| Typ | Rukopis |
|---|---|
| Autor | (comment) |
| Datum | 2020-10-30 |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 23:20:43 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:28:57 |
| Typ | Rukopis |
|---|---|
| Autor | (comment) |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 11:48:12 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:31:33 |
| Typ | Rukopis |
|---|---|
| Autor | (IPCC, AR4 SYR) |
| URL | http://amper.ped.muni.cz/gw/ipcc_cz/gloss_en_cz.html#ekvivalent_oxidu_uhli%C4%8Dit%C3%A9ho |
| Datum | 2007 |
| Extra | quote from the report |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 22:13:58 |
| Datum přidání | 30. 11. 2020 21:42:39 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:48:38 |
| Typ | Záznam ve slovníku |
|---|---|
| Autor | (IPCC) |
| Překladatel | Jiří Došek |
| Překladatel | Jan Hollan |
| URL | http://amper.ped.muni.cz/gw/ipcc_cz/gloss_en_cz.html#ekvivalent_oxidu_uhli%C4%8Dit%C3%A9ho |
| Datum | 2010-01-27 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 22:13:58 |
| Název slovníku | Glossary from the AR4 Synthesis Report, bilingual English and Czech |
| Abstrakt | Glosář ze Čtvrté hodnotící zprávy, dílu Souhrnná zpráva |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 22:13:58 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 22:24:48 |
| Typ | Rukopis |
|---|---|
| Autor | (vysvětlivka) |
| Datum | 2020-10-30 |
| Datum přidání | 30. 11. 2020 21:05:25 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:29:14 |
| Typ | Rukopis |
|---|---|
| Autor | (vysvětlivka) |
| Datum přidání | 30. 11. 2020 21:30:57 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:30:57 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Jonathan Amos |
| URL | https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47806440 |
| Publikace | BBC News |
| Datum | 2019-04-03 |
| Sekce | Science & Environment |
| Přístup | 24. 11. 2020 12:28:34 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.bbc.com |
| Jazyk | en-GB |
| Abstrakt | Scientists call for more research into the last time when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were the same as today. |
| Krátký název | Climate change |
| Datum přidání | 24. 11. 2020 12:28:34 |
| Upraveno | 24. 11. 2020 12:30:46 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Kevin Anderson |
| Autor | Glen Peters |
| URL | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182 |
| Práva | Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science |
| Ročník | 354 |
| Číslo | 6309 |
| Rozsah | 182-183 |
| Publikace | Science |
| ISSN | 0036-8075, 1095-9203 |
| Datum | 2016/10/14 |
| Extra | Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Section: Perspective PMID: 27738161 |
| DOI | 10.1126/science.aah4567 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 10:26:57 |
| Katalog knihovny | science.sciencemag.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of “negative emissions,” the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through technical means. The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies. If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway. Reliance on negative-emission concepts locks in humankind's carbon addiction Reliance on negative-emission concepts locks in humankind's carbon addiction |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 10:26:57 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 10:26:57 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Catherine Beltran |
| Autor | Nicholas R. Golledge |
| Autor | Christian Ohneiser |
| Autor | Douglas E. Kowalewski |
| Autor | Marie-Alexandrine Sicre |
| Autor | Kimberly J. Hageman |
| Autor | Robert Smith |
| Autor | Gary S. Wilson |
| Autor | François Mainié |
| URL | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379119306122 |
| Ročník | 228 |
| Rozsah | 106069 |
| Publikace | Quaternary Science Reviews |
| ISSN | 0277-3791 |
| Datum | January 15, 2020 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Quaternary Science Reviews |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106069 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:38:52 |
| Katalog knihovny | ScienceDirect |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Over the last 5 million years, the Earth’s climate has oscillated between warm (interglacial) and cold (glacial) states. Some particularly warm interglacial periods (i.e. ‘super-interglacials’) occurred under low atmospheric CO2 and may have featured extensive Antarctic ice sheet collapse. Here we focus on an extreme super-interglacial known as Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS31), between 1.085 and 1.055 million years ago and is the subject of intense discussion. We reconstructed the first Southern Ocean and Antarctic margin sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from organic biomarkers and used them to constrain numerical ice sheet-shelf simulations. Our SSTs indicate that the ocean was on average 5 °C (±1.2 °C) warmer in summer than today between 50 °S and the Antarctic ice margin. Our most conservative ice sheet simulation indicates a complete collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with additional deflation of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We suggest the WAIS retreated because of anomalously high Southern Hemisphere insolation coupled with the intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf under poleward-intensified winds leading to a shorter sea ice season and ocean warming at the continental margin. In this scenario, the extreme warming we observed likely reflects the extensively modified oceanic and hydrologic system following ice sheet collapse. Our work highlights the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to minor oceanic perturbations that could also be at play for future changes. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:38:53 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:38:53 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Bob Berwyn |
| URL | https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28092020/ocean-stratification-climate-change |
| Datum | 2020-09-28T16:51:54-04:00 |
| Přístup | 25. 11. 2020 19:58:49 |
| Jazyk | en-US |
| Abstrakt | Global warming is deepening blankets of warmer water that alter ocean currents, hinder absorption of carbon, intensify storms and disrupt biological cycles. |
| Název stránky | InsideClimate News |
| Datum přidání | 25. 11. 2020 19:58:49 |
| Upraveno | 25. 11. 2020 20:00:05 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Miranda Boettcher |
| Autor | Stefan Schäfer |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016EF000521 |
| Práva | © 2017 The Authors. |
| Ročník | 5 |
| Číslo | 3 |
| Rozsah | 266-277 |
| Publikace | Earth's Future |
| ISSN | 2328-4277 |
| Datum | 2017 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016EF000521 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000521 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 10:55:53 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wiley Online Library |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Ten years ago, Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen called for research into the possibility of reflecting sunlight away from Earth by injecting sulfur particles into the stratosphere. Across academic disciplines, Crutzen's intervention caused a surge in interest in and research on proposals for what is often referred to as “geoengineering”—an unbounded set of heterogeneous proposals for intentionally intervening into the climate system to reduce the risks of climate change. To mark the 10-year anniversary of the publication of Paul Crutzen's seminal essay, this special issue reviews the developments in geoengineering research since Crutzen's intervention and reflects upon possible future directions that geoengineering research may take. In this introduction, we briefly outline the arguments made in Paul Crutzen's (2006) contribution and describe the key developments of the past 10 years. We then proceed to give an overview of some of the central issues in current discussions on geoengineering, and situate the contributions to this special issue within them. In particular, we contend that geoengineering research is characterized by an orientation toward speculative futures that fundamentally shapes how geoengineering is entering the collective imagination of scientists, policymakers, and publics, and a mode of knowledge production that recognizes the risks that may result from new knowledge and that struggles with its own socio-political dimensions. |
| Krátký název | Reflecting upon 10 years of geoengineering research |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 10:55:53 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 10:55:53 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Patrick T. Brown |
| Autor | Ken Caldeira |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24672 |
| Práva | 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. |
| Ročník | 552 |
| Číslo | 7683 |
| Rozsah | 45-50 |
| Publikace | Nature |
| ISSN | 1476-4687 |
| Datum | 2017-12 |
| Extra | Number: 7683 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/nature24672 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 20:14:32 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 20:14:32 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 20:14:32 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | K. D. Burke |
| Autor | J. W. Williams |
| Autor | M. A. Chandler |
| Autor | A. M. Haywood |
| Autor | D. J. Lunt |
| Autor | B. L. Otto-Bliesner |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/content/115/52/13288 |
| Práva | © 2018 . https://www.pnas.org/site/aboutpnas/licenses.xhtmlPublished under the PNAS license. |
| Ročník | 115 |
| Číslo | 52 |
| Rozsah | 13288-13293 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| ISSN | 0027-8424, 1091-6490 |
| Datum | 2018/12/26 |
