strong correlations with climate trends and where confounding factors are understood to have limited importance (4.3.2, 4.3.3, Figure 4-4). The scientific literature in this field is growing quickly, detailed traceability is provided in Chapter 4. Organisms respond to changing climate in a multitude of ways, including through their phenology (the timing of key life history events such as flowering in plants or migration of birds), productivity (the assimilation of carbon and nutrients in biomass), spatial distribution, mortality / extinction, or by invading new territory. Noticeable changes may occur at the level of individual organisms, ecosystems, landscapes, or by modification of entire biomes. Organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a variable environment, and they are capable to adapt to gradual change to some degree. Assessing confidence in the detection of such change involves therefore assumptions about natural variability in these ecosystems, while assessment of confidence in the attribution of detected change to climate drivers (or CO2) implies the assessment of confounding drivers such as pollution or land use change. 18.3.2.1. Phenology Since the AR4 there has been a further substantial increase in observations, showing that hundreds of (but not all) species of plants and animals have changed functioning to some degree over the last decades to centuries on all continents (high confidence due to robust evidence but only medium agreement across all species; 4.3.2.1, Menzel et al., 2006; Cook et al., 2012b; Peñuelas et al., 2013). New satellite-based analyses confirm earlier trends, showing, for example, that the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere has advanced by 5.4 days from 1982 to 2008 and its end has been delayed by 6.6 days (Jeong et al., 2011). Significant changes have been detected, by direct observation, for many different species, for example, for amphibians (e.g., Phillimore et al., 2010), birds (e.g., Pulido, 2007; Devictor et al., 2008), mammals (e.g., Adamík and Král, 2008), vascular plants (e.g., Cook et al., 2012a), freshwater plankton (Adrian et al., 2009) and others (4.3.2.1); a number of new meta-analyses have been carried out summarizing this literature (e.g., Cook et al., 2012a). Attribution of these changes to climate change is supported by more refined analyses that consider also the regional changes in several variables such as temperature, growing season length, precipitation, snow cover duration and others, as well as experimental evidence (Xu et al., 2013). The high confidence in attributing many observed changes in phenology to changing climate is a result of these analyses, as well as of improved knowledge of confounding factors such as land use and land management (see also 4.3.2.1). 18.3.2.2. Productivity and Biomass Many terrestrial ecosystems are now net sinks for carbon over much of the Northern Hemisphere and also in parts of the Southern Hemisphere (high confidence, see also 4.3.2.2 and 4.3.2.3). This is shown, for example, by inference from atmospheric chemistry, but also by direct observations of increased tree growth in many regions including Subject to Final Copyedit 11 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Europe, the United States, tropical Africa and the Amazon. During the decade 2000 to 2009, global land net primary productivity was approx. 5% above the preindustrial level, contributing to a net carbon sink on land of 2.6 ± 1.2 Pg C yr-1 (Raupach et al., 2008; Le Quéré et al., 2009, 4.3.3.2, WGI AR5 Chapter 6), despite ongoing deforestation. Forests have increased in biomass for several decades in Europe (Luyssaert et al., 2010) and the USA (Birdsey et al., 2006). These trends are in part due to nitrogen deposition, afforestation and altered land management which makes direct attribution of the increase to climate change difficult. The degree to which rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations contribute to this trend remains a particularly important source of uncertainty (Raupach et al., 2008). Canadian managed forests increased in biomass only slightly during 1998-2008, because growth was offset by significant losses due to fires and beetle outbreaks (Stinson et al., 2011). In the Amazon forest biomass has generally increased in recent decades, dropping temporarily after a drought in 2005 (Phillips et al., 2009). A global analysis of long-term measurements suggests that soil respiration has increased over the past two decades by approximately 0.1 Pg C yr-1, some of which may be due to increased productivity (Bond-Lamberty and Thomson, 2010). Man-made impoundments in freshwater ecosystems represent an increasing and short-lived additional carbon store with conservative annual estimates of 0.16 – 0.2 Pg C yr-1 (Cole et al., 2007). 18.3.2.3. Species Distributions and Biodiversity Each species responds differently to a changing environment, therefore the composition of species, genotypes, communities and even ecosystems varies in different ways from place to place, in response to climate change. The consequences are changing ranges of species, changing composition of the local species pool, invasions, mortality and ultimately extinctions. For different species and species groups, detected range shifts vary, and so do the confidence of detection and the degree of attribution to climate change. The number of species studied has considerably increased since the AR4. Overall, many terrestrial species have recently moved, on a global average, 17 km poleward and 11 m up in altitude per decade (e.g., Europe, North America, Chile, Malaysia), which corresponds to predicted range shifts due to warming (Chen et al., 2011) and is 2 to 3 times faster than previous estimates (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Fischlin et al., 2007), with high confidence in detection. Europe, forest species are moving up in altitude, probably due to climate warming at the end of the 20th century (Gehrig-Fasel et al., 2007; Lenoir et al., 2008). Species with short life cycles and high dispersal capacity – such as butterflies (high confidence in a major role of climate change) – are generally tracking climate more closely than longer-lived species or those with more limited dispersal such as trees (Devictor et al., 2012; medium confidence in a major role of climate change). There are many less well-studied species for which detection of change and its attribution to climate change are more uncertain. Changes in abundance, as measured by changes in the population size of individual species or shifts in community structure within existing range limits, have occurred in response to recent global warming (Thaxter et al., 2010; Bertrand et al., 2011; Naito and Cairns, 2011; Rubidge et al., 2011; Devictor et al., 2012; Tingley et al., 2012; Vadadi-Fülöp et al., 2012; Cahill et al., 2013; Ruiz-Labourdette et al., 2013), but due to confounders, confidence in a major role of climate change is often low. Across the world, species extinctions are at or above the highest rates of species extinction in the fossil record (high confidence; Barnosky et al., 2011). However, only a small fraction of observed species extinctions have been attributed to climate change — most have been ascribed to non-climatic factors such as invasive species, overexploitation or habitat loss (Cahill et al., 2013). For those species where climate change has been invoked as a causal factor in extinction (such as for the case of Central American amphibians), there is low agreement among investigators concerning the importance of climate variation in driving extinction and even less agreement that extinctions were caused by climate change (Pounds et al., 2006; Kiesecker, 2011). Confidence in the suggested attribution of extinctions across all species to climate change is very low (see also 4.3.2.5). Species invasions have increased over the last several decades world-wide, notably in freshwater ecosystems (very high confidence), often causing biodiversity loss or other negative impacts. There is only low confidence that species invasions have generally been assisted by recent climatic trends because of the overwhelming importance of human facilitated (intentional or non-intentional) dispersal in the transfer from the area of origin. Once established in a new environment, many introduced species have recently become invasive due to climate change (medium to high confidence, depending on the taxon (see also 4.2.4.6). Subject to Final Copyedit 12 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.3.2.4. Impacts on Major Systems Field and satellite measurements indicate substantial changes in freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems (often linked to permafrost thawing) in many areas of the Arctic tundra (high confidence; Hinzman et al., 2005; Axford et al., 2009; Jia et al., 2009; Post et al., 2009; Prowse and Brown, 2010; Myers-Smith et al., 2011; Walker et al., 2012). Vegetation productivity has systematically increased over the past few decades in both North America and northern Eurasia (Goetz et al., 2007; Jia et al., 2009; Elmendorf et al., 2012). Most sub-populations of the polar bear are declining in number (Vongraven and Richardson, 2011). These changes correspond to expectations, based on experiments, models and paleoecological responses to past warming, of broad-scale boreal forest encroachment into tundra, a process which takes decades and which would have very large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. The particular strength of warming over the last 50 years for most of the Arctic further facilitates attribution of a major role of climate change (high confidence). The change affects a significant area of the tundra biome and can be considered an early warning for an ongoing regime shift (4.3.3.4, Figure 4-4). For the boreal forest, increases in tree mortality are observed in many regions, including wide-spread dieback related to insect infestations and/or fire disturbances in North America (Fauria and Johnson, 2008; Girardin and Mudelsee, 2008; Kasischke et al., 2010; Turetsky et al., 2010; Wolken et al., 2011) and in Siberia (Soja et al., 2007), but there is low confidence in detection of a global trend. Many areas of boreal forest have experienced productivity declines (high confidence; Goetz et al., 2007; Parent and Verbyla, 2010; Beck and Goetz, 2011), related to warming-induced drought, specifically the greater drying power of air (Williams et al., 2012), inducing photosynthetic down- regulation of boreal tree species not adapted to the warmer conditions (Welp et al., 2007; Bonan, 2008). Conversely, productivity has increased along the boreal-tundra ecotone where more mesic (moist) conditions may be generating the expected warming-induced positive growth response (McGuire et al., 2007; Goldblum and Rigg, 2010; Beck and Goetz, 2011). Overall, these multiple impacts in the boreal forest biome can be considered an early warning for an ongoing regime shift only with low confidence (4.3.3.1.1, Figure 4-4). Many of the aforementioned changes take place in the tundra-boreal ecotone, affecting both biomes significantly (Box 4-4, Figure 4-10). In tropical forests, climate change effects are difficult to identify against the confounding effects of direct human influence as is well illustrated for the Amazon forest (Davidson et al., 2012) but also applies elsewhere. Since AR4, there is new evidence of more frequent severe drought episodes in the Amazon region that are associated with observed sea surface temperature increases in the tropical North Atlantic (medium confidence; Marengo et al., 2011a). There is low confidence, however, that these changes can be attributed to climate change (4.3.3.1.3). There is medium confidence that tree mortality in the Amazon region is has increased due to severe drought and increased forest fire occurrence and low confidence that this can be attributed to warming (4.3.3.1.3, Figure 4-4, Figure 4-8). In freshwater ecosystems of most continents and climate zones, rising temperatures have been linked to shifts in invertebrate and fish community composition, especially in headwater streams where species are more sensitive to warming (Brown et al., 2007; Durance and Ormerod, 2007; Chessman, 2009; 4.3.3.3; high confidence in detection, low confidence in a major role of climate change due to numerous confounding factors). Long-term shifts in macroinvertebrate communities have been observed in European lakes where temperatures have increased (Burgmer et al., 2007). 18.3.3. Coastal Systems and Low Lying Areas Coastal systems are influenced by many anthropogenic and natural processes. Important climate-related drivers include changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and pH; and sea level (see Table 5-2). In coastal waters, both annual and seasonal changes in temperature tend to be larger than the average rate for the open ocean (5.3.3). Sea surface temperatures have increased significantly during the past 30 years along more than 70% of the world’s coastlines, with large spatial and seasonal variation, and the frequency of extreme temperature events in coastal waters has changed in many areas (Lima and Wethey, 2012). Seawater pH spans larger ranges and exhibits higher variability Subject to Final Copyedit 13 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 near coastlines, and anthropogenic ocean acidification can be enhanced or reduced by coastal geochemical processes (Borges and Gypens, 2010; Feely et al., 2010; Duarte et al., 2013, see also Box CC-OA). While it is likely that extreme sea levels have increased globally since the 1970s, mainly as a result of mean sea level rise due in part to anthropogenic warming (WGI AR5 3.7.5, 3.7.6; WGI AR5 10.4.3), local sea level trends are also influenced by factors such as regional variability in ocean and atmospheric circulation, subsidence, isostatic adjustment, coastal erosion, and coastal modification (see also 5.3.2). As a consequence, the detection of the impact of climate change in observed changes in relative sea level remains challenging (Nicholls et al., 2007; Nicholls et al., 2009; Menéndez and Woodworth, 2010). An exception is lower sea level in regions of isostatic rebound in response to reduced ice cover due to climate change (Kopp et al., 2010; Tamisiea and Mitrovica, 2011). In these regions, climate change has played a major role in the lowering sea level (medium confidence). 18.3.3.1. Shoreline Erosion and other Coastal Processes Throughout the world, the rate of shoreline erosion is increasing (5.4.2.1). While processes related to climate change, such as rising mean sea levels (Leatherman et al., 2000; Ranasinghe and Stive, 2009), more frequent extreme sea levels (Woodworth et al., 2011), or permafrost degradation and sea ice retreat (Forbes, 2011) can be expected to enhance global erosion, there are multiple drivers involved in shoreline erosion that are unrelated to climate change including long shore sediment transport, the diversion of sediments by dams, subsidence due to resource extraction, mining and coastal engineering and development (see also Table 5-3). Due to the fragmentary nature of the information available, and to the multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors contributing to coastal erosion, confidence in detection of a climate change contribution to observed shoreline changes is very low, with the exception of Polar Regions (Table 18-8, Mars and Houseknecht, 2007; Forbes, 2011). Coastal lagoons and estuaries, as well as deltas are highly susceptible to alterations of sediment input and accumulation (Syvitski et al., 2005; Ravens et al., 2009), processes that can be influenced by climate change via changes in mean and extreme sea levels, storminess, and precipitation. However, the primary drivers of widespread observed changes in those systems are human drivers other than climate change so that there is very low confidence in the detection of impacts related to climate change (5.4.2). Coastal aquifers are crucial for the water supply of densely populated coastal areas, in particular in small island environments and dry climates. Aquifer recharge is sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation; and rising sea levels and saltwater overwash from storm surges can contribute to saline intrusion into groundwater (Post and Abarca, 2010; Terry and Falkland, 2010; White and Falkland, 2010, see also 29.3.2, Table 18-8). However, groundwater extraction for coastal settlements and agriculture is the main cause for widely observed groundwater degradation in coastal aquifers (e.g., White et al., 2007a; Barlow and Reichard, 2010). It is not yet possible to detect the impact of climate change on coastal aquifers with any degree of confidence (Rozell and Wong, 2010; White and Falkland, 2010). Changes in water column mixing have combined with other factors such as nutrient loading to drive down oxygen concentrations and increase the number and extent of hypoxic zones (Vaquer-Sunyer and Duarte, 2011). These zones are characterized by very low oxygen and high CO2 levels and, in some cases, exert strong local and regional effects on marine biota such as distribution shifts, habitat contraction or loss, and fish kills (Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008). The operation of other factors makes the detection of a climate change impact on the frequency, distribution, and intensity of hypoxia possible with only medium confidence and it is difficult to assess the relative magnitude of this impact (see Table 18-1). 18.3.3.2. Coastal Ecosystems Coastal habitats and ecosystems experience cumulative impacts of land- and ocean-based anthropogenic stressors (Halpern et al., 2008). Most coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves, rocky reefs and shelves have undergone substantial changes over the course of the last century. Fishing and other extractive activities, land use changes, and Subject to Final Copyedit 14 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 pollution have been responsible for a large proportion of these historical changes (Lotze et al., 2006). Biological responses to changes in the temperature, chemistry, and circulation of the ocean are complex and often interact with other anthropogenic factors. Coral reefs have been degraded due both to local anthropogenic factors such as fishing, land use changes, and pollution and to ocean warming related to climate change and also possibly to acidification (see Box CC-CR). Over the past 30 years, mass coral bleaching has been detected with very high confidence on all coasts, and warming is a major contributor (high confidence, for further discussion see Box 18-2, and Box CC-OA). Changes in abundance and distribution of rocky shore species have been observed since the late 1940s in the North East Atlantic (Hawkins et al., 2008), and the role of temperature has been demonstrated by experiments and modelling (Poloczanska et al., 2008; Wethey and Woodin, 2008; e.g., Peck et al., 2009; Somero, 2012, see also 5.4.2.2). Globally, the ranges of many rocky shore species have shifted up to 50 km per decade, much faster than most recorded shifts of terrestrial species (Helmuth et al., 2006; Poloczanska et al., 2013, see also Box 18-3). However, distinguishing the response of these communities to climate change from those due to other natural and anthropogenic causes is challenging. Weak warming, overriding effects of confounding factors or biogeographic barriers can explain the fact that geographical distribution of some species did not change over the past decades (Helmuth et al., 2002; Rivadeneira and Fernández, 2005; Helmuth et al., 2006; Poloczanska et al., 2011). Ocean warming has contributed to observed range shifts in vegetated coastal habitats such as coastal wetlands, mangrove forests and seagrass meadows (5.4.2.3). Poleward expansion of mangrove forests, consistent with expected behavior under climate change, has been observed in the Gulf of Mexico (Perry and Mendelssohn, 2009; Comeaux et al., 2012; Raabe et al., 2012), and New Zealand (Stokes et al., 2010). High temperatures have impacted seagrass biomass in the Atlantic Ocean (Reusch et al., 2005; Díez et al., 2012; Lamela-Silvarrey et al., 2012), the Mediterranean Sea (Marbà and Duarte, 2010) and Australian waters (Rasheed and Unsworth, 2011). Extreme weather events also contributed to the overall degradation of seagrass meadows in a Portuguese estuary (Cardoso et al., 2008). Decline in kelp populations attributed to ocean warming has occurred off the north coast of Spain (Fernández, 2011), as well as in southern Australia, where the poleward range expansion of some herbivores have also contributed to observed kelp decline (Ling, 2008; Ling et al., 2009; Ling et al., 2009; Johnson et al., 2011; Wernberg et al., 2011; Wernberg et al., 2011). The spread of subtropical invasive macroalgal species (e.g., Lima et al., 2007) may be adding to the stresses temperate seagrass meadows experience from ocean warming. Extreme temperature events can alter marine and coastal communities, as shown e.g. for the European heatwave 2003 (Garrabou et al., 2009), and the early 2011 heat wave off the Australian West Coast (Wernberg et al., 2012). In summary, there is high confidence in the detection of the impact of climate change on the abundance and distribution of a range of coastal species and medium confidence that climate change has played a major role in many cases. In specific cases, such as the decline of salt marshes and mangroves, the impact of climate change has been detected with very low confidence due to the overriding effect of land use changes, pollution, and other factors unrelated to climate change. 