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Re: GG Reality 2008, `carbonate pump'



Dear Dr. Sommerkorn,

I forgot to mention the last blunder
(I did not mark it conspicuously enough in the printed paper...).

It appears on page 13 in the third paragraph. 0.6 K additional warming concerns _2100_, under the old AR4 assumptions (those of Meehl et al as well). Equilibrium additional warming would be 1 K, even under outdated assumptions, as a 2001 NOAA page says,
     Linkname: Global Warming Commitment : Temperatures Would Rise Even
          With No ...
        URL: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~kd/OnePagers/OnePageB01.pdf

Recent knowledge (longterm climate sensitivity being twice the Charney one) would change it rather to 2 K. 2+-1 K is perhaps a 90 % confidence interval for a realistic guess of a maximal further temperature increase within next centuries, for zero carbon net anthropogenic emissions further on. (I was unable to find a recent paper about it.)

best regards,
 Jenik