| Extra | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Section: Biological Sciences PMID: 30530685 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | PNAS |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1809600115 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 23:17:21 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.pnas.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 23:17:21 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 23:17:21 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Ken Caldeira |
| Autor | Govindasamy Bala |
| Autor | Long Cao |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105548 |
| Ročník | 41 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Rozsah | 231-256 |
| Publikace | Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| Datum | 2013 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105548 |
| DOI | 10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105548 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 10:18:30 |
| Katalog knihovny | Annual Reviews |
| Abstrakt | Carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas are increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. These increased concentrations cause additional energy to be retained in Earth's climate system, thus increasing Earth's temperature. Various methods have been proposed to prevent this temperature increase either by reflecting to space sunlight that would otherwise warm Earth or by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Such intentional alteration of planetary-scale processes has been termed geoengineering. The first category of geoengineering method, solar geoengineering (also known as solar radiation management, or SRM), raises novel global-scale governance and environmental issues. Some SRM approaches are thought to be low in cost, so the scale of SRM deployment will likely depend primarily on considerations of risk. The second category of geoengineering method, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), raises issues related primarily to scale, cost, effectiveness, and local environmental consequences. The scale of CDR deployment will likely depend primarily on cost. |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 10:18:30 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 10:18:30 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Damian Carrington |
| URL | http://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change |
| Publikace | the Guardian |
| Datum | 2019-04-03T16:22:57.000Z |
| Extra | Section: Science |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 23:33:39 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Pliocene beech fossils in Antarctica when CO2 was at similar level to today point to planet’s future |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 23:33:39 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 23:35:58 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Gerardo Ceballos |
| Autor | Paul R. Ehrlich |
| Autor | Anthony D. Barnosky |
| Autor | Andrés García |
| Autor | Robert M. Pringle |
| Autor | Todd M. Palmer |
| URL | https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253 |
| Práva | Copyright © 2015, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Ročník | 1 |
| Číslo | 5 |
| Rozsah | e1400253 |
| Publikace | Science Advances |
| ISSN | 2375-2548 |
| Datum | 2015/06/01 |
| Extra | Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Section: Research Article |
| DOI | 10.1126/sciadv.1400253 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 0:02:05 |
| Katalog knihovny | advances.sciencemag.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing between the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 100 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years. Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years. |
| Krátký název | Accelerated modern human–induced species losses |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 0:02:05 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 0:02:05 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Annette Cowie |
| Autor | Han Weng |
| Autor | Lukas Van Zwieten |
| Autor | Stephen Joseph |
| Autor | Wolfram Buss |
| URL | http://theconversation.com/the-morrison-government-wants-to-suck-co-out-of-the-atmosphere-here-are-7-ways-to-do-it-144941 |
| Datum | 2020-09-21 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 10:23:49 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Energy Minister Angus Taylor is this week expected to release the government's first Low Emissions Technology Statement. It's likely to include ways to remove CO₂ from the air – but do they work? |
| Název stránky | The Conversation |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 10:23:49 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 21:50:31 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Ian Dunlop |
| Autor | David Spratt |
| URL | https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6992851/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-leadership-or-climate-colonialism/ |
| Místo | Canberra |
| Datum | 2020-11-02 |
| Přístup | 24. 11. 2020 20:56:45 |
| Datum přidání | 24. 11. 2020 20:56:45 |
| Upraveno | 24. 11. 2020 20:59:25 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | GISTEMP Team |
| URL | https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ |
| Datum | 2020-11 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 11:15:36 |
| Abstrakt | The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis ver. 4 (GISTEMP v4) is an estimate of global surface temperature change. Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using current data files from NOAA GHCN v4 (meteorological stations) and ERSST v5 (ocean areas), combined as described in our publications Hansen et al. (2010) and Lenssen et al. (2019). These updated files incorporate reports for the previous month and also late reports and corrections for earlier months. |
| Název stránky | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 11:15:36 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 11:21:16 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Antonio Guterres |
| URL | https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2019-06-30/secretary-generals-remarks-climate-summit-preparatory-meeting |
| Datum | 2019-06-30T03:47:12-04:00 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 11:24:15 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Your Highness, excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, I am very pleased to join you today. I want to thank the leadership and people of the United Arab Emirates for hosting this important meeting, with the wonderful hospitality, and at the same time, I want to urge all participants to seize this opportunity to take bold climate action. We are here because the world is facing a grave climate emergency. Climate disruption is happening now, and it is happening to all of us. It is progressing even faster than the world’s top scientists have predicted. It is outpacing our efforts to address it. |
| Název stránky | United Nations Secretary-General |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 11:24:15 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 11:29:52 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Tomohiro Hajima |
| Autor | Akitomo Yamamoto |
| Autor | Michio Kawamiya |
| Autor | Xuanming Su |
| Autor | Michio Watanabe |
| Autor | Rumi Ohgaito |
| Autor | Hiroaki Tatebe |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00350-2 |
| Ročník | 7 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Rozsah | 40 |
| Publikace | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| ISSN | 2197-4284 |
| Datum | August 24, 2020 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40645-020-00350-2 |
| Přístup | 30. 11. 2020 15:10:09 |
| Katalog knihovny | BioMed Central |
| Abstrakt | Earth system models (ESMs) are commonly used for simulating the climate–carbon (C) cycle and for projecting future global warming. While ESMs are most often applied to century-long climate simulations, millennium-long simulations, which have been conducted by other types of models but not by ESM because of the computational cost, can provide basic fundamental properties of climate–C cycle models and will be required for estimating the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and subsequent climate stabilization in the future. This study used two ESMs (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, the Earth system model version (MIROC-ESM) and the MIROC Earth system version 2 for long-term simulation (MIROC-ES2L)) to investigate millennium-scale climate and C cycle adjustment to external forcing. The CO2 concentration was doubled abruptly at the beginning of the model simulations and kept at that level for the next 1000 or 2000 years; these model simulations were compared with transient simulations where the CO2 was increased at the rate of 1% year−1 for up to 140 years (1pctCO2). Model simulations to separate and evaluate the C cycle feedbacks were also performed. Unlike the 1pctCO2 experiment, the change in temperature–cumulative anthropogenic C emission (∆T–CE) relationship was non-linear over the millennium time-scales; there were differences in this nonlinearity between the two ESMs. The differences in ∆T–CE among existing models suggest large uncertainty in the ∆T and CE in the millennium-long climate-C simulations. Ocean C and heat transport were found to be disconnected over millennium time-scales, leading to longer time-scale of ocean C accumulation than heat uptake. Although the experimental design used here was highly idealized, this long-lasting C uptake by the ocean should be considered as part of the stabilization of CO2 concentration and global warming. Future studies should perform millennium time-scale simulations using a hierarchy of models to clarify climate-C cycle processes and to understand the long-term response of the Earth system to anthropogenic perturbations. |
| Datum přidání | 30. 11. 2020 15:10:10 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 15:10:10 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | James Hansen |
| Autor | Pushker Kharecha |
| Autor | Makiko Sato |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1088%2F1748-9326%2F8%2F1%2F011006 |