18.3.3.3. Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Total damages from coastal flooding have increased globally over the last decades (high confidence) however, with exposure and subsidence constituting the major drivers, confidence in detection of a climate change impact is very low (Seneviratne et al., 2012, see also 5.4.3.2, 5.4.4). Recent global (e.g., Menéndez and Woodworth, 2010; Woodworth et al., 2011) and regional studies (e.g., Marcos et al., 2009; Haigh et al., 2010; Haigh et al., 2011) have found increases in extreme sea levels consistent with mean sea level trends (see also Table 5-2), indicating that the increasing frequency of extreme water levels affecting coastal infrastructures observed so far is related to rising mean sea level rather than to changes in the behaviour of severe storms. While vulnerability of coastal settlements and infrastructure to future climate change, in particular sea level rise and coastal flooding, is widely accepted and Subject to Final Copyedit 15 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 well-documented (see 5.5), there is a shortage of studies discussing the role of climate change in observed impacts on coastal systems. Increases in saltwater intrusion and flooding have been observed in low-lying agricultural areas of deltaic regions and small islands, but the contribution of climate change to this is not clear (e.g., Rahman et al., 2011, see also 5.4.3.3, 5.4.2.5). While both climate change impacts on physiological and ecological properties of fish (e.g., Barange and Perry, 2009, see also 18.3.4), and vulnerability of coastal communities and fisherfolks to climate fluctuations and change (Badjeck et al., 2010; Cinner et al., 2012) are well established in the literature, there is limited evidence for observed effects of climate change on coastal fishery operations (see also 18.4.1.2). _____ START BOX 18-2 HERE _____ Box 18-2. Attribution of Mass Coral Bleaching Events to Climate Change A critical source of energy for the maintenance and growth of coral is provided by symbiotic brown algae. Coral bleaching occurs when these symbionts leave their host. Bleaching events have deleterious impacts on corals and, depending on their severity and duration, can cause death. It is known that thermal stress can trigger coral bleaching (Muscatine, 1986; Hoegh-Guldberg and Smith, 1989; Jones et al., 1998). Mass bleaching events that affect entire reefs or coastal regions can occur when local or regional temperatures exceed the typical summer maximum for a period of a few weeks (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Baker et al., 2008; Strong et al., 2011). The effect of elevated temperature is exacerbated by strong solar irradiance (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Since 1980, mass coral bleaching events have occurred throughout the tropics and sub-tropics at a rate without precedent in the literature (see also CC-CR, CC-OA, 5.4.2.4). These events have often been followed by mass mortality (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Baker et al., 2008). In the very warm year of 1998, for example, mass bleaching occurred in almost every part of the tropics and sub-tropics and resulted in the loss of a substantial fraction of the world's corals (Wilkinson et al., 1999). A large-scale bleaching event also occurred in the Caribbean during 2005 (Eakin et al., 2010). Declining water quality, coastal development, increased fishing, and even tourism have also been implicated in the decline of coral communities over the past 50 years (Bryant et al., 1998; Gardner et al., 2003; Bruno and Selig, 2007; Sheppard et al., 2010; Burke et al., 2011; De'ath et al., 2012). However, given the scope of recent mass bleaching events, their co-occurence with elevated temperatures, and a physiological understanding of the role of temperature in bleaching, there is very high confidence in the detection of the impact of climate change, and high confidence in the finding that climate change has played a major role. _____ END BOX 18-2 HERE _____ 18.3.4. Oceans Since 1970, ocean temperatures have increased by around 0.1 °C decade-1 in the upper 75 m and approximately 0.015 °C decade-1 at 700m (see 30.3.1.1). It is very likely that the increase in global ocean heat content observed in the upper 700 m since the 1970s has a substantial contribution from anthropogenic forcing (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.4.1). The increased flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean has reduced the average pH of sea water by about 0.1 pH units over the past century, with the greatest reduction occurring at high latitudes (see also Box CC- OA). These changes have been attributed to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases as result of human activities (very high confidence, WGI AR5 Chapter 10.4.4). Changes in wind speed, upwelling, water column stratification, surface salinity, ocean currents, sand oxygen depth profile have also been been detected with at least medium confidence (WGI AR5 Chapter 3; Figure 30-5, 30-6). Changes in the physical and chemical nature of ocean environments are predicted to have impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems, with many already having been observed across most ocean regions (6.2, 6.3, 30.4, 30.5). However, the detection of these predicted changes and the assessment of the role of climate change in them Subject to Final Copyedit 16 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 are complicated by the influence of long-term variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The fragmentary nature of ocean observations and the influence of confounding factors such as fishing, habitat alteration and pollution also represent significant challenges to detection and attribution (Hoegh‐Guldberg et al., 2011; Parmesan et al., 2011, see also Box 18-3). 18.3.4.1. Impacts on Ocean System Properties and Marine Organisms and Ecosystems Greater thermal stratification in many regions has reduced ocean ventilation and mixing depth. As this reduces the availability of inorganic nutrients, it can reduce primary productivity in surface layers. However, trends in primary production from different observational methods disagree (6.1.1, 6.3.4, Box CC-PP). Coastal upwelling has increased in some regions bringing greater concentrations of nutrients to surface waters, boosting productivity and enhancing fisheries output (see 30.5.5). Increases in productivity also occurred with warming and sea ice loss at high latitude (Table 18-1, medium confidence). Poleward shifts in the distributions of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and benthic invertebrates related to climate change have been detected with high confidence in the well-studied NE Atlantic. There is also high confidence that climate change has played a major role in these shifts (Box 6-1, 6.3, 30.5.1). In many regions, temperature exerts the strongest influence on ecosystems and the responses of ecological systems to changing temperature are well-studied. However, it is often difficult to clearly identify the interaction of temperature with other factors (6.3.5). Some studies have found changes in the abundance of fish species that are consistent with regional warming, with differences in response between species, in line with differential specializations of coexisting species (6.2, 6.3.1, see also Pörtner, 2012). Anthropogenic influences modulate responses to climate, e.g., due to exploitation status (Tasker, 2008; Belkin, 2009; Overland et al., 2010; Schwing et al., 2010), with more heavily exploited species being more sensitive to environmental variability in general, including temperature trends and extremes (Hsieh et al., 2005; Stige et al., 2006; Hsieh et al., 2008). Laboratory experiments have shown that a broad range of marine organisms (e.g. corals, fish, pteropods coccolithophores, and macroalgae), physiological processes (e.g., skeleton formation, gas exchange, reproduction, growth and neural function), and ecosystems processes (e.g., productivity, reef building and erosion) are sensitive to changes in pH and carbonate chemistry of seawater (6.2, Box CC-OA). However, few field studies have been able to detect specific changes in marine ecosystems to ocean acidification due to the inability to identify the effect of ocean acidification from ocean warming or local factors (Wootton et al., 2008; De Moel et al., 2009; Moy et al., 2009; Bednaršek et al., 2012, see also 6.3.2). [INSERT TABLE 18-1 HERE Table 18-1: Observed changes in ocean system properties and their effects, with confidence levels for the detection of the effect of climate change and an assessment of the magnitude of its role.] There has been a substantial increase in the number of studies documenting significant changes in marine species and processes since the AR4. A new meta-analysis using a database of long-term observations from peer-reviewed studies of biological systems, with nearly half of the time series extending prior to 1960, shows that more than 80% of observed responses are consistent with regional climate change (see 30.4, Box CC-MB). Poloczanska et al. (2013) argue that the high consistency of marine species’ responses across geographic regions (coastal to open ocean, polar to tropical), taxonomic groups (phytoplankton to top predators), and types of responses (distribution, phenology, abundance) reported in their analysis support the detection of a widespread impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems (see 30.4 and 30.5 for more detail). Table 18-2 gives examples of the manifestation of climate change on marine species and ecosystems. [INSERT TABLE 18-2 HERE Table 18-2: Observed changes in marine species and ecosystems, with confidence levels for the detection of the effect of climate change and an assessment of the magnitude of its role (see also 6.2, 6.3, 30.4, Box CC-MB).] Subject to Final Copyedit 17 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.3.4.2. Observed Climate Change Effects across Ocean Regions Climate change has affected physical properties across the ocean, with regional variations (Table 30-1; Figures 30-2 to 30-5; WGI AR5 Chapter 3). Confidence in the detection and attribution of these impacts also varies regionally, reflecting differences in system understanding, data availability, influence of long term natural variability and the impact of factors unrelated to climate change. The attribution of changes in heat content to climate change is less certain regionally than globally, but warming has been detected with high confidence in all basins except Eastern boundary upwelling systems (Table 30-1, Figure 30-2), Recent research shows declining oxygen levels (medium confidence, 30.3.2.3) and deep penetration of warming in some regions. Regional estimates of CO2 uptake are in line with global estimates, and ocean acidification has been detected with high confidence in most regions (WGI AR5 Chapter 3.8.2, 30.3.2.2). The high latitude spring bloom systems of the Northern Hemisphere show strong warming and associated effects (see above). In the North Pacific, the Bering Sea has undergone major changes in recent decades as a result of climate variability, climate change and fishing impacts (Litzow et al., 2008; Mueter and Litzow, 2008; Jin et al., 2009; Hunt et al., 2010). Loss of sea ice has led to the retreat of the cold pool in the Bering Sea, and northward expansion of productivity. Marginal seas such as the East China Sea are also warming rapidly, with subsequent impacts such as declining primary productivity and fisheries yields as well as other ecological changes (30.5.4.1). However, other human pressures including over-fishing, habitat alteration, and nutrient loading are important contributing factors and it is difficult to disentangle these from the impacts of climate change. Semi-enclosed seas such as the Black and Baltic Seas and the Arabian / Persian Gulf show differing patterns of change over the past decades (30.5.3.1). Expansions of hypoxic zones in the Baltic and Black Seas have been detected. Although there is high confidence that climate change has had a role, its magnitude is difficult to assess in light of other contributing factors. Coral reefs in the Arabian / Persian Gulf and Red Seas appear to have experienced widespread bleaching in 1996 and 1998 associated with elevated temperature with high confidence that climate change has played a major role. Warming of the Mediterranean has been associated with mass mortality events as well as invasions and spread of new warm water species, resulting in the ’tropicalisation’ of fauna with high confidence in a major role for climate change (30.5.3.1.5). In many tropical regions and the subtropical gyres of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic, periodic heat stress related to climate change has combined with other local stresses to cause mass coral bleaching and mortality (see also Box CC-CR, 30.5). In other regions, such as the California Current upwelling system, there is very high confidence in both the detection and attribution of ecological changes associated with climate change, but separating the effects of ENSO and the PDO from that of anthropogenic climate change is not possible. In overall terms, attributing observed local and regional changes in marine species and ecosystems to climate change remains an important question for on-going research (Stock et al., 2010). _____ START BOX 18-3 HERE _____ Box 18-3. Differences in Detection and Attribution of Ecosystem Change on Land and in the Ocean Marine and terrestrial ecosystems differ in fundamental ways. Gradients in turbulence, light, pressure and nutrients uniquely drive fundamental characteristics of organisms and ecosystems in the ocean. While the critical factor for transporting nutrients to marine primary producers is ocean mixing driven by wind, water is the primary mode for transporting nutrients to land plants. In addition to these characteristics, marine ecosystems are often more technically difficult and costly to explore than terrestrial equivalents, which explains the low number and shorter scientific studies of marine ecosystems (Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010). The latter has restricted the extent to which changes within the Ocean can be detected and attributed. Subject to Final Copyedit 18 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Impacts of climate change in terrestrial and marine systems differ significantly for the same types of measures, e.g., species phenology and range shifts, leading to differences in expert's interpretations of the data and possibly divergent levels of confidence in detection and attribution. There are also fundamental differences in exposure of organisms to recent warming, their biological responses and our ability to detect change through observations. Changes in temperature of ocean systems have generally been less than those of terrestrial ecosystems over the last four decades (Burrows et al., 2011). Furthermore, despite higher variability the horizontal spatial gradient of temperature change (°C km-1) is generally much higher in terrestrial ecosystems than in marine ecosystems. All else being equal, the net result is that species have generally needed to move much shorter distances in terrestrial ecosystems to stay within their preferred climates, also due to the influence of the topography such as mountain ranges (Burrows et al., 2011), although many marine species can potentially exploit strong vertical thermal gradients to attenuate the need for range shifts in response to warming. Species and ecosystems may respond very differently to these climate signals in ways that influence the ability to detect change. For example, a comparison of ectotherm species (i.e., species that do not actively regulate their body temperatures such as reptiles and fish) indicates that marine species' ranges have tracked recent warming at both their poleward and equatorial range limits, while many other terrestrial species' ranges have only tracked warming at their poleward range limits (Sunday et al., 2012). Biological processes influencing phenological shifts may also differ substantially between systems. For example, the effect of climate on the timing of flowering of terrestrial plants at high latitudes is only moderately influenced by confounding effects, whereas the timing of phytoplankton blooms in high latitude marine systems is highly dependant on ocean temperature and associated stratification and changes in nutrient availability. _____ END BOX 18-3 HERE _____ 18.4. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Human and Managed Systems Observed impacts on human systems have received considerably less attention in previous IPCC reports and the scientific literature, compared to observed impacts on natural systems. Human systems’ “normal state in the absence of climate change” is almost never stationary. Confounders other than climate change have been and continue to drive the normal evolution of these systems with climate often playing a relatively minor role. Further, monitoring in many of the systems have been and continue to be inadequate. It is therefore difficult to detect and attribute the signal of climate change in the majority of human systems, food production systems constituting one noteworthy exception. There is emerging literature estimating the sensitivity to climate of many sectors within the human system (see Box 18-4), yet climate impacts are often not detectable over the impacts from non-climate confounders. For some human systems, the clearest situations where a climate signal had a detectable and sometimes attributable impact are during extreme weather events. Impacts of extreme events, and single event attribution are therefore discussed in a separate section below, and the discussion is expanded to include responses to extreme weather for some sectors. Overall, the literature has made significant progress for certain sectors, such as food systems, since AR4. The following sections provide a synthesis of findings with regard to food systems, economic systems, human health, human security and human livelihoods and poverty, which are documented in greater detail in Chapters 7, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13. They also incorporate evidence from regional chapters and further available literature, especially for the discussion of extreme events, human security, and observed changes in indigenous communities. _____ START BOX 18-4 HERE _____ Box 18-4. The Role of Sensitivity to Climate and Adaptation for Impact Models in Human Systems Impacts of climate change on a measurable attribute of a human system only occur if a) the attribute is sensitive to climate and b) a change in climate has occurred. Many studies now attempt to quantify both climate sensitivity of various systems and observed changes in climate. Subject to Final Copyedit 19 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Assessment of the sensitivity of an outcome such as crop yields, heat related mortality or migration,to climate relies on observed climate variability either across space (e.g., Schlenker et al., 2005), time (e.g., Mann and Emanuel, 2012), or space and time (e.g., Dell et al., 2012). While there are many studies using climate variability across space, the lack of long observational weather time series required for exploring climate variability across space and time have limited the opportunities for study. A number of studies have instead estimated the sensitivity of outcomes to short run fluctuations (e.g., weather) in order to project the future impacts of climate change (Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011), or attribute impacts for the past (Auffhammer et al., 2006). The issue with impact studies using a weather based sensitivity measure is that they cannot provide estimates of impacts based on the sensitivity to climate. For example, farmers may respond to an unusually hot summer, which is a weather event, by applying more irrigation water. However, in the long run farmers may respond to a warmer climate by switching crops, changing irrigation technology or abandoning farming altogether. The two sensitivities and resulting magnitudes of attributable impacts due to a change in weather versus a change in climate are therefore different. In order to detect and attribute a change in a system to climate change, one needs to combine a measure of sensitivity of the outcome to climate with climate observations under climate change. _____ END BOX 18-4 HERE _____ 18.4.1. Food Production Systems Detection and attribution of climate change impacts in food systems is challenging, given that the behavior of the system in the absence of climate change is driven by a large number of other factors (7.2.1). For cropping systems, these confounders include, but are not limited to, cultivar improvement and increased use of synthetic fertilizers, herbicides, and irrigation. These confounders are often not well measured in terms of their distribution across space and time. Further, it is difficult to quantify or model the exact relationship between these confounders and outcomes of interest (e.g., crop yield or pasture productivity). In addition, the role of farmers’ behavior in response to climate change requires significant assumptions and has been shown to change over time (7.2.1). The discussion below is limited to crop systems and fisheries, as literature is scarce on observed impacts for other important sources of food. 18.4.1.1. Agricultural Crops A significant number of studies have provided impact estimates of observed changes in climate on cropping systems over the past few decades (e.g., Auffhammer et al., 2006; Kucharik and Serbin, 2008; Ludwig et al., 2009; Lobell et al., 2011; Tao et al., 2012, see also Figure 7-2). Over the past several decades, observed climate trends have adversely affected wheat and maize production for many regions, as well as the total global production of these crops (medium confidence in a minor role of climate change in overall production). Climate change impacts on rice and soybean yields over this time period have been small in major production regions and globally (medium confidence, Figure 7-2). In some mid latitude regions, such as the United Kindom and Northeast China, warming has benefitted crop production during recent decades (high confidence in a minor role of climate change; 7.2.1.1, Jaggard et al., 2007; Chen et al., 2011). At the continental or global scale, observed trends in some climatic variables, including mean summer temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic activity (see 7.2.1.1; WGI AR5 10.3.1; Table 10-1) have had significant negative impacts on trends in yields for certain crops (Lobell and Field, 2007; You et al., 2009; Lobell et al., 2011). Attributable trends have been found not only in the seasonal averages of climate variables, but also for extremes (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.6). Extreme rainfall events are widely recognized as important to cropping systems (Rosenzweig et al., 2002), and global scale changes in the patterns of rainfall extremes have been attributed to anthropogenic activity (Min et al., 2011). High nighttime temperatures are harmful to most crops, particularly for rice yield (Peng et al., 2004; Wassmann et al., 2009; Welch et al., 2010) and quality (Okada et al., 2009). Daytime extreme heat is also damaging and sometimes lethal to crops (Porter and Gawith, 1999; Schlenker and Roberts, 2009). At the global scale, trends in annual maximum daytime temperatures have been attributed to greenhouse gas emissions (Zwiers et al., 2011), and similar observation have been made for the occurrence of very hot nights (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.6.1.1, Seneviratne et al., 2012). Subject to Final Copyedit 20 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Changing atmospheric conditions are affecting crops both positively and negatively. It is virtually certain that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since preindustrial times has improved water use efficiency and yields most notably in C3 crops. These effects are however of relatively minor importance when explaining total yield trends (Amthor, 2001; McGrath and Lobell, 2011). Emissions of CO2 have been associated with tropospheric ozone (O3) precursors (Morgan et al., 2006; Mills et al., 2007, 7.3.2.1.2). O3 suppresses global output of major crops, with reductions estimated at roughly 10% for wheat and soy and 3-5% for maize and rice (Van Dingenen et al., 2009). Detected impacts are most significant for India and China, but can also be found for soybean production in the United States in recent decades (Fishman et al., 2010; Christidis et al., 2011). 18.4.1.2. Fisheries Many new studies focus on the relationship between the dynamics of marine fish stocks and climate, suggesting a sensitivity to climate of these stocks and on the fisheries that exploit them (Hollowed et al., 2001; Roessig et al., 2004; Shriver et al., 2006; Brander, 2007). Some fisheries and aquaculture do not show evidence of climate change impacts (e.g. aquaculture in the UK and Ireland, Callaway et al., 2012), while many others do with both positive and negative changes (see also 18.3.4, 30.6.2.1, 7.2.1.1). There is high confidence in the detection of a climate change impact on the spatial distributions of marine fishes (Perry et al., 2005) and in the timing of events like spawning and migration (Sydeman and Bograd, 2009), with high confidence of a major role of climate change (see 18.3.4, CC-MB, 30.4). This distributional shift is reflected in the species composition of harvest, with the relative share of warm water species increasing (Cheung et al., 2013). The impacts of ocean warming and acidification on fish stocks vary from region to region (30.6.2.1). To date, the role of climate change in change in fish stocks and fishery yields is, in most cases, minor (high confidence) in relation to other factors such as harvesting, habitat modification, technological development, and pollution (Brander, 2010). 18.4.2. Economic Impacts, Key Economic Sectors, and Services 18.4.2.1. Economic Growth In low income countries, careful tracking of incomes and temperatures over an extended period, taking into account important confounders, shows that higher annual temperatures as well as higher temperatures averaged over 15 year periods result in substantially lower economic growth (Dell et al., 2012). This effect is not limited to the level of per capita income, but also to its rate of growth. Declining rainfall over the 20th century partly explains the slower growth of Sub-Saharan economies relative to those of other developing regions (Barrios et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2011). Dell et al. (2009) find that 1° C of warming reduces income by 1.2% in the short run, and by 0.5% in the long run. The difference is argued to be due to adaptation. Horowitz (2009) finds a much larger effect: a 3.8% drop in income in the long run for 1° C of warming. One proposed mechanism for this is the impact of heat stress on workers in the workplace (Dash and Kjellström, 2011; Dunne et al., 2013). Temperature shocks have negatively affected the growth of developing countries’ exports, for which 1° C of warming in a given year reduced the growth rate of its exports by 2.0-5.7% (Jones and Olken, 2010). The export sectors most affected are agricultural and light manufacturing exports. 18.4.2.2. Energy Systems Energy production and consumption is growing rapidly globally, with much of the growth taking place in low income and emerging economies. Various parts of the energy sector are known to be sensitive to climate change (cf. Ebinger and Vegara, 2011). Higher temperatures raise the demand for cooling and lower the demand for heating. Cooling demand is largest in the summer and in some areas peak loads during the summer months have increased, this peak being highly correlated with summer maximum temperatures (Franco and Sanstad, 2008). There are also opposing effects of warmer winters and summers on electricity and gas demand. Statistical studies have confirmed Subject to Final Copyedit 21 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 this U-shaped relationship of energy and electricity demand in temperature for the United States and elsewhere (Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009; Akpinar-Ferrand and Singh, 2010; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011). On the supply side, sensitivity to climatic factors such as ambient temperature, wind speeds, or snow and ice is well-known for many energy technologies and part of the transmission infrastructure (see 10.2.2, 10.2.3), however, there are no studies available that discuss observed effects of climate change on the energy sector. 18.4.2.3. Tourism Tourism is a climate sensitive economic sector and ample research has been performed to understand its sensitivity to climate change and impacts of (future) climate change on tourism, yet few studies have focused on detection and attribution of observed impacts (cf. Scott et al., 2008, see also 10.6). A comparatively well-studied area is the sensitivity of the winter sports industry in lower lying areas to climate. For example, the increase in investment in artificial snow machines in the European Alps can be attributed with high confidence to a general decrease of snow depth, snow cover duration and snow fall days since the end of the 1980s for low-elevation mountain stations (Durand et al., 2009; Valt and Cianfarra, 2010; Voigt et al., 2011), which in turn has been attributed to anomalous higher winter temperatures over the past 20 years (Marty, 2008). Variability in precipitation, shrinking glaciers and milder winters have been shown to negatively affect visitor numbers in winter sports areas in Europe and North America (Becken and Hay, 2007). Another indirect effect of climate change that has been reported is a rise in popularity of destinations that are perceived to be at risk from climate change (e.g., Eijgelaar et al. (2010) for Antarctic glaciers, or Farbotko (2010) for Tuvalu). 18.4.3. Impacts of Extreme Weather Events The impacts of extreme weather events depend on the frequency and intensity of the events, as well as exposure and vulnerability of society and assets. The last several decades have seen changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including extreme temperature, droughts, heavy rainfall, and tropical and extratropical cyclones with low to very high confidence, depending on the type of extreme event (IPCC, 2012, WGI AR5 Chapter 2). However, the impacts of extreme weather events also depend on the vulnerability and exposure of systems. It is possible that climate change can affect vulnerability and exposure, but typically both are primarily influenced by non-climate confounders, most notably economic development. 18.4.3.1. Economic Losses due to Extreme Weather Events Extreme weather events can result in economic impacts related to damage to private and public assets as well as the temporary disruption of economic and social activities, long-term impacts and impacts beyond the areas affected. Some economic and especially social impacts are not readily monetizable and are thus excluded from most economic assessments (Handmer et al., 2012, their chapter 4.5.1, 4.5.3). Economic costs of extreme weather events have increased over the period 1960-2000 (high confidence), with insured losses increasing more rapidly than overall losses (10.7.3, Handmer et al., 2012, their chapter 4.5.3.3, 4.5.4.1). This is also reflected by an increase in the frequency of extreme weather-related disasters over the same period (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). Recent studies from Mexico and Colombia highlight both variability and positive trends in disaster frequency, (unadjusted) losses and other damage metrics (Saldaña-Zorrilla and Sandberg, 2009; Marulanda et al., 2010; Rodriguez-Oreggia et al., 2013). However, the greatest contributor to increased cost is rising exposure associated with population growth and growing value of assets (high confidence; Bouwer et al., 2007; Bouwer, 2011; Barthel and Neumayer, 2012; Handmer et al., 2012, their Chapter 4.2.2, Box 4.2 and 4.5.3.3). To account for changes over time in the value of exposed assets, many studies attempt to normalize monetary losses by an overall measure of changes in asset value. A majority of studies have found no detectable trend in normalized losses (Bouwer, 2011). Studies on insured losses that in general meet higher data quality standards than data on overall losses due to thoroughly monitored payouts, have focused on developed countries including Australia, Subject to Final Copyedit 22 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Germany, Spain, the US, (Changnon, 2007; Changnon, 2008; Changnon, 2009a; Changnon, 2009b; Barredo et al., 2012; Barthel and Neumayer, 2012; Sander et al., 2013, see also 10.7.3). Studies of normalized losses from extreme winds associated with hurricanes in the US (Miller et al., 2008; Pielke Jr et al., 2008; Schmidt et al., 2010; Bouwer and Botzen, 2011) and the Caribbean (Pielke Jr et al., 2003), tornadoes in the US (Brooks and Doswell, 2002; Boruff et al., 2003; Simmons et al., 2013) and wind storms in Europe (Barredo, 2010) have failed to detect trends consistent with anthropogenic climate change, although some studies were able to find signals in loss records related to climate variability, such as damage and loss of life due to wildfires in Australia related to El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole phenomena (Crompton et al., 2010), or typhoon loss variability in the Western North Pacific (Welker and Faust, 2013). Effects of adaptation measures (disaster risk prevention) on disaster loss changes over time cannot be excluded as research is currently not able to control for this factor (Neumayer and Barthel, 2011). In conclusion, although there is limited evidence of a trend in the economic impacts of extreme weather events that is consistent with a change driven by observed climate change, climate change cannot be excluded as at least one of the drivers involved in changes of normalized losses over time in some regions and for some hazards. 18.4.3.2. Detection and Attribution of the Impacts of Single Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change Although most studies on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events have focused on changes over time in their frequency and intensity, a few studies have focused on the contribution of climate change to specific events (WGI AR5 Chapter 10.6.2). Assessing the contribution of climate change to a specific event poses particular challenges, both in terms of methodology and communication of results (Allen, 2011; Curry, 2011; Hulme et al., 2011; Trenberth, 2011). Only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the role of climate change in the impacts of individual extreme weather events. For instance, Pall et al. (2011) and Kay et al. (2011), using observational constraints on climate and hydrologic model simulations, concluded that greenhouse gas emissions have increased the probability of occurrence of a comparable flooding event in autumn 2000 over the UK. In highly temperature-sensitive regions, such as high mountains, several extreme impact events of recent decades can be qualitatively attributed to effects of long-term warming (high confidence), namely glacier lake outburst floods due to glacier recession and subsequent formation of unstable lakes (Evans and Clague, 1994; Carey, 2005; Bajracharya and Mool, 2009), debris flows from recently deglaciated areas, and rock fall and avalanches following the loss of mechanical support accompanying glacier retreat (Haeberli and Beniston, 1998; Oppikofer et al., 2008; Huggel et al., 2012b; Stoffel and Huggel, 2012, see also 18.3.1.3). Multi-step approaches can be used to evaluate the contributions of anthropogenic emissions to recent damaging extreme events (Hegerl et al., 2010). Irrespective of whether a specific event can be attributed in part to climate change, there is ample evidence of the severity of related impacts on people and various assets. Both low- and high-income countries have been strongly impacted by extreme weather events in recent years, but the impacts relative to economic strength have been higher in low-income countries (Handmer et al., 2012). Similarly, at the national scale, poor or elderly people have been disproportionately affected, as documented for Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005 (Elliott and Pais, 2006; Bullard and Wright, 2010) or the 2003 European heat wave (Fouillet et al., 2008). Exacerbating effects of extreme weather events are mostly of non-climatic nature, including increasing exposure and urbanization, land-use changes including deforestation, or vulnerable infrastructure. Table 18-3 lists a selection of recent weather-related disasters, and lists various factors contributing to long-term changes in the risk of damage, including recent climate change. [INSERT TABLE 18-3 HERE Table 18-3: Illustrative selection of recent disasters related to extreme weather events, with description of the impact event, the associated climate hazard, recent climate trends relating to the weather event, and recent trends relating to the consequences of such a weather event.] Subject to Final Copyedit 23 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.4.4. Human Health IPCC AR4 (Confalonieri et al., 2007) concluded that there was weak to moderate evidence of effects of recent observed climate change on three main categories of health exposure (ranging from low to medium confidence): vectors of human infectious diseases (changes in distribution), allergenic pollen (changes in phenology), and extreme heat exposures (trend in increased frequency of very hot days and heat wave events). Overall, there was a lack of evidence for observed effects of climate change on human health outcomes, and this generally remains the case (see Chapter 11). Evaluation of the detection and attribution of impacts on health outcomes requires disentangling the roles of changes in exposures (e.g. patterns), control measures (e.g. vaccination, drug resistance), population structures (e.g. population aging), and reporting practices. The most direct potential health impact of climate change is through exposure to higher temperatures, as the association between very hot days and increases in mortality is very robust (11.4.1). Recent decades have seen a shift toward more frequent hot extremes and less frequent cold extremes (high