| Ročník | 8 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Rozsah | 011006 |
| Publikace | Environmental Research Letters |
| ISSN | 1748-9326 |
| Datum | March 2013 |
| Extra | Publisher: IOP Publishing |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Environ. Res. Lett. |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 21:04:24 |
| Katalog knihovny | Institute of Physics |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Rahmstorf et al ’s (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) ‘Marker’ scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average 2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO2 amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global). Interannual variability of CO2 growth is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variations of tropical temperatures (figure 2). Ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange is affected by ENSO (Chavez et al 1999), but ENSO seems to have a greater impact on atmospheric CO2 via the terrestrial carbon cycle through effects on the water cycle, temperature, and fire, as discussed in a large body of literature (referenced, e.g., by Schwalm et al 2011). In addition, volcanoes, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, slow the increase of atmospheric CO2 (Rothenberg et al 2012), at least in part because photosynthesis is enhanced by the increased proportion of diffuse sunlight (Gu et al 2003, Mercado et al 2009). Watson (1997) suggests that volcanic dust deposited on the ocean surface may also contribute to CO2 uptake by increasing ocean productivity. An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéréet al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake. An informative presentation of CO2 observations is the ratio of annual CO2 increase in the air divided by annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions (Keeling et al 1973), the ‘airborne fraction’ (figure 3, right scale). An alternative definition of airborne fraction includes in the denominator of this ratio an estimated net anthropogenic CO2 source from changes in land use, but this latter term is much more uncertain than the two terms involved in the Keeling et al (1973) definition. For example, analysis by Harris et al (2012) reveals a range as high as a factor of 2–4 in estimates of recent land use emissions; see also the discussion by Sarmiento et al (2010). However, note that the airborne fraction becomes smaller when estimated land use emissions are included, with the uptake fraction (one minus airborne fraction) typically greater than 0.5. Figure 3. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions (left scale) and airborne fraction, i.e., the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2 increase to fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Final three points are 5-, 3- and 1-year means. The simple Keeling airborne fraction, clearly, is not increasing (figure 3). Thus the net ocean plus terrestrial sink for carbon emissions has increased by a factor of 3–4 since 1958, accommodating the emissions increase by that factor. Remarkably, and we will argue importantly, the airborne fraction has declined since 2000 (figure 3) during a period without any large volcanic eruptions. The 7-year running mean of the airborne fraction had remained close to 60% up to 2000, except for the period affected by Pinatubo. The airborne fraction is affected by factors other than the efficiency of carbon sinks, most notably by changes in the rate of fossil fuel emissions (Gloor et al 2010). However, it is the dependence of the airborne fraction on fossil fuel emission rate that makes the post-2000 downturn of the airborne fraction particularly striking. The change of emission rate in 2000 from 1.5% yr-1 to 3.1% yr-1 (figure 1), other things being equal, would have caused a sharp increase of the airborne fraction (the simple reason being that a rapid source increase provides less time for carbon to be moved downward out of the ocean’s upper layers). A decrease in land use emissions during the past decade (Harris et al 2012) could contribute to the decreasing airborne fraction in figure 3, although Malhi (2010) presents evidence that tropical forest deforestation and regrowth are approximately in balance, within uncertainties. Land use change can be only a partial explanation for the decrease of the airborne fraction; something more than land use change seems to be occurring. We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1). Increased coal use occurred primarily in China and India (Boden et al 2012; BP 2012; see graphs at www.columbia.edu/ mhs119/Emissions/Emis_moreFigs/). Satellite radiance measurements for July–December, months when desert dust does not dominate aerosol amount, yield an increase of aerosol optical depth in East Asia of about 4% yr-1 during 2000–2006 (van Donkelaar et al 2008). Associated gaseous and particulate emissions increased rapidly after 2000 in China and India (Lu et al 2011, Tian et al 2010). Some decrease of the sulfur component of emissions occurred in China after 2006 as wide application of flue-gas desulfurization began to be initiated (Lu et al 2010), but this was largely offset by continuing emission increases from India (Lu et al 2011). We suggest that the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal, since 2000 is a basic cause of the large increase of carbon uptake by the combined terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks. One mechanism by which fossil fuel emissions increase carbon uptake is by fertilizing the biosphere via provision of nutrients essential for tissue building, especially nitrogen, which plays a critical role in controlling net primary productivity and is limited in many ecosystems (Gruber and Galloway 2008). Modeling (e.g., Thornton et al 2009) and field studies (Magnani et al 2007) confirm a major role of nitrogen deposition, working in concert with CO2 fertilization, in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced. Thus we see the decreased CO2 airborne fraction since 2000 as sharing some of the same causes as the decreased airborne fraction after the Pinatubo eruption (figure 3). CO2 fertilization is likely the major effect, as a plausible addition of 5 TgN yr-1 from fossil fuels and net ecosystem productivity of 200 kgC kgN-1 (Magnani et al 2007, 2008) yields an annual carbon drawdown of 1 GtC yr-1, which is of the order of what is needed to explain the post-2000 anomaly in airborne CO2. However, an aerosol-induced increase of diffuse radiation might also contribute. Although tropospheric aerosol properties are not accurately monitored, there are suggestions of an upward trend of stratospheric background aerosols since 2000 (Hofmann et al 2009, Solomon et al 2011), which could be a consequence of more tropospheric aerosols at low latitudes where injection of tropospheric air into the stratosphere occurs (Holton et al 1995). We discuss climate implications of the reduced CO2 airborne fraction after presenting data for other greenhouse gases. Atmospheric CH4 is increasing more slowly than in IPCC scenarios (figure 4), which were defined more than a decade ago (IPCC 2001). However, after remaining nearly constant for several years, CH4 has increased during the past five years, pushing slightly above the level that was envisaged in the Alternative Scenario of Hansen et al (2000). Reduction of CH4, besides slowdown in CO2 growth in the twenty first century and a decline of CO2 in the twenty second century, is a principal requirement to achieve a low climate forcing that stabilizes climate, in part because CH4 also affects tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor. The Alternative Scenario, defined in detail by Hansen and Sato (2004), keeps maximum global warming at 1.5 °C relative to 1880–1920, under the assumption that fast-feedback climate sensitivity is 3 °C for doubled CO2 (Hansen et al 2007). The Alternative Scenario allows CO2 to reach 475 ppm in 2100 before declining slowly; this scenario assumes that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols can be achieved sufficient to balance the warming effect of likely future decreases of reflective aerosols. Figure 4. Observed atmospheric CH4 amount and scenarios for twenty first century. Alternative scenario (Hansen et al 2000, Hansen and Sato 2004) yields maximum global warming 1.5 °C above 1880–1920. Other scenarios are from IPCC (2001). Forcing on right hand scale is adjusted forcing, Fa, relative to values in 2000 (Hansen et al 2007). There are anthropogenic sources of CH4 that potentially could be reduced, indeed, the leveling off of CH4 amount during the past 20 years seems to have been caused by decreased venting in oil fields (Simpson et al 2012), but the feasibility of overall CH4 reduction also depends on limiting global warming itself, because of the potential for amplifying climate-CH4 feedbacks (Archer et al 2009, Koven et al 2011). Furthermore, reduction of atmospheric CH4 might become problematic if unconventional mining of gas, such as ‘hydro-fracking’, expands widely (Cipolla 2009), as discussed further below. The growth rate for the total climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases has remained below the peak values reached in the 1970s and early 1980s, has been relatively stable for about 20 years, and is falling below IPCC (2001) scenarios (figure 5). However, the greenhouse gas forcing is growing faster than in the Alternative Scenario. MPTGs and OTGs in figure 5 are Montreal Protocol Trace Gases and Other Trace Gases (Hansen and Sato 2004). Figure 5. Five-year mean of the growth rate of climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases, an update of figure 4 of Hansen and Sato (2004). Forcing calculations use equations of Hansen et al (2000). The moderate uncertainties in radiative calculations affect the scenarios and actual greenhouse gas results equally and thus do not alter the conclusion that the actual forcing falls below that of the IPCC scenarios. If greenhouse gases were the only climate forcing, we