confidence; Seneviratne et al., 2012, WGI Table 2.13). However, the translation of this trend in hazard to a trend in exposure is complicated by changes in social, environmental, and behavioral factors (e.g., Carson et al., 2006, Table 18-3) and interseasonal mortality relationships (Rocklöv et al., 2009; Ha et al., 2011). Climate change has contributed to a shift from cold-related mortality to heat-related mortality during recent decades in Australia (medium confidence; Bennett et al., 2013). In a similar shift in England and Wales, a contribution from anthropogenic climate change has been detected (medium confidence; Christidis et al., 2010). For pollen production, changes in phenology have been consistently observed in mid to high latitudes with, for example, earlier onset in Finland (e.g., Yli-Panula et al., 2009) and Spain (D’Amato et al., 2007; García-Mozo et al., 2010, see also 4.3) over the past few decades. In North America, the pollen season of ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) has been extended by 13-27 days since 1995 at latitudes above 44 °N (Ziska et al., 2011). Allergic sensitization of humans has changed over a 25 year period in Italy, but the attribution to observed warming remains unclear (Ariano et al., 2010). There is limited evidence regarding the role of observed warming in changes in tick-borne disease in mid to high latitudes. While patterns of changes in tick borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence in the Czech Republic match those expected from observed warming (Kriz et al., 2012), the upsurge of TBE in the 1980-90s in Central and Eastern Europe generally has been attributed to socio-economic factors (human behavior) rather than temperature (Šumilo et al., 2008; Šumilo et al., 2009). Changes in the latitudinal and altitudinal distribution of ticks in Europe and North America are consistent with observed warming trends (e.g., Gray et al., 2009; Ogden et al., 2010), but there is no evidence so far of any associated changes in the distribution of human cases of tick-borne diseases. There is limited evidence of a change in the distribution of rodent-borne infections in the US (plague and tularaemia) consistent with observed warming (Nakazawa et al., 2007). Specifically, a northward shift of the southern edge of the distributions of the diseases (based on human case data for period 1965-2003) was observed. There was no change detected in the northern edge of the distributions though. Globally, the dominant trend concerning malaria has been a contraction of the geographical range and a decrease in endemicity over the past century due to changes in land cover, behaviour, and health care (Gething et al., 2010). Given that the mosquito vector is climate-sensitive, however, there may be specific locations where climate change matches the influence of these other factors. In the Kericho region of Kenya, both increasing incidence and warming have been observed over several decades (Omumbo et al., 2011). Modelling suggests that the gradual warming is inducing an amplified non-linear response in malaria incidence (Alonso et al., 2011). A detailed review concluded that decadal temperature changes have played at least a minor role in these malaria trends in the East African highlands (low confidence;Chaves and Koenraadt, 2010). 18.4.5. Human Security A small number of studies have examined the connection between the collapse of civilizations and large-scale climate disruptions such as severe or prolonged drought. However, both the detection of a climate change effect and Subject to Final Copyedit 24 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 an assessment of the importance of its role can only be made with low confidence due to limitations on both historical understanding and data. Some studies have suggested that levels of warfare in Europe and Asia were relatively high during the Little Ice Age (Parker, 2008; Brook, 2010; Tol and Wagner, 2010; White, 2011; Zhang et al., 2011), but for the same reasons the detection of the effect of climate change and an assessment of its importance can only be made with low confidence. There is no evidence of a climate change effect on inter-state conflict in the post-WW II period. Most recent research in this area has focused on the relationship between interannual climate variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables and civil conflict, with most studies focusing on Africa (Hsiang et al., 2013, see also 12.5). A number of studies have identified statistical relationships (Miguel et al., 2004; Hendrix and Glaser, 2007; Hsiang et al., 2011), but the results have been challenged (Buhaug et al., 2010; Theisen et al., 2011; Buhaug and Theisen, 2012; Slettebak, 2012) on both technical and substantive grounds. The issue is further complicated by the focus on interannual variability – rather than climate change – and civil conflict. While a plausible argument could be made that climate change has increased interannual variability and has, therefore, contributed positively to the rate of civil conflict, this argument has not been tested in the literature. For these reasons, neither the detection of an effect of climate change on civil conflict nor an assessment of the magnitude of such an effect can currently be made with a degree of confidence. Several studies have examined links between climate variability and small-scale communal violence (Adano et al., 2012; Butler and Gates, 2012; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012; Raleigh and Kniveton, 2012; Theisen, 2012). As with larger-scale civil conflict, this work has focused on climate variability rather than on climate change, so neither the detection of the effect of climate change nor an assessment of its magnitude can currently made with a degree of confidence. Finally, efforts have been made to establish a link between high temperatures and violent crime (Anderson, 1987; Field, 1992; Anderson, 2001; Rotton and Cohn, 2001; Butke and Sheridan, 2010; Breetzke and Cohn, 2012; Gamble and Hess, 2012). However, the findings remain controversial with other studies identifying non-climate factors as explaining variations in the rate of violent crime (Kawachi et al., 1999; Fajnzylber et al., 2002; Neumayer, 2003; Cole and Gramajo, 2009). Again, the focus in this work has been on weather rather than climate and, in light of this and the equivocal nature of the results, neither the detection of a climate change effect nor an assessment of its magnitude can currently be made with a degree of confidence. The impact of future climate change on human displacement and migration has been identified as an emerging risk (19.4.2.1). The social, economic, and environmental factors underlying migration are complex and varied (see e.g. Black et al., 2011) and it has not been possible to detect the effect of observed climate change nor assess its magnitude with any degree of confidence (see also 12.4.1.1). Migration in response to climate-related events has been identified in sub-Saharan Africa (Marchiori et al., 2012), with evidence from North America a subject of disagreement (Auffhammer and Vincent, 2012; Feng et al., 2012; Feng and Oppenheimer, 2012). 18.4.6. Livelihoods and Poverty The vulnerability of the world’s poor to climate change, and more general the sensitivity of many livelihood aspects to climate variability has been shown in this and earlier IPCC reports (see Chapter 13). However available research about climate related effects on livelihood and poverty has focused on impacts of climate extremes or year to year climate variability rather than long term climatic trends, resulting in a paucity of evidence on observed impacts of climate change on livelihoods and poverty. Moreover, detection of changes in livelihood aspects is often difficult due to a lack of observations (13.2.1), while multiple confounding factors and lack of both adequate climate data and system understanding preclude attribution (Nielsen and Reenberg, 2010). Table 18-4 summarizes examples of impacts on livelihoods related to climatic trends, climate variability and extreme weather events. Impacted natural assets include land, water, fish stocks and livestock (Osbahr et al., 2008; Bunce et al., 2010). There is growing concern about negative effects of climate change and ocean acidification on Subject to Final Copyedit 25 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 marine and coastal fisheries, and the livelihoods of fisherfolks (Cooley and Doney, 2009; Badjeck et al., 2010), however there are no studies evaluating observed impacts. [INSERT TABLE 18-4 HERE Table 18-4: Cases of regional livelihood impacts associated with weather- and climate related extreme events, inter- annual climate variability or climate change (see also Table 18-3; 13.2.1.1).] Climate related impacts disproportionately affect poor populations, thus increasing social and economic inequalities, both in urban and rural areas, and in low-, middle- and high-income countries (13.1.4; 13.2.1). Evidence for poor people in high-income nations being disproportionately affected by extreme weather events comes, for instance, from 2005 US Hurricane Katrina (Elliott and Pais, 2006; Bullard and Wright, 2010, see also 13.2.5.1) or severe drought in Australia (Alston, 2011). Glacial lake outburst floods in the Peruvian Andes also affected different populations depending on their degree of exposure, level of vulnerability, race, ethnicity, and socio-economic class (Carey, 2010; Carey et al., 2012b). Due to gender specific roles within the household, communities, and wider socio-political and institutional networks, a gender bias has been found in observations of impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability (Carr, 2008; Arora-Jonsson, 2011; Nightingale, 2011, see also Box 13-1). Poor people living in hazard exposed areas in Africa and Latin America were increasingly affected by floods and landslides in the 1990s and 2000s (high confidence), however most of this trend was due to increased urbanization in such areas (Douglas et al., 2008; Hardoy and Pandiella, 2009). There is evidence of a decline in average precipitation in West Africa since 1960 (Lacombe et al., 2012) including repeated droughts (Dietz et al., 2004; Armah et al., 2011), which in some cases has been partly attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing (Held et al., 2005; Jenkins et al., 2005; Biasutti and Giannini, 2006). However, there is only limited evidence of changes in poverty among affected small-holder and subsistence farmers that can be attributed to climate drivers such as rainfall decline and droughts (13.2.1). Livelihoods of indigenous people in the Arctic have been identified as among the most severely affected by climate change, including food security aspects, traditional travel and hunting, and cultural values and references (Hovelsrud et al., 2008; Ford et al., 2009; Ford, 2009a; Ford, 2009b; Beaumier and Ford, 2010; Pearce et al., 2010; Olsen et al., 2011; Eira, 2012; Crate, 2013, see also Box 18-5, Table 18-9). Impacts of rising temperatures, increased variability, and weather extremes on crops and livestock of indigenous people in highlands were reported from Tibet (Byg and Salick, 2009) and the Andes of Bolivia (McDowell and Hess, 2012). _____ START BOX 18-5 HERE _____ Box 18-5. Detection, Attribution, and Traditional Ecological Knowledge Indigenous and local peoples often possess detailed knowledge of climate change that is derived from observations of environmental conditions over many generations. Consequently, there is increasing interest in merging this traditional ecological knowledge (TEK)—also referred to as indigenous knowledge - with the natural and social sciences in order to better understand and detect climate change impacts (Huntington et al., 2004; Parry et al., 2007; Salick and Ross, 2009; Green and Raygorodetsky, 2010; Ford et al., 2011; Diemberger et al., 2012). TEK, however, does not simply augment the sciences, but rather stands on its own as a valued knowledge system that can, together with or independently of the natural sciences, produce useful knowledge for climate change detection or adaptation (Agrawal, 1995; Cruikshank, 2001; Hulme, 2008; Berkes, 2009; Byg and Salick, 2009; Maclean and Cullen, 2009; Wohling, 2009; Ziervogel and Opere, 2010; Ford et al., 2011; Herman-Mercer et al., 2011). Cases in which TEK and scientific studies both detect the same phenomenon offer a higher level of confidence about climate change impacts and environmental change (Huntington et al., 2004; Laidler, 2006; Krupnik and Ray, 2007; Salick and Ross, 2009; Gamble et al., 2010; Green and Raygorodetsky, 2010; Alexander et al., 2011; Cullen- Unsworth et al., 2012). Evidence is available in particular from Nordic and Mountain peoples, e.g from Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountains (Bury et al., 2010; Carey, 2010; Baraer et al., 2012; Carey et al., 2012b), Tibet (Byg and Salick, 2009), and Canada (Nichols et al., 2004; Laidler, 2006; Krupnik and Ray, 2007; Ford et al., 2009; Aporta et al., 2011). TEK can also inspire scientists to study new issues in the detection of climate change impacts. Subject to Final Copyedit 26 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 In one case, experienced Inuit weather forecasters in Baker Lake, Nunavut, Canada, reported that it had become increasingly difficult for them to predict weather, suggesting an increase of weather variability and anomalies in recent years. To test Inuit observations, scientists analyzing hourly temperature data over a 50 year period confirmed that afternoon temperatures fluctuated much more during springtime during the last 20 years—precisely when Inuit forecasters noted unpredictability—than they had during the previous 30 years (Weatherhead et al., 2010). Despite frequent confluence between TEK and scientific observations, there are sometimes discrepancies between them, indicating uncertainty in the identification of climate change impacts. They can arise because TEK and scientific studies frequently focus on different and distinct scales that make comparison difficult. Local knowledge may fail to detect regional environmental changes while scientific regional or global scale analyses may miss local variation (Wohling, 2009; Gamble et al., 2010). Furthermore, TEK based observations and related interpretations necessarily need to be viewed within the context of the respective cultural, social, and political backgrounds (Agrawal, 1995). Therefore, a direct translation of TEK into a natural science perspective is often not feasible. _____ END BOX 18-5 HERE _____ 18.5. Detection and Attribution of Observed Climate Impacts across Regions Since the AR4, significant new knowledge about detected impacts of recent climate change has been gained from all continents and oceans of the world, assessed in the Chapters 22-30 of this report. The tables in this section (18-5, 18- 6, 18-7, 18-8, 18-9) summarize impacts in major natural and human systems, at the local to continental scale, for which assessment of the role of climate as one driver has been possible. The following paragraphs provide a summary of recent climate changes in these regions along with notes about particular challenges in the regional assessments. For much of Africa, knowledge about recent climate change is limited, due to weak climate monitoring, and gaps in coverage that continue to exist. On the other hand, the low natural temperature variability over the continent allows earlier detection of warming signals. Thus there is medium to high confidence in regional warming, with low to high confidence in attribution to anthropogenic emissions. A main regional feature has been the drying of the Sahel during the decades following 1970, but that trend has halted during the most recent decade (Hoerling et al., 2006; Giannini et al., 2008; Greene et al., 2009; Seneviratne et al., 2012). African natural and human systems present challenges for the potential detection and attribution of responses to climate change. Given the weak spatial and temporal variations in temperature, there is smaller scope for migrational and phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change than in other parts of the world. High quality monitoring is relatively sparse in time and space, and is often unsuitable for detecting changes across margins and borders where responses to climate change are most expected. The dearth of studies examining attribution questions means it is currently difficult to estimate the degree to which studies are selectively published based on results, and thus to determine whether each attribution study is only indicative of local reasons for concern or if it is more generally representative of a broader domain. Amongst all continents, Europe has the longest tradition in climate monitoring. Warming has been occurring across the continent in all seasons, with an associated decreasing frequency of cold extremes and increasing frequency of hot extremes (Seneviratne et al., 2012). The Mediterranean basin has been getting drier, while northern areas have been getting wetter (23.2.2.1), with a general increase in the frequency of extreme wet events everywhere (Seneviratne et al., 2012). Asia spans a particularly wide range of climate types. Warming has been observed throughout the continent with northern areas amongst the fastest warming on the planet. Precipitation trends vary geographically, with a but weaker Indian monsoon (WGI AR5 Chapter 14.2.2.1), and contrasting increasing and drying trends over coastal and inland China (24.3.1). Warming has occurred in Australasia during the past century, with hot extremes becoming more frequent and cold extremes becoming less frequent (25.2, Table 25-1). Winters in southern areas of Australia have become drier in the Subject to Final Copyedit 27 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 past few decades and the northwest has become wetter, and precipitation increased over the south and west of both islands of New Zealand. While there have been no significant trends in drought frequency over Australia, regional warming may have increased their hydrological intensity; and fire weather increased since 1973 in Australia (Table 25-1, Clarke et al., 2012). North America spans a wide range of climate types and observed climate changes. While the northwest has been amongst the fastest warming regions on the planet, the southeast of the USA has experienced slight cooling (26.2.2.1). Hot extremes have been becoming more frequent while cold extremes and frost days have been becoming less frequent over the past several decades. Trends in precipitation over western parts of the continent are strongly influenced by the variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with a matching drying and decreasing snowpack. The intensity of precipitation events has been increasing over most of the continent, but trends in dryness are spatially heterogeneous (26.2.2.1). Intense tropical storms have increased in the North Atlantic over the past several decades (WGI AR5 Chapter 2.6.3). Most of Central and South America has warmed over the past half century, except for a slight cooling over a western coastal strip (27.2.1). Precipitation over much of Central and South America is strongly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with accompanying long-term variability. There has been a reduction in the number of dry summer months in the southern half of the continent, while trends over the Amazon are sensitive to the selection of time period (27.2.1). More frequent and severe droughts in the Amazon have been linked to warming (Marengo et al., 2011a). The areas of largest observed warming are all Polar: the northwest of North America, northern Asia, and the Antarctic Peninsula. The nature of Polar regions means that warming can lead to large changes in other aspects of the climate system, in particular the observed decrease in summer sea ice cover, earlier thaw, earlier spring runoff, and thawing of permafrost (28.2). Despite the widely accepted high vulnerability of many small islands to climate change, there are only few formal studies on observed impacts. Detection of climate change impacts in small islands is challenging due to the strong presence of other anthropogenic drivers of local environmental change. Attribution is further challenged by the strong influence of natural variability compared to incremental changes of climate drivers, and the lack of long term monitoring, high quality data. [INSERT TABLE 18-5 HERE Table 18-5: Observed impacts of climate change on mountains, snow, and ice, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature.] [INSERT TABLE 18-6 HERE Table 18-6: Observed impacts of climate change on rivers, lakes and soil moisture, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature.] [INSERT TABLE 18-7 HERE Table 18-7: Observed impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, Subject to Final Copyedit 28 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature.] [INSERT TABLE 18-8 HERE Table 18-8: Observed impacts of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature.] [INSERT TABLE 18-9 HERE Table 18-9: Observed impacts of climate change on human and managed systems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature.] 18.6. Synthesis: Emerging Patterns of Observed Impacts of Climate Change 18.6.1. Approach The AR4 precursor of the current chapter (Rosenzweig et al., 2007) provided a geographically distributed empirical analysis of correlations across numerous detailed and localized studies of changing systems (more elaborated later in Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Rather than expand that approach, this synthesis organizes the findings on detection and attribution of observed impacts of climate change aiming at covering the full disciplinary, sectoral and geographic diversity of impacts, drawn directly from sectoral and regional assessments in this report. A key motivation for the effort in assessing these observed changes is the possibility that observed impacts could constitute indications of future expected changes. Observed losses in glacial volume, for example, lend important additional plausibility to model-based expectations that sustained warming could result in additional ice loss. Such extrapolation faces important limitations, however. First, due to the complex nonlinear behavior of most natural and human systems, it cannot always be assumed that past impacts scale linearly to future impacts. Likewise, absence of past impacts cannot constitute evidence against the possibility of future impacts. Nonetheless, detection and attribution of observed impacts may serve as part of the foundation for a climatic risk analysis. In order to do so, the total body of observed impacts needs to undergo a synthetic assessment pointing towards any conceivable risks. Virtually all observed impacts of climate change are of regional nature (18.5); however the occurrence of similar impacts in many regions of the world emerges more strongly with every IPCC assessment. The global pattern emerging from the sum of observed regional impacts is therefore analysed in section 18.6.2. The current body of observations provides improved evidence of major impacts in natural and human systems which have ‘cascading’ consequences for other systems – key examples for these are synthesized in section 18.6.3. Finally, section 18.6.4 aims to establish current conditions concerning the risk analysis model formulated earlier by the IPCC through the establishment of a limited number of “Reasons for Concern” (RFC) – the risk analysis itself is part of Chapter 19 of this report. 18.6.2. The Global Pattern of Regional Impacts The global pattern of observed climate change differs strongly for the different climate variables. Broadly, more warming has occurred at higher latitudes than in the Tropics, while the pattern of rainfall changes is highly complex (WGI AR5 Chapter 2). Taken together, this provides a heterogenous pattern of climate change across the globe. In Subject to Final Copyedit 29 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 addition, some natural and human systems (and the regions in which they occur) are more vulnerable to changing climate than others. Crucially, observational records are of highly heterogenous nature: not only do low-income countries report fewer impacts than high-income countries, but there is also a significant shortage of observations from remote areas such as the deep Sea or sparsely populated mountains and deserts. Taken together, it is therefore natural to expect an uneven distribution of detected impacts (Figure 18-3). The outstanding finding about the global pattern of observed impacts is that, on all continents and across major ocean regions, significant impacts have now been observed. Many of these concern systems affected directly by warming (the cryosphere, marine systems), but a growing number of observed impacts have been shown to be the result of a combination of changing temperature and precipitation (agricultural and hydrological systems). The global distribution of observed impacts shown in Figure 18-3 demonstrates that analyses can now detect impacts in systems strongly influenced by confounding factors and hence where climate change plays only a minor role. The most outstanding examples for this are agricultural systems where impacts now emerge in a number of places. An identified minor role of climate for some impact does not imply that this role is less important. New studies now identify more clearly such roles even when they are masked by stronger confounding factors such as environmental degradation or improved technology. Examples for such studies include, assessments of mangrove degradation, caused by both warming and pollution (Giri et al., 2011), or changes in Inuit livelihoods, influenced by both warming and social changes (Ford et al., 2009). Enhanced research efforts would probably add additional observations of impacts with a minor, but important, role of climate to the global map. [INSERT FIGURE 18-3 HERE Figure 18-3: Global patterns of observed climate change impacts. Each colored symbol in the top panels indicates a class of systems for which climate change has played a major role in observed changes in at least one measure of that class across the respective region, and the range of confidence in attribution. Regional-scale impacts where climate change has played a minor role are shown by colored open symbols in a box in the respective region. Localized impacts are indicated with symbols on the map, placed in the approximate area of their occurrence. Impacts on physical (blue), biological (green) and human (red) systems are differentiated by color. This map represents a graphical synthesis of Tables 18-5, 18-6, 18-7, 18-8 and 18-9.] 18.6.3. Cascading Impacts Many impacts of climate change are direct cause-effect relationships, such as reduction of glacier volume following higher temperatures. Others may be mediated through impacts on intermediary systems (e.g., Johnson et al., 2011). Enhanced evidence of observed impacts of climate change, and improved research methodologies now allow attribution of effects at various stages along the causal impact chain (Figure 18-4). Within the cryosphere, changes in atmospheric and ocean properties of the climate have driven changes in the cryosphere on the land surface, the land subsurface, and the ocean surface. These changes have in turn led to changes in multiple aspects of hydrology and ecosystems, and in some regions (e.g., the Arctic) changes in these systems have impacted human livelihoods (Xu et al., 2009). Within most ocean regions, warming has lead to a number of observed impacts on biota, some of which are mediated through the effect of warming on the ocean’s thermal stratification or on sea ice. Impacts tend to propagate up the food chain, eventually affecting large mammals, birds, reptiles and humans. In forests and woodlands, climate change impacts on trees have been transmitted through pests, fire, and drought, while impacts on forests have also been observed to affect the forest fauna. In all these cases, confidence in detection and attribution to observed climate change decreases for effects further down each impact chain. [INSERT FIGURE 18-4 HERE Figure 18-4: Major systems where new evidence indicates interconnected, ‘cascading’ impacts from recent climate change through several natural and human subsystems. Bracketed text indicates confidence in the detection of a climate change effect and the attribution of observed impacts to climate change. The role of climate change can be major (solid arrow) or minor (dashed arrow). Confidence is assessed in 18.3, 18.4, 18.5, and 18.6.] Subject to Final Copyedit 30 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 18.6.4. Reasons for Concern In order to synthesize its findings in support of a risk analysis the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (TAR) developed the “Reasons for Concern” (RFC) concept (Smith et al., 2001), which was adopted for a second time in IPCC-AR4 (IPCC, 2007), and elaborated in Smith et al. (2009). It is further developed in Chapter 1 of this report and employed extensively in Chapter 19 for the risk framing approach of WGII AR5. In this chapter, the goal is to establish, qualitatively, the evidence of impacts already observed that are relevant to these categories (names of categories have been adapted for consistency across Chapters 1, 18 and 19, see sections below). The broad definitions of the RFC continue to imply significant overlap; hence some observed impacts are referred to under more than one RFC. The RFC Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems is concerned with the potential for increased damage to, or irreversible loss of, systems such as physical systems, ecosystems, and human livelihoods, all of which are known to be highly sensitive to temporal and/or spatial variations in climate. Figure 18-5 displays confidence levels in the current evidence derived from detection and attribution studies of such observed impacts. Changes in the three indicated main natural systems (physical systems, marine and terrestrial ecosystems) have at least high confidence in attribution of a major role of climate change, with regional assessments also tending to have similar confidence. There is at least medium confidence in attribution of a major role for at least one each of ecosystems, physical systems, and human systems. The unique and threatened systems with strongest detection and attribution evidence cover the Arctic, warm-water coral reefs, and mountains. In the Arctic, climate change has played a major role in observed impacts on glaciers, permafrost, the tundra, marine ecosystems, and livelihoods of indigenous peoples (at least medium confidence), reflecting large-scale changes across both natural and human systems and across the physical and ecological subregions. Evidence for the detection and attribution of shrinkage and recession of glaciers comes from all continents, while evidence for attribution of coral bleaching spans a similarly broad area of the tropical oceans (see Figure 18-5). [INSERT FIGURE 18-5 HERE Figure 18-5: Confidence in detection and attribution of observed impacts on "Unique and Threatened Systems" as a result of recent climate change. Global assessments (large upper case) and regional assessments (small lower case) are discussed in 18.3.1.1, 18.3.2.4, Box 18-2, and Tables 18-2 and 18-5 through 18-9. Attribution assessments are for a minor (open font) or major (bold) role of climate change, as indicated.] The RFC Risks Associated with Extreme Weather Events “tracks increases in extreme events with substantial consequences for societies and natural systems” (Smith et al., 2009). Besides episodic (e.g., coral bleaching) and chronic (e.g., erosion) impacts of extreme weather events, this RFC also considers increased frequency of extreme impact events (e.g., floods), even if their climate drivers are not wholly episodic in nature. A change in the risk of impacts of extreme weather events could be caused by a change in the probability, intensity, or sequencing of the weather event itself (which are manifestations of recent climate change), or by a change in exposure, vulnerability, or the resilience of the impacted system. Trends have been noted for extreme weather hazards. Temperature extremes have changed in most regions over the past half century, with more frequent hot events and less frequent cold events (high confidence; Hansen et al., 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2012, WGI AR5 Chapter 2.6.1; Coumou et al., 2013). Some regions have also experienced increasingly frequent periods of heavy precipitation events (medium confidence; Min et al., 2011), while other regions have experienced positive or negative trends in measures of dry spells (Seneviratne et al., 2012). Current evidence does not, however, indicate sustained global trends in tropical cyclone or extratropical cyclone activity (Seneviratne et al., 2012, WGI AR5 2.6.3). Table 18-10 summarizes new evidence concerning this RFC. Generally, the strongest evidence of detected impacts related to extremes concerns warm water corals where bleaching has been linked directly to high temperature spells (Box 18-2, Baker et al., 2008; Strong et al., 2011). Outside of these coral reef systems, however, evidence for extreme event impacts is limited and mostly local. Overall, a number of trends in observed impacts on natural Subject to Final Copyedit 31 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 systems have been documented which indicate changing risks driven by changes in extreme weather (medium confidence), but any similar trends in human systems have not been detected against large shifts in exposure, vulnerability and resilience. [INSERT TABLE 18-10 HERE Table 18-10: Confidence in detection and attribution of observed trends in natural disasters related to extreme weather. The assessment is for the impacts on various systems, in attribution of those trends to climate change, and in the existence of observed trends in that extreme weather. The assessment of confidence in detection is against the specified reference behaviour, while the assessment for attribution is for the indicated minor or major role of observed climate trends. The confidence statements refer to a globally balanced assessment.] The RFC Risks Associated with the Distribution of Impacts focuses on the disparities of impacts between regions, countries, and populations. The survey of recent studies presented in 18.5 indicates that, while evidence for detected impacts is still more exhaustive from Europe and North America, considerable confidence in conclusions has been developed elsewhere since the AR4, particularly in Central and South America and Australasia (Figure 18-3). It is no longer the case that higher confidence levels of detected impacts are restricted to any particular region (Figure 18-6). The qualitative conclusion that observed impacts on human and managed systems have now been detected with at least medium confidence on all inhabited continents is new and noteworthy. However, the number of systems with detectable impacts is only an indicative metric of coverage, because many options exist for aggregation and disaggregation of evidence. Thus this synthesis of detection and attribution studies does not, at this time, provide evidence of differing severity of impacts between continents. Throughout its assessments, the IPCC has repeatedly noted the significant disparity between the vulnerability of countries, regions, and social groups, related to differences in adaptive capacity (e.g., Wilbanks et al., 2007). Nevertheless, additional coverage of detection and attribution studies is required for broad evaluation of social disparities in impacts. [INSERT FIGURE 18-6 HERE Figure 18-6: Confidence in detection of observed climate change impacts in physical natural systems, biological systems, and human and managed systems across regions, and confidence in attribution of such trends to observed climate change as a major or minor driver. Based on assessments developed in Tables 18-5 - 18-9.] The original intent of the category now labeled as Risks Associated with Aggregate Impacts was to assess those economic impacts, damages, and risks that are specifically driven by climate change at a globally aggregated level, using unified monetary metrics. Recognizing the limits of calibrated monetarization of impacts, the scope of this RFC has been expanded over time to also include non-monetary metrics (Smith et al., 2009). Table 18-11 lists various aggregate systems of near-global extent for which the following two conditions apply: there is some form of calibrated metric for comparison of impacts across space and subsystems, and the evidence for detection and attribution of the impacts has sufficient geographical coverage to count as spatially representative sample. Confidence in such large-scale detection is, again, highest in cryospheric systems (expressed in glacier volume or permafrost active layer thickness), but climate change has also affected ecosystems (expressed as net productivity or carbon stocks, ranging from medium to high confidence) and some human systems (crop yields, losses due to extreme events, ranging from low to medium confidence) according to the listed aggregate measures. Thus, several globally aggregated impacts of recent climate change have now been identified. [INSERT TABLE 18-11 HERE Table 18-11: Confidence in detection of impacts on aggregate impact measures against the specified reference behaviour and confidence in attribution of the specified role of climate change in those observed changes.] The RFC Risks Associated with Large-Scale Singular Events “represents the likelihood that certain phenomena (sometimes called singularities or tipping points) would occur, any of which may be accompanied by very large impacts” (Smith et al., 2009). Several studies have identified “tipping elements” in the Earth System that exhibit non-linear behavior with potentially strong feedbacks on the Earth system (Lenton et al., 2008; Leadley et al., Subject to Final Copyedit 32 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 2010). For observed impacts, the concern translates into a question of the possible presence of “early warning signals” for discontinuities that may be derived from monitoring changes in some climate or natural systems (Collie et al., 2004; deYoung et al., 2008; Andersen et al., 2009; Lenton, 2011). For the Arctic region, new evidence indicates a biophysical regime shift is taking place, with cascading impacts on physical systems, ecosystems and human livelihoods. For Arctic marine biota, the rapid reduction of summer ice cover causes a tipping element which is now severely affecting pelagic ecosystems as well as ice-dependent mammals such as seals and polar bears (high confidence; Duarte et al., 2012a;Table 18-2, 18-8; 28.2.2.1). On land, thawing of Arctic permafrost and shrub encroachment on the tundra have been driven by warming and prolongation of the growing season (high confidence; 18.3.2.4, Table 18-5, 18-7; Figure 4-4, 4.3.3.4; 24.4.2.2). Permafrost degradation has contributed to wide-spread hydrological changes including lake formation or disappearance within a few years’ time (high confidence; Prowse and Brown, 2010; Callaghan et al., 2013; Table 18-6), while increasing winter rains have had consequences for the tundra food webs (medium confidence; Post et al., 2009; Callaghan et al., 2013; Hansen et al., 2013). Indigenous people throughout the Arctic are impacted by these changes (18.4.6, Eira, 2012; Crate, 2013). In summary, several indicators of the ongoing regime shift in the entire Arctic land-sea socio- ecological system can be interpreted as warning sign for a large-scale singular event (Post et al., 2009; CAFF, 2010; Callaghan et al., 2010; AMAP, 2011; Duarte et al., 2012b; Figure 18-3, Tables 18-5, 18-7, 18-8, 18-9; 28.2). Reef building corals are in rapid decline in many regions, and climate change is one of the major drivers (high confidence, Box 18-2). This irreversible loss of biodiversity has significant feedbacks within the marine biosphere, and significant consequences for regional marine ecosystems as well as the human livelihoods which depend on them (Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Richardson et al., 2012). The growing evidence for presently ongoing change and its attribution to warming gained since the AR4 strengthens the conclusion that increased mass bleaching of corals constitutes a strong warning signal for the singular event that would constitute the irreversible loss of an entire biome. Dieback and degradation in the boreal forests as well as the Amazonian rainforest have also been identified as potential tipping elements in the Earth system, due to their large extent and the possible feedbacks with the carbon cycle (Lenton et al., 2008; Leadley et al., 2010; Marengo et al., 2011b, see also 4.3.3.1). For the boreal forest, increases in tree mortality have been observed in many regions, including wide-spread dieback related to insect infestations and fire in North America (4.3.3.1; 26.4.2.1). Taken together, these may be seen as indicators of an ongoing regime shift in the boreal forest, but there is only low confidence in attribution to climate change (18.3.2.4; Figure 4-4). In the humid tropical forests of the Amazon basin, increased tree turnover (both mortality and growth) and enhanced drought risks have been observed during recent decades. However, the main reason for concern is the interaction between climate change, deforestation, and the high susceptibility of forests to fire, which together could produce positive feedbacks leading to degradation of forests in large areas of the Amazon (Malhi et al., 2009). Currently, there is only low confidence in attribution of observed ecosystem changes in the Amazon to climate change. In conclusion, there is insufficient evidence from observed climate change impacts to support a climate- related warning sign of possible large-scale singular events in the boreal and Amazonian forest. 