would be tempted to infer from Rahmstorf’s conclusion (that actual climate change has exceeded IPCC projections) and our conclusion (that actual greenhouse gas forcings are slightly smaller than IPCC scenarios) that actual climate sensitivity is on the high side of what has generally been assumed. Although that may be a valid inference, the evidence is weakened by the fact that other climate forcings are not negligible in comparison to the greenhouse gases and must be accounted for. Natural forcings, by changing solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols, are well-measured since the late 1970s and included in most IPCC (2007) climate simulations. The difficulty is human-made aerosols. Aerosols are readily detected in satellite observations, but determination of their climate forcing requires accurate knowledge of changes in aerosol amount, size distribution, absorption and vertical distribution on a global basis—as well as simultaneous data on changes in cloud properties to allow inference of the indirect aerosol forcing via induced cloud changes. Unfortunately, the first satellite mission capable of measuring the needed aerosol characteristics (Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor on the Glory satellite, (Mishchenko et al 2007)) suffered a launch failure and as yet there are no concrete plans for a replacement mission. The human-made aerosol climate forcing thus remains uncertain. IPCC (2007) concludes that aerosols are a negative (cooling) forcing, probably between -0.5 and -2.5 W m-2. Hansen et al (2011), based mainly on analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance, derive an aerosol forcing -1.6 ± 0.3 W m-2, consistent with an analysis of Murphy et al (2009) that suggests an aerosol forcing about -1.5 W m-2 (see discussion in Hansen et al (2011)). This large negative aerosol forcing reduces the net climate forcing of the past century by about half (IPCC 2007; figure 1 of Hansen et al 2011). Coincidentally, this leaves net climate forcing comparable to the CO2 forcing alone. Reduction of the net human-made climate forcing by aerosols has been described as a ‘Faustian bargain’ (Hansen and Lacis 1990, Hansen 2009), because the aerosols constitute deleterious particulate air pollution. Reduction of the net climate forcing by half will continue only if we allow air pollution to build up to greater and greater amounts. More likely, humanity will demand and achieve a reduction of particulate air pollution, whereupon, because the CO2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the surface climate system for millennia, the ‘devil’s payment’ will be extracted from humanity via increased global warming. So is the new data we present here good news or bad news, and how does it alter the ‘Faustian bargain’? At first glance there seems to be some good news. First, if our interpretation of the data is correct, the surge of fossil fuel emissions, especially from coal burning, along with the increasing atmospheric CO2 level is ‘fertilizing’ the biosphere, and thus limiting the growth of atmospheric CO2. Also, despite the absence of accurate global aerosol measurements, it seems that the aerosol cooling effect is probably increasing based on evidence of aerosol increases in the Far East and increasing ‘background’ stratospheric aerosols. Both effects work to limit global warming and thus help explain why the rate of global warming seems to be less this decade than it has been during the prior quarter century. This data interpretation also helps explain why multiple warnings that some carbon sinks are ‘drying up’ and could even become carbon sources, e.g., boreal forests infested by pine bark beetles (Kurz et al 2008) and the Amazon rain forest suffering from drought (Lewis et al 2011), have not produced an obvious impact on atmospheric CO2. However, increased CO2 uptake does not necessarily mean that the biosphere is healthier or that the increased carbon uptake will continue indefinitely (Matson et al 2002, Galloway et al 2002, Heimann and Reichstein 2008, Gruber and Galloway 2008). Nor does it change the basic facts about the potential magnitude of the fossil fuel carbon source (figure 6) and the long lifetime of the CO2 in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, soil, biosphere) once the fossil fuels are burned (Archer 2005). Fertilization of the biosphere affects the distribution of the fossil fuel carbon among these reservoirs, at least on the short run, but it does not alter the fact that the fossil carbon will remain in these reservoirs for millennia. Figure 6. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions and carbon content (1 ppm atmospheric CO2 2.12 GtC). Historical emissions are from Boden et al (2012). Estimated reserves and potentially recoverable resources are based on energy content values of Energy Information Administration (EIA 2011), German Advisory Council (GAC 2011), and Global Energy Assessment (GEA 2012). We convert energy content to carbon content using emission factors of Table 4.2 of IPCC (2007) for coal, gas, and conventional oil, and, following IPCC, we use an emission factor of unconventional oil the same as that for coal. Humanity, so far, has burned only a small portion (purple area in figure 6) of total fossil fuel reserves and resources. Yet deleterious effects of warming are apparent (IPCC 2007), even though only about half of the warming due to gases now in the air has appeared, the remainder still ‘in the pipeline’ due to the inertia of the climate system (Hansen et al 2011). Already it seems difficult to avoid passing the ‘guardrail’ of no more than 2 °C global warming that was agreed in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 2010). And Hansen et al (2008), based primarily on paleoclimate data and evidence of deleterious climate impacts already at 385 ppm CO2, concluded that an appropriate initial target for CO2 was 350 ppm, which implied a global temperature limit, relative to 1880–1920 of about 1 °C. What is clear is that most of the remaining fossil fuels must be left in the ground if we are to avoid dangerous human-made interference with climate. The principal implication of our present analysis probably relates to the Faustian bargain. Increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a ‘doubling down’ of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes. The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be. Yet globally there are plans to build more than 1000 coal-fired power plants (Yang and Cui 2012) and plans to develop some of the dirtiest oil sources on the planet (EIA 2011). These plans should be vigorously resisted. We are already in a deep hole—it is time to stop digging. Acknowledgments We thank ClimateWorks, Energy Foundation, Gerry Lenfest (Lenfest Foundation), Lee Wasserman (Rockefeller Family Foundation), and Stephen Toben (Flora Family Foundation) for research and communications support. References Archer D 2005 Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time J. Geophys. Res. 110 C09505 Archer D, Buffett B and Brovkin V 2009 Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle Proc. Natl Acad. 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| Krátký název | Climate forcing growth rates |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 21:04:24 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 21:04:24 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | James Hansen |
| Autor | Makiko Sato |
| Autor | Pushker Kharecha |
| Autor | David Beerling |
| Autor | Robert Berner |
| Autor | Valerie Masson-Delmotte |
| Autor | Mark Pagani |
| Autor | Maureen Raymo |
| Autor | Dana L. Royer |
| Autor | James C. Zachos |
| URL | https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/2/PAGE/217/FULLTEXT/ |
| Ročník | 2 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Publikace | The Open Atmospheric Science Journal |
| Datum | 2008/10/31 |
| DOI | 10.2174/1874282300802010217 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 18:56:36 |
| Katalog knihovny | openatmosphericsciencejournal.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Target Atmospheric CO: Where Should Humanity Aim? |
| Krátký název | Target Atmospheric CO |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 18:56:36 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 18:56:36 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | James Hansen |
| Autor | Makiko Sato |
| Autor | Pushker Kharecha |
| Autor | Gary Russell |
| Autor | David W Lea |
| Autor | Mark Siddall |
| URL | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052 |
| Ročník | 365 |
| Číslo | 1856 |
| Rozsah | 1925-1954 |
| Publikace | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
| Datum | July 15, 2007 |
| Extra | Publisher: Royal Society |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
| DOI | 10.1098/rsta.2007.2052 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:39:35 |
| Katalog knihovny | royalsocietypublishing.org (Atypon) |
| Abstrakt | Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the ‘albedo flip’ property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that ‘flips’ the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon (‘black soot’) has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:39:35 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:39:35 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Fiona Harvey |
| URL | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/05/amazon-near-tipping-point-of-switching-from-rainforest-to-savannah-study |
| Publikace | The Guardian |
| ISSN | 0261-3077 |
| Datum | 2020-10-05T09:00:16.000Z |
| Sekce | Environment |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:00:54 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.theguardian.com |
| Jazyk | en-GB |
| Abstrakt | Climate crisis and logging is leading to shift from canopy rainforest to open grassland |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:00:54 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:01:36 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Daniela Jacob |
| Autor | Lola Kotova |
| Autor | Claas Teichmann |