18.6.5. Conclusion Detection and attribution studies evaluate the agreement between observations of change in a system and process understanding of its causes, whether these are due to climate change or other forces. This sets a higher bar for establishing confidence in the assessment of past changes than is generally applied to the projections of future changes, because observational evidence has important gaps, while the plausibility of future changes is established on the basis of process knowledge only. Despite this constraint, the body of evidence on observed impacts of recent climate change demonstrates increasing coverage of the Earth and its various subsystems, including human livelihoods. Increasingly, there is also evidence for complex changes in interconnected systems. This analysis lends new qualitative support to four out of the RFC established by earlier IPCC assessments. Specifically, evidence is notable for risks to unique and threatened systems, risks stemming from extreme weather events, risks associated with globally aggregated impacts and – in terms of early warnings – risks associated with Subject to Final Copyedit 33 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 large-scale discontinuities. Only the spatial or social disparities covered under “risks associated with the distribution of impacts” are still insufficiently studied to permit a synthesis of available observations for the characterization of a global concern. While the Arctic stands out as a region with robust evidence of impacts across numerous systems, current detection and attribution literature does not address whether the severity of those impacts differs from other regions. The Arctic region, warm-water coral reef systems and mountain glaciers feature strongly in the observational evidence discussed for all the RFC, but there are also important observations from impacted hydrological systems and human systems including agriculture. The evidence gathered since the AR4 on detection and attribution of observed impacts from climate change has reached a level at which it can inform evaluation of many of the aspects of present-day climate change risk as described by the RFC. In particular, the geographical distribution of studies is reaching the point where assessment of the global nature of impacts is possible: • There is now robust evidence of observed changes in natural systems in all of the regional groupings used in this report. Climate change has played a major role in observed changes in various components of the cryosphere on all continents (high confidence). Climate change has also driven observed changes in terrestrial ecosystems on six continents (high confidence, the exception being low confidence in Central and South America) and on some small islands (medium confidence), and for marine ecosystems surrounding six continents and some small islands (high confidence, with evidence lacking for Africa). • There is new and stronger evidence of the detection of impacts in human systems on the inhabited continents. There is at least medium confidence in detection of impacts on food production in all the inhabited continents except North America. • While the current detection and attribution literature does not reveal observational evidence of geographical differences in the severity of climate change impacts between continents, it does indicate that the unique systems of the Arctic region and warm water coral reefs are undergoing rapid changes in response to observed warming in ways that are potentially irreversible. 18.7. Gaps, Research Needs, Emerging Issues There are three broad areas relating to the detection and attribution of the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems that require more research. The first concerns the formulation of the relevant issues and further development of rigorous scientific methods for addressing them. At present, the terms detection and attribution are used in numerous different ways and, while there is no need for a single definition, more clarity about usage is important. Methods in this area are closely linked to specific formulations of these terms and there is a parallel need to develop, refine, and evaluate them in light of this. For example, statistical methods are commonly used to detect the impact of variations in climate on human and natural systems while controlling for the effect of other factors. Such detection can be valuable in helping to predict the response of systems to projections of future climate change but a positive correlation does not necessarily imply that the system has already changed in response to historical climate change. A second example is the growing use of methods that combine information from multiple systems - for example, different locations or species - to draw a conclusion about systems in general. More conceptual work is needed to develop the basis for such ecological meta-analysis and the interpretation of its results. A second area in which more work is needed is data collection and monitoring. Globally, environmental data are still insufficient for monitoring the impacts of climate change. In addition, developed countries are typically over- represented in impact studies because of their comparable wealth in socioeconomic data. Because the level of economic development is extremely important in determining the impacts of climate change, this over- representation probably gives rise to a distorted picture of the global impacts of climate change. Finally, this chapter has stressed the need to base detection and attribution studies on a scientific understanding of the system in question and the way in which climate change (and other factors) might affect it rather than on relatively simple correlational analysis. This is particularly important for human systems and at least some natural systems in which the combined effect of climate change and other factors is complex and historical adaptation to climate change must be expected. Further development, refinement, and evaluation of both conceptual and process- Subject to Final Copyedit 34 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 based models of the human-environment system will be essential for improved conclusions about detection and attribution. Frequently Asked Questions FAQ 18.1: Why are detection and attribution of climate impacts important? [to remain at the end of the chapter] To respond to climate change, it is necessary to predict what its impacts on natural and human systems will be. As some of these predicted impacts are expected to already have occurred, detection and attribution provides a way of validating and refining predictions about the future. For example, one of the clearest predicted ecological impacts of climate is a poleward shift in the ranges of plant and animal species. The detection in historical data of a climate- related shift in species ranges would lend credence to this prediction and the assessment of its magnitude would provide information about the likely magnitude of future shifts. FAQ 18.2: Why is it important to assess impacts of all climate change aspects, and not only impacts of anthropogenic climate change? [to remain at the end of the chapter] Natural and human systems are affected by both natural and anthropogenic climate change, operating locally, regionally and/or globally. In order to understand the sensitivity of natural and human systems to expected future climate change, and to anticipate the outcome of adaptation policies, it is less important whether the observed changes have been caused by anthropogenic climate change or by natural climate fluctuations. In the context of this chapter, all known impacts of climate change are assessed. FAQ 18.3: What are the main challenges in detecting climate change impacts? [to remain at the end of the chapter] The detection of climate change impacts addresses the question of whether a system has changed beyond its expected behavior in the absence of climate change. This requires an understanding of both the external and internal factors that affect the system. External factors that can affect natural systems include exploitation, land-use changes, and pollution. Even in the absence of changes in external factors, many natural systems exhibit substantial internal variability – such as booms and busts in wild populations – that can last for long periods. For example, to detect the impact of climate change on wild fish stocks, it is necessary to understand the effects of fishing, habitat alteration, and possibly pollution, as well as the internal stock dynamics. In the same way, human systems are affected by social and economic factors that are unrelated to climate change. For example, to detect the impact of climate change on human health, it is necessary to understand the effects of changes in public health measures such as improved sanitation. FAQ 18.4: What are the main challenges in attributing changes in a system to climate change? [to remain at the end of the chapter] Whereas the detection of climate change impacts addresses the question only of whether or not a system has changed as a result of climate change, attribution addresses the magnitude of the contribution of climate change to such changes. Even when it is possible to detect the impact of climate change on a system, more detailed understanding can be needed to assess the magnitude of this impact in relation to the influences of other external factors and natural variability. FAQ 18.5: Is it possible to attribute a single event, like a disease outbreak or the extinction of a species, to climate change? [to remain at the end of the chapter] It is possible to detect trends in the frequency or characteristics of a class of a class of weather events like heat- waves. Similarly, trends in a certain kind of impact of that class of events can also be detected and attributed, although the influence of other drivers of change, such as policy decisions and increasing wealth, can make this challenging. However, any single impact event also results from the antecedent conditions of the impacted system. Thus while damage from a single extreme weather event may occur against the background of trends in many influencing factors, including climate change, there is always a contribution from random chance. Subject to Final Copyedit 35 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 References ACIA, 2005: Arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1042. Adamík, P. and M. 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Attribution supported by experimental marine biota evidence and physiological knowledge Expansion of midwater medium low minor oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) caused by enhanced [2] hypoxic zones stratification and bacterial respiration due to effects of warming Regional and local impacts medium low minor reduction of biodiversity, compression of oxygenated habitat [3] of expanding hypoxic zones for intolerant species, range expansion for tolerant taxa Direct temperature effects on very high high major e.g., large scale latitudinal shifts of species distribution, [4] marine biota related to changes in community composition; attribution supported by limited physiological experimental and statistical evidence as well as physiological tolerance ranges knowledge Increase in net primary medium medium major At higher latitudes, NPP is increasing due to sea ice decline [5] production at high latitudes and warming. At global scale, estimates vary regionally, and there is a discrepancy between satellite observations and open ocean time-series sites Changes in microbial low very low minor limited understanding of microbial processes, drivers and [6] processes interactions, and subsequently of large scale shifts in biogeochemical pathways such as oxygen production, carbon sequestration and export production and nitrogen fixation Key references and further related information for the assessment above:[1] (Wootton et al., 2008; De Moel et al., 2009; Moy et al., 2009; Bednaršek et al., 2012); 6.3.2, Box CC-OA,; [2] (Stramma et al., 2008; Stolper et al., 2010); 6.1.1.3, 6.3.3; [3] (Levin et al., 2009; Ekau et al., 2010; Stramma et al., 2010; Stramma et al., 2012), 6.3.3, 6.3.5, 30.5; [4] (Merico et al., 2004; Perry et al., 2005; Pörtner and Farrell, 2008; Beaugrand et al., 2010; Alheit et al., 2012); 6.3.1; [5] (Behrenfeld et al., 2006; Saba et al., 2010; Arrigo and Van Dijken, 2011), 6.3.4; Box CC- PP [6] 6.3.1.2, 6.3.2.2, 6.3.3.2, 6.3.5.2 Table 18-2: Observed changes in marine species and ecosystems, with confidence levels for the dection of the effect of climate change and an assessment of the magnitude of its role (see also 6.2, 6.3, 30.4, Box CC-MB). Process confidence in role Context Ref detection attribution Range shifts of fish and high high major changes in species biogeographical ranges to higher [1] macroalgae latitudes or greater depths Changes in community high high major due to effects of warming, hypoxia, and sea ice retreat [1] composition Changes in abundance high medium major observed in fish, corals and intertidal species [1] Impacts on large non-fish high high major observed effects include changing abundance, phenology, [2] species, e.g. walruses, species distribution and turtle sex ratios, and are mostly penguins, and other sea-birds mediated through changes in resource availability including prey Impacts on reef-building very high high major effects mostly attributed to warming and rising extreme [3] corals temperatures, though ocean acidification may contribute Changes in fish species high medium major effect associated with loss of sea ice and latitudinal species [4] richness in temperate and shifts due to warming trends high latitude zones Key references and further related information for the assessment above: [1] (Müller et al., 2009; Stige et al., 2010); 6.3.1, 30.4, Box CC-MB; [2] (Grémillet and Boulinier, 2009; McIntyre et al., 2011),6.3.7 [3] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Baker et al., 2008; Veron et al., 2009), 6.3.1.4, 6.3.1.5, Box CC-CR ; [4] (Hiddink and ter Hofstede, 2008; Beaugrand et al., 2010); Box 6-1, 6.3.1.5. Subject to Final Copyedit 73 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-3: Illustrative selection of recent disasters related to extreme weather events, with description of the impact event, the associated climate hazard, recent climate trends relating to the weather event, and recent trends relating to the consequences of such a weather event. Date and locale Impact event Associated climate hazard Trends relating to likelihood of climate Trends relating to consequence of climate hazard hazard France, summer Approximately 15 000 Record hot days / heatwave Increasingly frequent hot days and heat Aging population, increasing population, trends in 2003 excess deaths (Hémon and (Hémon and Jougla, 2003; waves in recent decades marital status (Hémon and Jougla, 2003; Prioux, Jougla, 2003; Fouillet et Fouillet et al., 2006) (Perkins et al., 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2005; Fouillet et al., 2006; Rey et al., 2006) al., 2006) 2012) (high confidence) Difficulties staffing health services, undeveloped early warning system (Lalande et al., 2003; Fouillet et al., 2008) Altantic and Gulf Over 1000 deaths and over Record number of tropical Recent increase in frequency but no clear More population, settlement, and wealth in coastal coasts of the US$100 billion in damage storms, hurricanes, and century-scale trends in US landfalling areas (Pielke Jr et al., 2008; Schmidt et al., 2010) United States, (Beven et al., 2008) category 5 hurricanes (Bell ettropical storms or hurricanes (WGI AR5 Strengthening of building codes (IntraRisk, 2002) 2005 al., 2006) 2.6.3, Knutson et al., 2010) (high confidence) Mozambique, Over 100 000 people High rainfall in upper Zambezi Warming and decreasing rainfall leading to Increased settlement of Zambezi flood plain early 2007 displaced by flooding Basin in preceding months, lower discharge of the Zambezi (Dai et al., following dam construction (Foley, 2007) (Foley, 2007; Artur and passage of Cyclone Favio 2009) (low confidence) Development of emergency response plans Hilhorst, 2012) (Thiaw et al., 2008) Decreasing frequency of tropical cyclones (Cosgrave et al., 2007; Foley, 2007) in the Mozambique Channel during past 50 years (Mavume et al., 2009) (medium confidence) Colombia, Floods affecting 4 million Wettest year since records No clear trend in discharge of rivers in Rapid urbanisation, with high concentration of October-December people, US$7.8 billion began 40 years ago (Martinez flood-affected areas since 1940 (Hoyos et residential areas in flood-prone areas (UNISDR, 2010 total damage (Hoyos et al., et al., 2011) al., 2013) (low confidence) 2013; Álvarez-Berríos et al., 2013) 2013) Increasing vulnerability of rural population over the past decades and highly fragile urban systems (e.g. water and gas) (UNISDR, 2013) Pakistan, July- Flooding leading to 2000 Exceptionally high monsoon No substantial trend in heavy rainfall event Rapid population growth and expansion of formal September 2010 deaths, 20 million affected, rainfall over northern Pakistan frequency in northern Pakistan in past and informal human settlements (Oxley, 2011) total loss US$10 billion during July and August (Houze several decades (Wang et al., 2011c; Decreased risk through development of flood and (NDMA, 2011) Jr et al., 2011; Rajeevan et al., Webster et al., 2011) (low confidence) disease warning systems and disaster planning 2011; Webster et al., 2011) (NDMA, 2011) Increased risk from deforestation on mountainous slopes (Ali et al., 2006) Recent unrest in north constrains ability of institutions to deliver basic services (WorldBank/ADB, 2010) Subject to Final Copyedit 74 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 European Russia, Burned area > 12 500 km Record hot days (Barriopedro Trends in temperature, precipitation, Increased risk from draining of peat bogs in 1960s July-August 2010 (Müller, 2011) et al., 2011; Müller, 2011) humidity, soil moisture, and snow cover and earlier (GFMC, 2010; Müller, 2011) Unusually dry June-August toward less conducive climatic conditions Increased risk