| Autor | Stefan P. Sobolowski |
| Autor | Robert Vautard |
| Autor | Chantal Donnelly |
| Autor | Aristeidis G. Koutroulis |
| Autor | Manolis G. Grillakis |
| Autor | Ioannis K. Tsanis |
| Autor | Andrea Damm |
| Autor | Abdulla Sakalli |
| Autor | Michelle T. H. van Vliet |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000710 |
| Ročník | 6 |
| Číslo | 2 |
| Rozsah | 264-285 |
| Publikace | Earth's Future |
| ISSN | 2328-4277 |
| Datum | February 1, 2018 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Earth's Future |
| DOI | 10.1002/2017EF000710 |
| Přístup | 29. 1. 2020 10:39:05 |
| Katalog knihovny | agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com (Atypon) |
| Abstrakt | Abstract The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability. |
| Datum přidání | 29. 1. 2020 10:39:06 |
| Upraveno | 29. 1. 2020 10:39:06 |
| Typ | Video nahrávka |
|---|---|
| Režisér | Jane Morton |
| Člen obsazení | David Spratt |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJmPpMI0smE |
| Datum | 2020-11-23 |
| Přístup | 24. 11. 2020 21:34:54 |
| Katalog knihovny | YouTube |
| Čas | 21:25 |
| Abstrakt | David Spratt Research Director for the Breakthrough Institute for Climate Restoration provides an update on the science of the climate emergency. This was a presentation to the Victorian Climate Action Network in November 2020. |
| Datum přidání | 24. 11. 2020 21:34:55 |
| Upraveno | 24. 11. 2020 22:08:44 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Eystein Jansen |
| Autor | Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen |
| Autor | Trond Dokken |
| Autor | Kerim H. Nisancioglu |
| Autor | Bo M. Vinther |
| Autor | Emilie Capron |
| Autor | Chuncheng Guo |
| Autor | Mari F. Jensen |
| Autor | Peter L. Langen |
| Autor | Rasmus A. Pedersen |
| Autor | Shuting Yang |
| Autor | Mats Bentsen |
| Autor | Helle A. Kjær |
| Autor | Henrik Sadatzki |
| Autor | Evangeline Sessford |
| Autor | Martin Stendel |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7 |
| Práva | 2020 Springer Nature Limited |
| Ročník | 10 |
| Číslo | 8 |
| Rozsah | 714-721 |
| Publikace | Nature Climate Change |
| ISSN | 1758-6798 |
| Datum | 2020-08 |
| Extra | Number: 8 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-0860-7 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:44:47 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming. This Perspective uses observations and climate models to place contemporary Arctic change into the context of past abrupt Greenland warmings. We find that warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:44:47 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:44:47 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Andrew D. King |
| Autor | David J. Karoly |
| Autor | Benjamin J. Henley |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3296 |
| Práva | 2017 Nature Publishing Group |
| Ročník | 7 |
| Číslo | 6 |
| Rozsah | 412-416 |
| Publikace | Nature Climate Change |
| ISSN | 1758-6798 |
| Datum | 2017-06 |
| Extra | Number: 6 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/nclimate3296 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:31:27 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25% in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:31:27 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:31:27 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Michalea D. King |
| Autor | Ian M. Howat |
| Autor | Salvatore G. Candela |
| Autor | Myoung J. Noh |
| Autor | Seongsu Jeong |
| Autor | Brice P. Y. Noël |
| Autor | Michiel R. van den Broeke |
| Autor | Bert Wouters |
| Autor | Adelaide Negrete |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2 |
| Práva | 2020 The Author(s) |
| Ročník | 1 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Rozsah | 1-7 |
| Publikace | Communications Earth & Environment |
| ISSN | 2662-4435 |
| Datum | 2020-08-13 |
| Extra | Number: 1 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:56:16 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at accelerated rates in the 21st century, making it the largest single contributor to rising sea levels. Faster flow of outlet glaciers has substantially contributed to this loss, with the cause of speedup, and potential for future change, uncertain. Here we combine more than three decades of remotely sensed observational products of outlet glacier velocity, elevation, and front position changes over the full ice sheet. We compare decadal variability in discharge and calving front position and find that increased glacier discharge was due almost entirely to the retreat of glacier fronts, rather than inland ice sheet processes, with a remarkably consistent speedup of 4–5% per km of retreat across the ice sheet. We show that widespread retreat between 2000 and 2005 resulted in a step-increase in discharge and a switch to a new dynamic state of sustained mass loss that would persist even under a decline in surface melt. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:56:16 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:56:16 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Rik Leemans |
| Autor | Bas Eickhout |
| URL | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000391 |
| Série | The Benefits of Climate Policy |
| Ročník | 14 |
| Číslo | 3 |
| Rozsah | 219-228 |
| Publikace | Global Environmental Change |
| ISSN | 0959-3780 |
| Datum | October 1, 2004 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Global Environmental Change |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.009 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 0:04:54 |
| Katalog knihovny | ScienceDirect |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | This study assesses the impacts of climate change on species, ecosystems and landscapes over a range of increasing global mean temperatures and the corresponding temperature and precipitation patterns. Results from IMAGE, a so-called integrated assessment model, are used to link different ecological impacts to different levels of climate change. The analysis shows that, although there are large regional differences, even small increases in global mean temperatures will considerably impact many species, ecosystems and landscapes. Between 1°C and 2°C increases in global mean temperatures most species, ecosystems and landscapes will be impacted and adaptive capacity will become limited. With the already ongoing high rate of climate change, the decline in biodiversity will therefore accelerate and simultaneously many ecosystem services will become less abundant. |
| Krátký název | Another reason for concern |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 0:04:54 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 0:04:54 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Nathan J. L. Lenssen |
| Autor | Gavin A. Schmidt |
| Autor | James E. Hansen |
| Autor | Matthew J. Menne |
| Autor | Avraham Persin |
| Autor | Reto Ruedy |
| Autor | Daniel Zyss |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029522 |
| Práva | ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| Ročník | 124 |
| Číslo | 12 |
| Rozsah | 6307-6326 |
| Publikace | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
| ISSN | 2169-8996 |
| Datum | 2019 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018JD029522 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029522 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 11:26:19 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wiley Online Library |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys, and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state-of-the-art reanalyses, and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization, and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05 °C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15 °C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date) and conclude with 87% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far). |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 11:26:19 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 11:26:19 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Timothy M. Lenton |
| Autor | Johan Rockström |
| Autor | Owen Gaffney |
| Autor | Stefan Rahmstorf |
| Autor | Katherine Richardson |
| Autor | Will Steffen |
| Autor | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0 |
| Práva | 2019 Nature |
| Ročník | 575 |
| Číslo | 7784 |
| Rozsah | 592-595 |
| Publikace | Nature |
| Datum | 2019-11 |
| DOI | 10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2019 12:50:40 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2019 12:50:40 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2019 12:50:40 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | T. M. Lenton |
| Autor | H. Held |
| Autor | W. Lucht |
| Autor | S. Rahmstorf |
| Autor | E. Kriegler |
| Autor | J. W. Hall |
| Autor | H. J. Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21021712 |
| Ročník | 105 |
| Číslo | 6 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| ISSN | 0027-8424 |
| Datum | 2008/02/12 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0705414105 |
| Přístup | 26. 11. 2020 17:34:08 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.osti.gov |
| Jazyk | English |
| Abstrakt | The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information |
| Datum přidání | 26. 11. 2020 17:34:08 |
| Upraveno | 26. 11. 2020 17:34:08 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Li et al. |
| URL | https://psu.app.box.com/s/2j7cynrci6xlkkoe70cnbqn04dpbr2bd |
| Datum | 2020-09-28 |
| Přístup | 25. 11. 2020 20:02:41 |
| Datum přidání | 25. 11. 2020 20:02:41 |
| Upraveno | 25. 11. 2020 20:42:02 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Guancheng Li |
| Autor | Lijing Cheng |
| Autor | Jiang Zhu |
| Autor | Kevin E. Trenberth |
| Autor | Michael E. Mann |
| Autor | John P. Abraham |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00918-2 |
| Práva | 2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited |
| Rozsah | 1-8 |
| Publikace | Nature Climate Change |
| ISSN | 1758-6798 |