from poorly implemented (Bulygina et al., 2011) for fire (Groisman et al., 2007) (medium devolution of forest management and forest fire confidence) protection in 2007 to regional administrations (GFMC, 2010) Russia, summer Grain harvest 30% lower Hottest June-August in at least ~1°C summer warming trend over last 70 Increase in grain production partially due to 2010 than forecast (Wegren, 130 years, unusually dry June- years (Gruza and Mescherskaya, 2008; government support programs (Wegren, 2011) 2011) August (Bulygina et al., 2011) Bulygina et al., 2011) (very high confidence) Southeast Floods affecting >200 000 2010 was wettest year since Decreasing frequency of intense floods Increased development in flood-prone urban areas Queensland, people, >30 000 homes 1974, with landfall of tropical since 1840 (Van den Honert and (Van den Honert and McAneney, 2011) Australia, January flooded, damages and cost cyclone in December and wet McAneney, 2011) (medium confidence) Lack of development of riverine flood insurance 2011 to economy of US$2.5-10 start to January resulting in (Van den Honert and McAneney, 2011; Ma et al., billion (Hayes and highest flood since 1974 (Van 2012) Goonetilleke, 2012) den Honert and McAneney, 2011; Hayes and Goonetilleke, 2012) Thailand, 2011 Prolonged inundation of One of the wettest monsoon No detectable change in preciptation over Economic development focused on large industrial urban and industrialized seasons on record in middle the basin (Van Oldenborgh et al., 2012) estates built in flood plains (Chongvilaivan, 2012; areas, manufacturing and upper Chao Phraya Basin, (low confidence) Courbage et al., 2012) losses of about US$32 resulting in flooding (Komori Recent spell of political instability (Courbage et billion (WorldBank, 2012) et al., 2012; Van Oldenborgh et al., 2012) al., 2012) Subsistence from groundwater pumping (Phien- Wej et al., 2006) Contiguous United Agricultural drought, with Second warmest summer and ~0.5ºC warming in summer over the last Significant growth in area dedicated to soy and States, summer 57% of cropland and 43% warmest month (July) in the century (Menne et al., 2009) (very high maize (FAOSTAT, 2013) 2012 of farms experiencing at contiguous U.S., and one of the confidence) least severe drought driest March-July periods in No substantial long-term trend in drought (Crutchfield, 2013) the central U.S. in the 118-year occurrence (Peterson et al., 2013) (medium record (Crouch et al., 2013; confidence) Kumar et al., 2013) Subject to Final Copyedit 75 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-4: Cases of regional livelihood impacts associated with weather- and climate related exevents, inter-annual climate variability or climate change (see also Table 18-3;13.2.1.1). Impacted Population Climate-related driver Impact on livelihood Reference Small-scale farmers, Drought Landscape transformation causing Tschakert et al. (2013) Ghana (past 20-30 years) emotional distress, sense of loss of belonging Middle-class farmers, Drought Landscape transformation, income Alston (2011) Australia (2000s) loss from agriculture, social conflict, poverty Arctic indigenous Warming Changing ice and snow conditions, 28.2.4; Table 18-9; Hovelsrud et peoples (past decades) dwindling access to hunting grounds al. (2008); Ford ( 2009a); Brubaker et al. (2011); Arctic Council (2013); Crate (2013) Urban populations in Flood frequency and Direct impacts on people and loss of Douglas et al.( 2008); Adelekan Maputo, Accra, severity increase physical assets (e.g. housing) (2010) Nairobi, Lagos, (1990s and 2000s) Kampala Industry workers in Temperature variability and Decrease of fully workable days Ayyappan et al. (2009); India heat waves since 1960Limited ability to carry Balakrishnan et al.( 2010); Dash (1960s to present) out physical work, health impacts and Kjellström (2011) Farmers in Sea-level rise Salt water intrusion, shift from Pouliotte et al. (2009) Subarnabad, (~1980s to present) agriculture to shrimp farming, loss of Bangladesh agricultural livelihoods Women farmers, Rainfall-related climate Adaptation practices in agriculture Carr (2008) Ghana variability produce gender inequalities (~1990s and 2000s) Cambodian rice Warming, rainfall-related Shift in income generation patterns Resurreccion (2011) farmers climate variability between men and women (1980s to present) Poor children in Africa Weather and climate-related Food price shocks, reduced caloric Alderman (2010) and Latin America events intake, physical stunting, long-term (1980s to present) effects such as reduced lifetime earnings Smallholder farmers in Locally perceived changes Stress on household resources due to McDowell and Hess (2012) highlands of Bolivia in temperature means and need to respond to increasing plant extremes, and rainfall pests, switching to other crop types seasonality or livestock (~1990s and 2000s) Subject to Final Copyedit 76 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-5: Observed impacts of climate change on mountains, snow, and ice, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature. Mountains, snow and ice conf. role of climate driver reference conf. detect. climate behaviour attrib. Africa Retreat of tropical highland glaciers in East Africa [Table 22-3; (Mölg et al., 2008; Taylor very high major warming, no change high et al., 2009; Mölg et al., 2012)] drying Europe Retreat of Alpine, Scandinavian and Icelandic glaciers [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.3.3; (Bauder very high major warming no change high et al., 2007; Björnsson and Pálsson, 2008; Paul and Haeberli, 2008; WGMS, 2008; Zemp et al., 2009; Andreassen et al., 2012; Marzeion et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013)] Increase in rock slope failures in Western Alps [18.3.1.3; 23.3.1.4, (Fischer et al., 2012; high major warming no change medium Huggel et al., 2012a)] Asia Permafrost degradation in Siberia, Central Asia, and the Tibetan Plateau [WGI AR5 high major warming no change high Chapter 10.5.3; Box 3-2; 24.4.2.2; (Romanovsky et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2013)] Shrinking mountain glaciers across Asia [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.3.2,4.3.3; Box 3-1; 24.4.1.2; high major warming no change medium (Bolch et al., 2012; Cogley, 2012; Gardelle et al., 2012; Kääb et al., 2012; Yao et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013; Stokes et al., 2013)] Australasia Substantial reduction in ice and glacier ice volume in New Zealand [WGI AR5 Chapter high major warming no change medium 4.3.3; Table 25-1; (Nicholls, 2006; Chinn et al., 2012)] Significant decline in late-season snow depth at three out of four alpine sites in Australia high major warming no change medium (1957-2002) [Table 25-1; (Hennessy et al., 2008) North Shrinkage of glaciers across western and northern North America [WGI AR5 Chapter high major warming no change high America 4.3.3; (Gardner et al., 2013)] Decreasing amount of water in spring snowpack in western North America (1960-2002) high major warming no change high (Stewart et al., 2005; Mote, 2006) South and Shrinkage of Andean glaciers [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.3.3; 27.3.1.1, Table 27-3; (Vuille et al., high major warming no change high Central 2008; Bradley et al., 2009; Jomelli et al., 2009; Poveda and Pineda, 2009; Marzeion et al., America 2012; Gardner et al., 2013; Rabatel et al., 2013)] Polar Regions Decreasing Arctic sea ice cover in summer [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.2.2.1; (ACIA, 2005; very high major air and ocean no change high AMAP, 2011)] warming, Δ ocean circulation Reduction in ice volume in Arctic glaciers [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.3.3; (ACIA, 2005; Nuth et very high major warming no change high al., 2010; AMAP, 2011; Gardner et al., 2011; Moholdt et al., 2012; Gardner et al., 2013)] Decreasing snow cover across the Arctic [28.2.3.1.2; (AMAP, 2011; Callaghan et al., high major warming no change medium 2011)] Widespread permafrost degradation, especially in the southern Arctic [28.2.1.1; (AMAP, high major warming no change high 2011; Olsen et al., 2011)] Ice mass loss along coastal Antarctica [WGI AR5 Chapter 4.2.3,4.4, 4.6; 10.5.2.1; (Gardner medium major warming no change medium et al., 2013; Miles et al., 2013)] Subject to Final Copyedit 77 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-6: Observed impacts of climate change on rivers, lakes and soil moisture, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non- climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature. Rivers, lakes and soil moisture conf. role of climate driver reference conf. detect. climate behaviour attrib. Africa Reduced discharge in West African rivers (d'Orgeval and Polcher, 2008; Dai et al., medium major reduced no change low 2009; Di Baldassarre et al., 2010) precipitation Lake surface warming and water column stratification increases in the Great Lakes high major warming no change high and Lake Kariba [22.3.2.2; (Tierney et al., 2010; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011; Powers et al., 2011)] Increased soil moisture drought in the Sahel since 1970, partially wetter conditions medium major precipitation no change medium since 1990 [22.2.2.1, 22.2.3; (Hoerling et al., 2006; Giannini et al., 2008; Greene et al., 2009; Seneviratne et al., 2012)] Europe Changes in the occurrence of extreme river discharges and floods [23.2.3; low minor precipitation, no change very low (Schmocker-Fackel and Naef, 2010; Beniston et al., 2011; Cutter et al., 2012; extreme Vorogushyn and Merz, 2012; Kundzewicz et al., 2013)] precipitation Asia Changes in water availability in many Chinese rivers (Casassa et al., 2009; Li et al., high minor precipitation changes due low 2010; Shrestha and Aryal, 2011) to land use Increased flow in many rivers due to shrinking glaciers in the Himalayas and high major warming, snow no change high Central Asia [Box 3-1;(Casassa et al., 2009; Li et al., 2010; Shrestha and Aryal, 2011; Zhang et al., 2011)] Earlier timing of maximum spring flood in Russian rivers [28.2.1.1; (Shiklomanov et high major warming no change medium al., 2007; Tan et al., 2011)] Reduced soil moisture in North Central and NE China 1950-2006 [24.3.1, 24.4.1.2; medium major warming, no change medium (Sheffield and Wood, 2007; Wang et al., 2011a; Seneviratne et al., 2012)] precipitation Surface water degradation in parts of Asia [24.4.1.2; (Prathumratana et al., 2008; medium minor warming, changes due medium Delpla et al., 2009; Huang et al., 2009)] precipitation to land use Australasia Intensification of hydrological drought due to regional warming in South East low minor warming no change low Australia [Table 25-1; (Nicholls, 2006; Cai et al., 2009)] Reduced inflow in river systems in south-western Australia (since the mid 1970s) high major precipitation, no change high [Table 25-1; 25.5.1; (Cai and Cowan, 2006; Nicholls, 2010)] warming North America Shift to earlier peak flow in snow dominated rivers in western North America [WGI high major warming, snow no change high AR5 Chapter 2.6.2; (Barnett et al., 2008)] Runoff increases in the Midwestern and Northwestern US, decreases in Southern high minor precipitation, no change medium states (Georgakakos et al., 2013) warming Subject to Final Copyedit 78 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 South and Changes in extreme flows in Amazon River [27.3.1.1; (Rodríguez-Morales et al., high major precipitation, no change medium Central 2010; Butt et al., 2011; Wang et al., 2011b; Espinoza et al., 2013)] extreme America precipitation Changing discharge patterns in rivers in the Western Andes; for major river basins in medium minor warming no change medium Colombia discharge has decreased during the last 30-40 years [27.3.1.1, Table 27-3; (Vuille et al., 2008; Bradley et al., 2009; Jomelli et al., 2009; Poveda and Pineda, 2009; Rabatel et al., 2013)] Increased streamflow in sub-basins of the La Plata River [27.3.1.1; (Pasquini and high major precipitation increase due high Depetris, 2007; Krepper et al., 2008; Saurral et al., 2008; Conway and Mahé, 2009; to land use Krepper and Zucarelli, 2010; Doyle and Barros, 2011)] Polar Regions Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers (1997–2007) [28.2.1.1; high major warming, no change low (Overeem and Syvitsky, 2010)] precipitation, snow cover Winter minimum river flow increase in most sectors of the Arctic [28.2.1.1; (Tan et high major warming, snow no change medium al., 2011)] cover Increasing lake water temperatures 1985–2009, prolonged ice-free seasons [28.2.1.1; medium major warming no change medium (Callaghan et al., 2010; Schneider and Hook, 2010)] Thermokarst lakes disappear due to permafrost degradation in the low Arctic, new high major warming no change high ones created in areas of formerly frozen peat [28.2.1.1; (Riordan et al., 2006; Marsh et al., 2008; Prowse and Brown, 2010)] Small Islands Increased water scarcity in Jamaica [(Gamble et al., 2010; Jury and Winter, 2010)] low minor precipitation increase due very low to water use Subject to Final Copyedit 79 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-7: Observed impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non-climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature. Terrestrial ecosystems conf. role of climate driver reference behaviour conf. detect. climate attrib. Africa Tree density decreases in Sahel and semi-arid Morocco [22.3.2.1; (Gonzalez medium major precipitation changes due to land use medium et al., 2012; Le Polain de Waroux and Lambin, 2012)] Range shifts of several southern plants and animals: South African bird high major warming changes due to land use medium species polewards; Madagascan reptiles and amphibians upwards; Namib aloe contracting ranges [Table 22-3,(Foden et al., 2007; Raxworthy et al., 2008; Hockey and Midgley, 2009; Hockey et al., 2011)] Wildfires increase on Mt. Kilimanjaro [Table 22-3, (Hemp, 2005)] medium major warming, drying no change low Europe Earlier greening, earlier leaf emergence and fruiting in temperate and high major warming no change high boreal trees [4.3.2.1; (Menzel et al., 2006)] Increased colonization of alien plant species in Europe [4.2.4.6; Table 23-6; medium major warming some invasion medium (Walther et al., 2009)] Earlier arrival of migratory birds in Europe since 1970 [4.2.4.6; Table 23-6; medium major warming no change medium (Møller et al., 2008)] Upward shift in tree-line in Europe [18.3.2.3; Table 23-6; (Gehrig-Fasel et medium major warming changes due to land use low al., 2007; Lenoir et al., 2008)] Increasing burnt forest areas during recent decades in Portugal and Greece high major warming, some increase due to land high [Table 23-6; (Camia and Amatulli, 2009; Hoinka et al., 2009; Costa et al., 2011; precipitation use Koutsias et al., 2012)] Asia Changes in plant phenology and growth in many parts of Asia (earlier high major warming no change medium greening), particularly in the North and the East [4.3.2.1; Figure 4-5; 24.4.2.2; (Ma and Zhou, 2012; Panday and Ghimire, 2012; Shrestha et al., 2012; Ogawa- Onishi and Berry, 2013)] Distribution shifts in many plant and animal species, particularly in the high major warming no change medium North of Asia, upwards in elevation or polewards [4.3.2.5; Figure 4-5; 24.4.2.2; (Moiseev et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2011; Jump et al., 2012; Ogawa-Onishi and Berry, 2013)] Invasion of Siberian larch forests by pine and spruce during recent medium major warming no change low decades, growth decline in Mongolian larches [24.4.2.2.; (Kharuk et al., 2010; Dulamsuren et al., 2011; Lloyd et al., 2011)] Advance of shrubs into the Siberian tundra [4.3.3.4; 24.4.2.2., 28.2.3.1; high major warming no change high (Henry and Elmendorf, 2010; Blok et al., 2011)] Subject to Final Copyedit 80 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Australasia Changes in genetics, growth, distribution and phenology of many species, high major warming fluctuations due to variable high in particular birds, butterflies and plants in Australia [Table 25-3; local climates, land use, (Chambers, 2008; Chessman, 2009; Green, 2010; Kearney et al., 2010; Keatley pollution, invasive species and Hudson, 2012; Chambers et al., 2013b)] Expansion of some wetlands and contraction of adjacent woodlands in SE medium major precipitation, no change low Australia [Table 25-3; (Keith et al., 2010)] warming Expansion of monsoon rainforest at expense of savannah and grasslands in medium major precipitation, no change medium N Australia [Table 25-3; (Banfai and Bowman, 2007; Bowman et al., 2010)] increased CO2 Migration of glass eels advanced by several weeks in Waikato River, New medium major warming no change low Zealand [Table 25-3; (Jellyman et al., 2009)] North America Phenology changes and species distribution shifts upward in elevation and high major warming no change medium northward across multiple taxa [26.4.1; (Parmesan and Galbraith, 2004; Parmesan, 2006; Kelly and Goulden, 2008; Moritz et al., 2008; Tingley et al., 2009)] Increased wildfire frequency in subarctic conifer forests and tundra high major warming no change medium [28.2.3.1.4; (Mack et al., 2011; Mann et al., 2012)] Regional increases in tree mortality and insect infestations in forests medium minor warming no change low [26.4.2.1; (Van Mantgem et al., 2009; Peng et al., 2011)] Increase in wildfire activity, fire frequency and duration, and burnt area in high minor warming, changes due to land use and medium boreal forest of North America [Box 26-2; (Gillett et al., 2004; Westerling et precipitation fire management al., 2006; Girardin et al., 2013)] South and Increased tree mortality and forest fire in the Amazon [4.3.3.1.3;(Phillips et medium minor warming no change low Central al., 2009)] America Degrading and receding rainforest in the Amazon [18.3.2.4; 27.2.2.1, low minor warming deforestation and land low 27.3.2.1; (Etter et al., 2006; Nepstad et al., 2006; Oliveira et al., 2007; degradation Wassenaar et al., 2007; Killeen et al., 2008; Nepstad and Stickler, 2008)] Polar Regions Increase in shrub cover in tundra in North America and Eurasia high major warming no change high [28.2.3.1.2; (Tape et al., 2006; Walker et al., 2006; Henry and Elmendorf, 2010; Blok et al., 2011; Elmendorf et al., 2012; Tape et al., 2012)] Advance of Arctic tree-line in latitude and altitude [28.2.3.1.2; (AMAP, high major warming no change medium 2011; Hedenås et al., 2011; Van Bogaert et al., 2011)] Loss of snow-bed ecosystems and tussock tundra [28.2.3.1.2; (Björk and high major warming, no change high Molau, 2007; Molau, 2010a; Hedenås et al., 2011; Callaghan et al., 2013)] precipitation Impacts on tundra animals from increased ice layers in snow pack, medium major precipitation, no change medium following rain-on-snow events [28.2.3.1.3; (Callaghan et al., 2013; Hansen et warming al., 2013)] Subject to Final Copyedit 81 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Changes in breeding area and population size of subarctic birds, due to high major warming no change medium snowbed reduction and/or tundra shrub encroachment (Molau, 2010b; Callaghan et al., 2013) Increase in plant species ranges in the West Antarctic Peninsula and high major warming no change high nearby islands over the past 50 years [28.2.3.2; (Fowbert and Smith, 1994; Parnikoza et al., 2009)] Increasing phytoplankton productivity in Signy Island lake waters (Quayle high major warming no change high et al., 2002; Laybourn-Parry, 2003) Small Islands Changes in tropical bird populations in Mauritius [29.3.2; (Senapathi et al., medium major precipitation no change medium 2011)] Decline of an endemic plant in Hawai’i (Krushelnycky et al., 2013) medium major warming, no change medium precipitation Upward trend in tree-lines and associated fauna on high elevation islands low minor warming no change low [29.3.2; (Benning et al., 2002; Jump et al., 2006)] Subject to Final Copyedit 82 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-8: Observed impacts