| Datum | 2020-09-28 |
| Extra | Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2 |
| Přístup | 25. 11. 2020 20:10:03 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Seawater generally forms stratified layers with lighter waters near the surface and denser waters at greater depth. This stable configuration acts as a barrier to water mixing that impacts the efficiency of vertical exchanges of heat, carbon, oxygen and other constituents. Previous quantification of stratification change has been limited to simple differencing of surface and 200-m depth changes and has neglected the spatial complexity of ocean density change. Here, we quantify changes in ocean stratification down to depths of 2,000 m using the squared buoyancy frequency N2 and newly available ocean temperature/salinity observations. We find that stratification globally has increased by a substantial 5.3% [5.0%, 5.8%] in recent decades (1960–2018) (the confidence interval is 5–95%); a rate of 0.90% per decade. Most of the increase (~71%) occurred in the upper 200 m of the ocean and resulted largely (>90%) from temperature changes, although salinity changes play an important role locally. |
| Datum přidání | 25. 11. 2020 20:10:03 |
| Upraveno | 25. 11. 2020 20:10:03 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Thomas E. Lovejoy |
| Autor | Carlos Nobre |
| URL | https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaat2340 |
| Práva | Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Ročník | 4 |
| Číslo | 2 |
| Rozsah | eaat2340 |
| Publikace | Science Advances |
| ISSN | 2375-2548 |
| Datum | 2018/02/01 |
| DOI | 10.1126/sciadv.aat2340 |
| Přístup | 31. 8. 2019 14:31:35 |
| Katalog knihovny | advances.sciencemag.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Thomas E. Lovejoy Carlos Nobre In the 1970s, Brazilian scientist Eneas Salati shattered the long held dogma that vegetation is simply the consequence of climate and has no influence on climate whatsoever ( 1 ). Using isotopic ratios of oxygen in rainwater samples collected from the Atlantic to the Peruvian border, he was able to demonstrate unequivocally that the Amazon generates approximately half of its own rainfall by recycling moisture 5 to 6 times as airmasses move from the Atlantic across the basin to the west. From the start, the demonstration of the hydrological cycle of the Amazon raised the question of how much deforestation would be required to cause the cycle to degrade to the point of being unable to support rain forest ecosystems. High levels of evaporation and transpiration that forests produce throughout the year contribute to a wetter atmospheric boundary layer than would be the case with … |
| Datum přidání | 31. 8. 2019 14:31:35 |
| Upraveno | 31. 8. 2019 14:31:35 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Andrew H. MacDougall |
| Autor | Thomas L. Frölicher |
| Autor | Chris D. Jones |
| Autor | Joeri Rogelj |
| Autor | H. Damon Matthews |
| Autor | Kirsten Zickfeld |
| Autor | Vivek K. Arora |
| Autor | Noah J. Barrett |
| Autor | Victor Brovkin |
| Autor | Friedrich A. Burger |
| Autor | Micheal Eby |
| Autor | Alexey V. Eliseev |
| Autor | Tomohiro Hajima |
| Autor | Philip B. Holden |
| Autor | Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes |
| Autor | Charles Koven |
| Autor | Nadine Mengis |
| Autor | Laurie Menviel |
| Autor | Martine Michou |
| Autor | Igor I. Mokhov |
| Autor | Akira Oka |
| Autor | Jörg Schwinger |
| Autor | Roland Séférian |
| Autor | Gary Shaffer |
| Autor | Andrei Sokolov |
| Autor | Kaoru Tachiiri |
| Autor | Jerry Tjiputra |
| Autor | Andrew Wiltshire |
| Autor | Tilo Ziehn |
| URL | https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/ |
| Ročník | 17 |
| Číslo | 11 |
| Rozsah | 2987-3016 |
| Publikace | Biogeosciences |
| ISSN | 1726-4170 |
| Datum | 2020/06/15 |
| Extra | Publisher: Copernicus GmbH |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020 |
| Přístup | 14. 10. 2020 14:42:56 |
| Katalog knihovny | bg.copernicus.org |
| Jazyk | English |
| Abstrakt | <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is <span class="inline-formula">−0.36</span> to 0.29 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, with a model ensemble mean of <span class="inline-formula">−0.07</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, median of <span class="inline-formula">−0.05</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, and standard deviation of 0.19 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.</p> |
| Krátký název | Is there warming in the pipeline? |
| Datum přidání | 14. 10. 2020 14:42:56 |
| Upraveno | 14. 10. 2020 14:42:56 |
| Typ | Příspěvek v blogu |
|---|---|
| Autor | Michael Mann |
| URL | https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANkPLjAIrvPsFWBoGftJKsJXh2tHMGGj6v6U-LRaCAqLhsiz5g-TO4_l3jb-VSEy5vi60YIpRCwAi2RDhkcf7PhkdwbmypfVrO97Ah7RQCIFg8JTr8A-xZ69TAm11PVHZqMWFhCEvF6iZOLnR27fm1vq0nGgq-k1N78TlXAa1R0z |
| Datum | 2015-09-11 |
| Přístup | 26. 11. 2020 19:25:02 |
| Datum přidání | 26. 11. 2020 19:25:02 |
| Upraveno | 26. 11. 2020 19:37:01 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Erin L. McClymont |
| Autor | Heather L. Ford |
| Autor | Sze Ling Ho |
| Autor | Julia C. Tindall |
| Autor | Alan M. Haywood |
| Autor | Montserrat Alonso-Garcia |
| Autor | Ian Bailey |
| Autor | Melissa A. Berke |
| Autor | Kate Littler |
| Autor | Molly O. Patterson |
| Autor | Benjamin Petrick |
| Autor | Francien Peterse |
| Autor | A. Christina Ravelo |
| Autor | Bjørg Risebrobakken |
| Autor | Stijn De Schepper |
| Autor | George E. A. Swann |
| Autor | Kaustubh Thirumalai |
| Autor | Jessica E. Tierney |
| Autor | Carolien van der Weijst |
| Autor | Sarah White |
| Autor | Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
| Autor | Michiel L. J. Baatsen |
| Autor | Esther C. Brady |
| Autor | Wing-Le Chan |
| Autor | Deepak Chandan |
| Autor | Ran Feng |
| Autor | Chuncheng Guo |
| Autor | Anna S. von der Heydt |
| Autor | Stephen Hunter |
| Autor | Xiangyi Li |
| Autor | Gerrit Lohmann |
| Autor | Kerim H. Nisancioglu |
| Autor | Bette L. Otto-Bliesner |
| Autor | W. Richard Peltier |
| Autor | Christian Stepanek |
| Autor | Zhongshi Zhang |
| URL | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1599/2020/ |
| Ročník | 16 |
| Číslo | 4 |
| Rozsah | 1599-1615 |
| Publikace | Climate of the Past |
| ISSN | 1814-9324 |
| Datum | 2020/08/27 |
| Extra | Publisher: Copernicus GmbH |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 23:20:24 |
| Katalog knihovny | cp.copernicus.org |
| Jazyk | English |
| Abstrakt | <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. <span class="inline-formula">3.205±0.01</span> Ma) when atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by <span class="inline-formula">∼2.3</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera <span class="inline-formula">Mg∕Ca</span> and alkenones), or by <span class="inline-formula">∼3.2</span>–3.4 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-<span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.</p> |
| Krátký název | Lessons from a high-CO<sub>2</sub> world |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 23:20:24 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 23:20:24 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | M. Mengel |
| Autor | A. Levermann |
| URL | http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2226.html |
| Práva | © 2014 Nature Publishing Group |
| Ročník | advance online publication |
| Publikace | Nature Climate Change |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| Datum | May 4, 2014 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Nature Clim. Change |
| DOI | 10.1038/nclimate2226 |
| Přístup | 8. 5. 2014 9:29:34 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Changes in ice discharge from Antarctica constitute the largest uncertainty in future sea-level projections, mainly because of the unknown response of its marine basins. Most of West Antarctica’s marine ice sheet lies on an inland-sloping bed and is thereby prone to a marine ice sheet instability. A similar topographic configuration is found in large parts of East Antarctica, which holds marine ice equivalent to 19 m of global sea-level rise, that is, more than five times that of West Antarctica. Within East Antarctica, the Wilkes Basin holds the largest volume of marine ice that is fully connected by subglacial troughs. This ice body was significantly reduced during the Pliocene epoch. Strong melting underneath adjacent ice shelves with similar bathymetry indicates the ice sheet’s sensitivity to climatic perturbations. The stability of the Wilkes marine ice sheet has not been the subject of any comprehensive assessment of future sea level. Using recently improved topographic data in combination with ice-dynamic simulations, we show here that the removal of a specific coastal ice volume equivalent to less than 80 mm of global sea-level rise at the margin of the Wilkes Basin destabilizes the regional ice flow and leads to a self-sustained discharge of the entire basin and a global sea-level rise of 3–4 m. Our results are robust with respect to variation in ice parameters, forcing details and model resolution as well as increased surface mass balance, indicating that East Antarctica may become a large contributor to future sea-level rise on timescales beyond a century. |
| Datum přidání | 2. 6. 2019 15:26:24 |
| Upraveno | 2. 6. 2019 15:26:24 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Martin Uhlíř, Jiří Nádoba |
| Autor | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2019/16/klima-vstupujeme-do-temneho-veku |
| Přístup | 29. 4. 2019 21:17:10 |
| Abstrakt | Následující rozhovor z minulého vydání Respektu vyvolal velký ohlas a diskuze nejen mezi pravidelnými čtenáři týdeníku. Na četné žádosti ho proto… |
| Název stránky | Týdeník Respekt |
| Datum přidání | 29. 4. 2019 21:17:10 |
| Upraveno | 13. 7. 2020 18:24:28 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Gautam Naik |
| URL | https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-asia-mountain-range-has-lost-a-quarter-of-ice-mass-in-50-years-study-says-1439823730 |