of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non- climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature. Coastal and marine ecosystems conf. role of climate driver reference behaviour conf. detect. climate attrib. Europe Northward shifts in the distributions of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and high major ocean warming no change high benthic invertebrates in the NE Atlantic [Box 6-1; Table 6-2; 6.3.1;23.6.5, 30.5.1.1; (Beaugrand et al., 2009; Philippart et al., 2011)] Northward and depth shift in distribution of many fish species across high major ocean warming no change medium European seas [6.3.1; Table 6-2; 23.6.4; 23.6.5; 30.5.3.1;(Perry et al., 2005; Pörtner et al., 2008; Beaugrand et al., 2009; Beaugrand et al., 2010; Beaugrand and Kirby, 2010; Hermant et al., 2010; Philippart et al., 2011)] Phenology changes in plankton in the NE Atlantic [Box 6-1; 6.3.1; 23.6.5, medium major ocean warming no change medium 30.5.1.1; (Beaugrand et al., 2002; Edwards and Richardson, 2004; Beaugrand et al., 2009; Philippart et al., 2011)] Spread of warm water species into the Mediterreanean [23.6.5, 30.5.3.1.5; high major ocean warming changes due to medium (Boero et al., 2008; Lasram and Mouillot, 2009; Raitsos et al., 2010)] invasive species and human impacts Asia Coral reefs and large seaweeds decline in tropical Asian waters and in the high major ocean warming decline due to human high coastal waters of Western Japan [24.4.3.2; 30.5.1.4.3, (McLeod et al., 2010; impacts Krishnan et al., 2011; Nagai et al., 2011; Coles and Riegl, 2012)] Northward range extension of coral reefs and predatory fish in the Japan Sea medium major ocean warming no change medium [24.4.3.2, (Yamano et al., 2011; Tian et al., 2012; Ogawa-Onishi and Berry, 2013)] Shift from sardines to anchovies in the western North Pacific [6.3.1, medium major ocean warming fluctuations due to low 6.3.6;Table 6-2, (Takasuka et al., 2007; Takasuka et al., 2008)] fisheries Increased coastal erosion in Arctic Asia [24.4.3.2, (Razumov, 2010; Forbes, medium major permafrost degradation, no change low 2011; Lantuit et al., 2011)] ocean warming, sea ice Australasia Southward shifts in the distribution of marine species near Australia [Table high major ocean warming changes due to short medium 25-3; (Ling et al., 2009; Pitt et al., 2010; Neuheimer et al., 2011; Wernberg et al., term env. fluctuations, 2011; Wernberg et al., 2011)] fishing and pollution Change in timing of migration of seabirds in Australia [25.6.2.1; (Chambers et medium major air and ocean warming no change low al., 2011; Chambers et al., 2013a)] Increase in coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and Western Australian high major ocean warming pollution, physical high Reefs [6.3.1.4, 6.3.1.5, Table 25-3; 25.6.2.1; (Cooper et al., 2008; De'ath et al., disturbance 2009; De'ath et al., 2012; Moore et al., 2012)] Subject to Final Copyedit 83 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Changes in coral disease patterns at Great Barrier Reef [25.6.2.1; Table 25-3; medium major ocean warming pollution medium (Bruno et al., 2007; Sato et al., 2009; Dalton et al., 2010)] North Northward shifts in the distributions of NW Atlantic fish species [30.5.1.1; high major ocean warming no change high America (Nye et al., 2009; Lucey and Nye, 2010; Nye et al., 2011)] Changes in musselbeds along the west coast of the United States (Smith et al., high major ocean warming, no change high 2006; Menge et al., 2008; Harley, 2011) Changes in migration and survival of salmon in the northeast Pacific (Table 6- high major ocean warming no change high 2, Eliason et al., 2011; Kovach et al., 2012) Increased coastal erosion in Alaska and Canada [18.3.1.1; 18.3.3.1; (Mars and high major permafrost degradation, no change medium Houseknecht, 2007; Forbes, 2011; Lantuit et al., 2011)] ocean warming, sea ice South and Increase in coral bleaching in the western Caribbean [27.3.3.1; (Guzman et al., high major ocean warming pollution, physical high Central 2008; Manzello et al., 2008; Carilli et al., 2009; Eakin et al., 2010)] disturbance America Mangrove degradation on north coast of South America [27.3.3.1; (Alongi, low minor ocean warming degradation due to low 2008; Lampis, 2010; Polidoro et al., 2010; Giri et al., 2011)] pollution and land use Polar Increased coastal erosion across the Arctic [18.3.1.1; 18.3.3.1; 28.2.4.2; 28.3.4; medium major permafrost degradation, no change medium Regions (Mars and Houseknecht, 2007; Razumov, 2010; Forbes, 2011; Lantuit et al., ocean warming, sea ice 2011)] Negative effects on non-migratory Arctic species [28.2.2.1; (Laidre et al., 2008; high major atmospheric and ocean no change high Amstrup et al., 2010; McIntyre et al., 2011)] warming, circulation change, sea ice Decreased reproductive success in Arctic seabirds [28.2.2.1.2; (Gaston et al., medium major air and ocean warming, no change medium 2009; Grémillet and Boulinier, 2009)] ocean circulation, sea ice Decline in Southern Ocean seals and seabirds [28.2.2.2; (Croxall et al., 2002; high major ocean warming no change medium Patterson et al., 2003; Jenouvrier et al., 2005; Véran et al., 2007; Forcada et al., 2008; Trathan et al., 2011; Chambers et al., 2013a)] Reduced thickness of foraminiferal shells in the Southern Ocean [6.3.2; medium major ocean acification no change medium 28.2.2.2; (Moy et al., 2009)] Reduced density of krill in the Scotia Sea (Atkinson et al., 2004; Trivelpiece et medium major ocean warming, ocean no change medium al., 2011) circulation, sea ice Small Increased coral bleaching near many tropical small islands [29.3.1.2; (Alling high major ocean warming degradation due to high Islands et al., 2007; Bruno and Selig, 2007; Oxenford et al., 2008; Sandin et al., 2008)] fishing and pollution Degradation of mangroves, wetlands and seagrass around small islands low minor sea level rise, degradation due to very low [29.3.1.2; (McKee et al., 2007; Gilman et al., 2008; Schleupner, 2008; Krauss et atmospheric and ocean other disturbances al., 2010; Marbà and Duarte, 2010; Rankey, 2011)] warming Subject to Final Copyedit 84 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Inreasing flooding and erosion [29.3.1.1; (Webb, 2006; Webb et al., 2007; low minor sea level rise erosion due to human low Yamano et al., 2007; Cambers, 2009; Novelo-Casanova and Suarez, 2010; Storey activities, natural and Hunter, 2010; Ballu et al., 2011; Rankey, 2011; Ford, 2012; Romine et al., erosion and accretion 2013)] Degradation of groundwater and freshwater ecosystems due to saline low minor sea level rise degradation due to low intrusion [29.3.2; (White et al., 2007a; White et al., 2007b; Ross et al., 2009; pollution, groundwater Carreira et al., 2010; Terry and Falkland, 2010; White and Falkland, 2010; pumping Goodman et al., 2012)] Subject to Final Copyedit 85 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-9: Observed impacts of climate change on human and managed systems, over the past several decades, across major world regions, with descriptors for: i) the confidence in detection of a climate change impact, ii) the relative contribution of climate change to the observed change, compared to that of non- climatic drivers, iii) the main climatic driver (s) causing the impacts, iv) the reference behavior of the system in the absence of climate change, and v) the confidence in attribution of the impacts to climate change. References to related chapters in this report are given as well as key references to other IPCC reports and the scientific literature. Human and managed systems conf. role of climate driver reference behaviour conf. detect. climate attrib. Africa Adaptative responses to changing rainfall by South African farmers low major precipitation changes due to economic very low [13.2.1.1; (Thomas et al., 2007)] conditions Decline in fruit-bearing trees in Sahel (Wezel and Lykke, 2006; Maranz, medium major precipitation no change low 2009) Malaria increases in Kenyan highlands [11.4.4; (O'Meara et al., 2010; low minor warming changes due to vaccination, low Alonso et al., 2011; Stern et al., 2011)] drug resistance, demography, livelihoods Reduced fisheries productivity of Great Lakes and Lake Kariba low minor warming changes due to fisheries low [7.2.1.2; 13.2.1.1; 22.3.2.2; (Descy and Sarmento, 2008; Hecky et al., management and land use 2010; Ndebele-Murisa et al., 2011; Marshall, 2012)] Europe Shift from cold-related mortality to heat-related mortality in England medium major warming changes due to exposure and low and Wales [18.4.4; 23.5.1; (Christidis et al., 2010)] health care Impacts on livelihoods of Sámi people in Northern Europe (Eira, 2012; medium major warming economic and sociopolitical medium Mathiesen et al., 2013) changes Stagnation of wheat yields in some countries in recent decades [23.4.1; high minor warming increase due to improved medium (Brisson et al., 2010; Kristensen et al., 2011)] technology Positive yield impacts for some crops mainly in Northern Europe high minor warming increase due to improved medium [Figure 7-2; 23.4.1, (Jaggard et al., 2007; Supit et al., 2010; Gregory and technology Marshall, 2012)] Spread of bluetongue virus in sheep, and of ticks across parts of high minor warming no change medium Europe [23.4.2; (Arzt et al., 2010; Randolph and Rogers, 2010; Van Dijk et al., 2010; Guis et al., 2012; Petney et al., 2012)] Asia Impacts on livelihoods of indigenous groups in Arctic Russia [13.2.1.2; medium major warming, snow economic and sociopolitical low 18.4.6; Table 18-4; 28.2.4.2; (Crate, 2013)] cover, sea ice changes Negative impacts on aggregate wheat yields in South Asia [7.2.1; Figure medium minor warming, increase due to improved medium 7-2; (Pathak et al., 2003; Auffhammer and Vincent, 2012)] precipitation technology Negative impacts on aggregate wheat and maize yields in China [7.2.1; low minor warming increase due to improved low Figure 7-2; (Tao et al., 2006; Tao et al., 2008; You et al., 2009; Chen et technology al., 2010; Tao et al., 2012) Increases in a water-borne disease in Israel (Paz et al., 2007) low minor warming no change low Subject to Final Copyedit 86 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Australasia Advance timing of wine-grape maturation in recent decades [Table 25- high major warming advance due to improved medium 3; (Webb et al., 2012)] management Shift in winter vs. summer human mortality in Australia [18.4.4; medium major warming changes due to exposure and low 25.8.11, 11.4.1; (Bennett et al., 2013)] health care Relocation or diversification of agricultural activities in Australia medium minor warming changes due to policy, low [25.7.2; Box 25-5; (Gaydon et al., 2010; Howden et al., 2010; Park et al., markets, and short-term 2012; Thorburn et al., 2012) climate variability Central and More vulnerable livelihood trajectories for indigenous Aymara high major warming increasing social and medium South America farmers in Bolivia, due to water shortage [13.1.4; (McDowell and Hess, economic stress 2012)] Increase in agricultural yields and expansion of agricultural areas in medium major precipitation increase due to improved medium Southeastern South America [27.3.4.1; (Magrin et al., 2007; Barros, increase technology 2010; Hoyos et al., 2013)] North America Impacts on livelihoods of indigenous groups in the Canadian Arctic medium major warming, snow economic and sociopolitical medium [18.4.6; Table 18-4; 28.2.4.2; (Hovelsrud et al., 2008; Ford et al., 2009; cover, sea ice changes Beaumier and Ford, 2010; Pearce et al., 2010; Brubaker et al., 2011) Polar Regions Impact on livelihoods of Arctic indigenous peoples [18.4.6; Table 18-4; medium major warming, snow economic and sociopolitical medium 28.2.4.2; (Hovelsrud et al., 2008; Ford et al., 2009; Beaumier and Ford, cover, sea ice changes 2010; Pearce et al., 2010; Eira, 2012; Crate, 2013; Mathiesen et al., 2013)] Increase of shipping traffic across the Bering Strait [28.2.6.1.3; Figure medium major warming, sea no change medium 28-4; (Robards, 2013)] ice Small Islands Increased degradation of coastal fisheries due to direct effects and low minor ocean warming coastal fisheries degraded by low effects of increased coral reef bleaching [Box CC-CR; 18.3.3.3; 18.4.1.2; overfishing and pollution 29.3.1.2; 30.6.2.1] Subject to Final Copyedit 87 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-10: Confidence in detection and attribution of observed trends in natural disasters related to extreme weather. The assessment is for the impacts on various systems, in attribution of those trends to climate change, and in the existence of observed trends in that extreme weather. The assessment of confidence in detection is against the specified reference behaviour, while the assessment for attribution is for the indicated minor or major role of observed climate trends. The confidence statements refer to a globally balanced assessment. Impacts and impact events Climate/weather drivers Reference Observed Confidence Reference Attribution Role of Observed trend Confidence trend in detection behaviour climate in change existence of trend Earlier timing medium no change medium major Decreasing snow high 3.2.7; Tables 18-5 and decreasing pack and 18-6; WGI AR5 Increasing heavy medium 4.5; Seneviratne et magnitude of precipitation al. (2012) snowmelt amounts floods Changes in low changes due to low minor Trends in extreme medium Min et al. (2011); flood land use rainfall amounts WGI AR5 2.5.3; Increased medium 2.6.2 frequency and evapotranspiration magnitude in and decreased soil non- moisture snowmelt-fed rivers Increased very low erosion due to very low minor Increasingly high 18.3.3.1; 5.4.2; coastal erosion shoreline frequent high storm WGI AR5 3.7.5 modification waves and surges in low and mid and natural latitudes processes Increased medium no change medium major Lack of sea ice very high Table 18-8; erosion of protection from 18.3.1.1; 24.4.3.2; wind storms Arctic coasts 28.2.4.2; 28.3.4; Forbes (2011); WGI AR5 4.2.2 Increase in low no change low major Increasingly medium Huggel et al. high-mountain frequent and intense (2012a); Seneviratne heatwaves et al. (2012); Allen rock slope and Huggel (2013), failures WGI AR5 2.6.1, Figure 18-2 Increased very high changes due to high major Increasingly very high Table 18-2; Table coral pollution, frequent extreme 18-8; 5.2.4.2; 6.3.1; physical hot surface waters bleaching Box 18-2; 24.4.3.2; disturbance, and fishing 27.3.3.1; 29.3.1.2; 30.3.1.1; 30.5 Increased low changes due to low minor Increased frequency low 18.4.3.1; 10.7.3, monetary exposure and of storms Seneviratne et al. wealth Increased frequency low (2012); WGI AR5 losses of floods 2.6 Increased heat low changes due to very low minor Increased frequency medium 11.4.1; Seneviratne related exposure and of heat waves et al. (2012);WGI health care mortality AR5 2.6.1 Subject to Final Copyedit 88 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Table 18-11: Confidence in detection of impacts on aggregate impact measures against the specified reference behaviour and confidence in attribution of the specified role of climate change in those observed changes. Global aggregated impact Confidence in Reference behaviour Confidence in Role of Reference detection attribution climate change Glacier ice volume very high no change high major 3.2.2; 18.3.1.1 reduction Permafrost degradation and high no change high major 18.3.1.1 increase of active layer thickness Increase in terrestrial net high changes due to nitrogen low major 18.3.2.2 primary production and deposition, afforestation, and carbon stocks land management Negative yield impacts on medium changes due to technology, medium minor 18.4.1.1; Figure global wheat and maize practice, and coverage 7-2 yields Increase in monetary losses low changes due to exposure and low minor 10.7.3;18.4.3.1 due to extreme weather wealth Subject to Final Copyedit 89 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Figure 18-1: Schematic of the subject covered in this chapter. The Earth system consists of three coupled and overlapping systems. Direct drivers of the human system on the climate system are denoted with a red arrow; some of these drivers may also directly affect natural systems. These effects can in turn influence other systems (dashed red arrows). Further influences of each of the systems on each other (confounding factors) that do not involve climate drivers are represented by blue arrows. Examples of drivers and their impacts are given in the table. Adapted from Stone et al. (2013). Subject to Final Copyedit 90 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Figure 18-2: Assessment of confidence in detection of observed climate change impacts in global freshwater systems over the past several decades, with confidence in attribution of a major role of climate change, based on expert assessment contained in this section 18.3.1 and augmented by subsections of Chapter 3 as indicated. Numbered symbols refer to: Cryosphere (18.3.1.1): 1 shrinking glaciers (3.2.2), 2 changes in glacier lakes, 3 erosion and degradation of arctic coastal permafrost, 4 degradation and thaw of lowland and mountain permafrost; Rivers, lakes and groundwater (18.3.1.2): 5 groundwater storage change (3.2.4), 6 changing river flow (3.2.3), 7 changing flood frequency or intensity (3.2.3), 8 reduction in lake and river ice duration or thickness in the Northern Hemisphere; Erosion and landslides (18.3.1.3): 9 Increasing erosion (3.2.6), 10 changes in shallow landslides (3.2.6), 11 increasing frequency of high-mountain rock failures. [Illustration to be redrawn to conform to IPCC publication specifications.] Subject to Final Copyedit 91 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Figure 18-3: Global patterns of observed climate change impacts. Each colored symbol in the top panels indicates a class of systems for which climate change has played a major role in observed changes in at least one measure of that class across the respective region, and the range of confidence in attribution. Regional-scale impacts where climate change has played a minor role are shown by colored open symbols in a box in the respective region. Localized impacts are indicated with symbols on the map, placed in the approximate area of their occurrence. Impacts on physical (blue), biological (green) and human (red) systems are differentiated by color. This map represents a graphical synthesis of tables 18-5, 18-6, 18-7, 18-8 and 18-9. Subject to Final Copyedit 92 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Figure 18-4: Major systems where new evidence indicates interconnected, ‘cascading’ impacts from recent climate change through several natural and human subsystems. Bracketed text indicates confidence in the detection of a climate change effect and the attribution of observed impacts to climate change. The role of climate change can be major (solid arrow) or minor (dashed arrow). Confidence is assessed in 18.3, 18.4, 18.5, and 18.6. [Illustration to be redrawn to conform to IPCC publication specifications.] Subject to Final Copyedit 93 28 October 2013 FINAL DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 18 Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute Prior to Public Release on 31 March 2014 Figure 18-5: Confidence in detection and attribution of observed impacts on "Unique and Threatened Systems" as a result of recent climate change. Global assessments (large upper case) and regional assessments (small lower case) are discussed in 18.3.1.1, 18.3.2.4, Box 18-2, and Tables 18-2 and 18-5 through 18-9. Attribution assessments are for a minor (open font) or major (bold) role of climate change, as indicated. [Illustration to be redrawn to conform to IPCC publication specifications.] Figure 18-6: Confidence in detection of observed climate change impacts in physical natural systems, biological systems, and human and managed systems across regions, and confidence in attribution of such trends to observed climate change as a major or minor driver. Based on assessments developed in Tables 18-5 through 18-9. [Illustration to be redrawn to conform to IPCC publication specifications.] Subject to Final Copyedit 94 28 October 2013