| Publikace | Wall Street Journal |
| ISSN | 0099-9660 |
| Datum | 2015-08-17T15:02:00.000Z |
| Sekce | World |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:51:15 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.wsj.com |
| Jazyk | en-US |
| Abstrakt | The glaciers of the Tien Shan mountain range have lost a quarter of their ice mass over the past five decades, largely because of increased melting linked to a rise in summer temperatures, according to new research. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:51:15 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:51:15 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (UK) |
| URL | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090622103833.htm |
| Datum | 2009-07-07 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 23:01:22 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Scientists have reconstructed sea-level fluctuations over the last 520,000 years. Comparison of this record with data on global climate and CO2 levels from Antarctic ice cores suggests that even stabilization at today's carbon dioxide levels may commit us to much greater sea-level rise over the next couple of millennia than previously thought. |
| Název stránky | ScienceDaily |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 23:01:22 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 23:09:56 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Frederike Neuber |
| Autor | Konrad Ott |
| URL | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/10/13/4637 |
| Práva | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
| Ročník | 10 |
| Číslo | 13 |
| Rozsah | 4637 |
| Publikace | Applied Sciences |
| Datum | 2020-07-04 |
| Extra | Number: 13 Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
| DOI | 10.3390/app10134637 |
| Přístup | 30. 11. 2020 15:17:59 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.mdpi.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | In this article, we will establish a version of the buying time argument (BTA) in favor of Sulphur Aerosol Injection (SAI) Climate Engineering (CE). The idea is not to promote the deployment of such scheme, but rather to present the strongest possible argument pro SAI in order to look at its presuppositions, implications, critical points and uncertainties. In discussing BTA being the only morally sound argument in favor of SAI, the stakes and the overall framework will become visible. If, however, the strongest pro-SAI argument enables us to recognize some major flaws of this technology, this option should be disregarded. |
| Datum přidání | 30. 11. 2020 15:17:59 |
| Upraveno | 30. 11. 2020 15:42:40 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Kristina Pistone |
| Autor | Ian Eisenman |
| Autor | Veerabhadran Ramanathan |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com:443/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082914 |
| Práva | ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| Ročník | 46 |
| Číslo | 13 |
| Rozsah | 7474-7480 |
| Publikace | Geophysical Research Letters |
| ISSN | 1944-8007 |
| Datum | 2019 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019GL082914 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082914 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 20:35:38 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wiley Online Library |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top-of-atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future. This is relevant to future climate projections, including the timescale for reaching global warming stabilization targets. Here we use satellite observations to estimate the amount of solar energy that would be added in the worst-case scenario of a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice throughout the sunlit part of the year. Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 20:35:38 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 20:35:38 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
| URL | https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/ranking-the-climate-papers-most-featured-in-online-media |
| Datum | 2019-01-12 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:44:17 |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:44:17 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:50:12 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Nina Pullano |
| URL | https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19062019/spy-satellite-data-himalaya-glaciers-melting-climate-change-accelerating-columbia-study |
| Datum | 2019-06-20T05:49:00-04:00 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:48:41 |
| Jazyk | en-US |
| Abstrakt | Scientists used declassified military satellite data dating back to the Cold War to measure changes across the region and show the risks ahead for its communities. |
| Název stránky | InsideClimate News |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:48:41 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:49:47 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Graham Readfearn |
| URL | http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2018/oct/06/earths-climate-monsters-could-be-unleashed-as-temperatures-rise |
| Datum | 2018-10-05T22:07:46.000Z |
| Extra | Section: Environment |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:04:01 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | As a UN panel prepares a report on 1.5C global warming, researchers warn of the risks of ignoring ‘feedback’ effects |
| Název stránky | the Guardian |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:04:01 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:05:34 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Rhian L. Rees-Owen |
| Autor | Fiona L. Gill |
| Autor | Robert J. Newton |
| Autor | Ruza F. Ivanović |
| Autor | Jane E. Francis |
| Autor | James B. Riding |
| Autor | Christopher H. Vane |
| Autor | Raquel A. Lopes dos Santos |
| URL | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014663801730219X |
| Ročník | 118 |
| Rozsah | 4-14 |
| Publikace | Organic Geochemistry |
| ISSN | 0146-6380 |
| Datum | April 1, 2018 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Organic Geochemistry |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.orggeochem.2018.01.001 |
| Přístup | 24. 11. 2020 11:56:47 |
| Katalog knihovny | ScienceDirect |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Fossil-bearing deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica indicate that, despite the cold nature of the continent’s climate, a tundra ecosystem grew during periods of ice sheet retreat in the mid to late Neogene (17–2.5 Ma), 480 km from the South Pole. To date, palaeotemperature reconstruction has been based only on biological ranges, thereby calling for a geochemical approach to understanding continental climate and environment. There is contradictory evidence in the fossil record as to whether this flora was mixed angiosperm-conifer vegetation, or whether by this point conifers had disappeared from the continent. In order to address these questions, we have analysed, for the first time in sediments of this age, plant and bacterial biomarkers in terrestrial sediments from the Transantarctic Mountains to reconstruct past temperature and vegetation during a period of East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat. From tetraether lipids (MBT′/CBT palaeothermometer), we conclude that the mean continental summer temperature was ca. 5 °C, in agreement with previous reconstructions. This was warm enough to have allowed woody vegetation to survive and reproduce even during the austral winter. Biomarkers from vascular plants indicate a low diversity and spatially variable flora consisting of higher plants, moss and algal mats growing in microenvironments in a glacial outwash system. Abietane-type compounds were abundant in some samples, indicating that conifers, most likely Podocarpaceae, grew on the Antarctic continent well into the Neogene. This is supported by the palynological record, but not the macrofossil record for the continent, and has implications for the evolution of vegetation on Antarctica. |
| Krátký název | The last forests on Antarctica |
| Datum přidání | 24. 11. 2020 11:56:48 |
| Upraveno | 24. 11. 2020 11:56:48 |
| Typ | Webová stránka |
|---|---|
| Autor | Eric Rignot |
| URL | http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/climate-change-antarctica-glaciers-melting-global-warming-nasa |
| Datum | 2014-05-17T19:30:00.000Z |
| Extra | Section: Opinion |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 21:35:17 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Eric Rignot: Last week saw a 'holy shit' moment in climate change science. A landmark report revealed that the collapse of a large part of Antarctica is now unstoppable |
| Název stránky | the Guardian |
| Krátký název | Global warming |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 21:35:17 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 21:35:17 |
| Typ | Příspěvek v blogu |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Roberts |
| URL | https://grist.org/climate-change/2011-12-05-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change/ |
| Datum | 2011-12-06T03:13:10+00:00 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:29:23 |
| Jazyk | en-US |
| Abstrakt | The consensus in American politics today is that there’s nothing to be gained from talking about climate change. It’s divisive, the electorate has more pressing concerns, and very little can be accomplished anyway. In response to this evolving consensus, lots … |
| Název blogu | Grist |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:29:23 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:31:38 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Alexander Robinson |
| Autor | Reinhard Calov |
| Autor | Andrey Ganopolski |
| URL | http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1449.html |
| Práva | © 2012 Nature Publishing Group |
| Publikace | Nature Climate Change |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| Datum | 2012-03-11 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nclimate1449 |
| Přístup | 13. 3. 2012 22:38:49 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Recent studies have focused on the short-term contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise, yet little is known about its long-term stability. The present best estimate of the threshold in global temperature rise leading to complete melting of the ice sheet is 3.1 °C (1.9–5.1 °C, 95% confidence interval) above the preindustrial climate1, determined as the temperature for which the modelled surface mass balance of the present-day ice sheet turns negative. Here, using a fully coupled model, we show that this criterion systematically overestimates the temperature threshold and that the Greenland ice sheet is more sensitive to long-term climate change than previously thought. We estimate that the warming threshold leading to a monostable, essentially ice-free state is in the range of 0.8–3.2 °C, with a best estimate of 1.6 °C. By testing the ice sheet’s ability to regrow after partial mass loss, we find that at least one intermediate equilibrium state is possible, though for sufficiently high initial temperature anomalies, total loss of the ice sheet becomes irreversible. Crossing the threshold alone does not imply rapid melting (for temperatures near the threshold, complete melting takes tens of millennia). However, the timescale of melt depends strongly on the magnitude and duration of the temperature overshoot above this critical threshold. |
| Datum přidání | 2. 6. 2019 15:26:27 |
| Upraveno | 2. 6. 2019 15:26:27 |
| Typ | Příspěvek v blogu |
|---|---|
| Autor | Robert Rohde |
| URL | http://berkeleyearth.org/october-2020-temperature-update/ |
| Datum | 2020-11-13T11:34:14+00:00 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 11:45:15 |
| Jazyk | en-US |
| Abstrakt | October 2020 was well above average, but with an intensifying La Niña it was only the fifth warmest October since record keeping began. |
| Název blogu | Berkeley Earth |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 11:45:15 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 11:45:15 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | E. J. Rohling |
| Autor | K. Grant |
| Autor | M. Bolshaw |
| Autor | A. P. Roberts |
| Autor | M. Siddall |
| Autor | Ch Hemleben |
| Autor | M. Kucera |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo557 |
| Práva | 2009 Nature Publishing Group |
| Ročník | 2 |
| Číslo | 7 |
| Rozsah | 500-504 |
| Publikace | Nature Geoscience |
| ISSN | 1752-0908 |
| Datum | 2009-07 |
| Extra | Number: 7 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/ngeo557 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 23:08:52 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Sea level has varied by over one hundred metres across glacial–interglacial cycles over the past 520,000 years. An extended sea-level reconstruction shows a strong coupling between these sea-level changes and Antarctic surface temperatures over the past five glacial cycles. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 23:08:52 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 23:08:52 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Cristian Román-Palacios |
| Autor | John J. Wiens |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211 |
| Práva | © 2020 . https://www.pnas.org/site/aboutpnas/licenses.xhtmlPublished under the PNAS license. |
| Ročník | 117 |
| Číslo | 8 |
| Rozsah | 4211-4217 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| ISSN | 0027-8424, 1091-6490 |
| Datum | 2020/02/25 |
| Extra | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Section: Biological Sciences PMID: 32041877 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | PNAS |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1913007117 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 0:03:00 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.pnas.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57–70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16–30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive. |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 0:03:00 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 0:03:00 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Megan Rowling |
| URL | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-talks-idUSKCN1TI23E |
| Publikace | Reuters |
| Datum | 2019-06-17 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 11:45:02 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.reuters.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Climate change is an "existential issue" for humankind, and stepping up efforts to keep warming to globally agreed limits is urgent, the U.N. climate chief said on Monday, calling on governments to make progress at talks in Bonn. |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 11:45:02 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 11:45:02 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | B. H. Samset |
| Autor | M. Sand |
| Autor | C. J. Smith |
| Autor | S. E. Bauer |
| Autor | P. M. Forster |
| Autor | J. S. Fuglestvedt |
| Autor | S. Osprey |
| Autor | C.-F. Schleussner |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076079 |
| Práva | ©2018. The Authors. |
| Ročník | 45 |
| Číslo | 2 |
| Rozsah | 1020-1029 |
| Publikace | Geophysical Research Letters |
| ISSN | 1944-8007 |
| Datum | 2018 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017GL076079 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076079 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 20:59:50 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wiley Online Library |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing. |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 20:59:51 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 20:59:51 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | B. H. Samset |
| Autor | J. S. Fuglestvedt |
| Autor | M. T. Lund |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17001-1 |
| Práva | 2020 The Author(s) |
| Ročník | 11 |
| Číslo | 1 |
| Rozsah | 3261 |
| Publikace | Nature Communications |
| ISSN | 2041-1723 |
| Datum | 2020-07-07 |
| Extra | Number: 1 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-17001-1 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 21:10:09 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | A major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO2 has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation combines rapid effects on surface temperature with long term effects. For other gases or aerosols, even fully removing anthropogenic emissions is unlikely to have a discernible impact before mid-century. |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 21:10:09 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 21:10:09 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | S. C. Sherwood |
| Autor | M. J. Webb |
| Autor | J. D. Annan |
| Autor | K. C. Armour |
| Autor | P. M. Forster |
| Autor | J. C. Hargreaves |
| Autor | G. Hegerl |
| Autor | S. A. Klein |
| Autor | K. D. Marvel |
| Autor | E. J. Rohling |
| Autor | M. Watanabe |
| Autor | T. Andrews |
| Autor | P. Braconnot |
| Autor | C. S. Bretherton |
| Autor | G. L. Foster |
| Autor | Z. Hausfather |
| Autor | A. S. von der Heydt |
| Autor | R. Knutti |
| Autor | T. Mauritsen |
| Autor | J. R. Norris |
| Autor | C. Proistosescu |
| Autor | M. Rugenstein |
| Autor | G. A. Schmidt |
| Autor | K. B. Tokarska |
| Autor | M. D. Zelinka |
| URL | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000678 |
| Práva | ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| Ročník | 58 |
| Číslo | 4 |
| Rozsah | e2019RG000678 |
| Publikace | Reviews of Geophysics |
| ISSN | 1944-9208 |
| Datum | 2020 |
| Extra | _eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019RG000678 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 11:49:08 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wiley Online Library |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6–3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes. |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 11:49:08 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 11:49:08 |
e2019RG000678 2019RG000678
| Typ | Zpráva |
|---|---|
| Autor | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath |
| Místo | Melbourne |
| Datum | 2018-08-19 |
| Přístup | 26. 11. 2020 19:03:20 |
| Instituce | Breakthrough, National Centre for Climate Restoration |
| Jazyk | en |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 0:14:43 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 0:15:31 |
| Typ | Příspěvek v blogu |
|---|---|
| Autor | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| Autor | Nick Breeze |
| URL | https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/03/its-nonlinearity-stupid |
| Datum | 2019-01-03 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 11:04:25 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Nick Breeze interviews professor John Schellnhuber, who set up the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in 1991 to study climate. |
| Název blogu | Ecologist |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 11:04:25 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 11:16:32 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Christopher R. Schwalm |
| Autor | Spencer Glendon |
| Autor | Philip B. Duffy |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/content/117/45/27793 |
| Práva | © 2020 . https://www.pnas.org/site/aboutpnas/licenses.xhtmlPublished under the PNAS license. |
| Ročník | 117 |
| Číslo | 45 |
| Rozsah | 27793-27794 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| ISSN | 0027-8424, 1091-6490 |
| Datum | 2020/11/10 |
| Extra | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Section: Letter PMID: 33082225 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | PNAS |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2018008117 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:24:36 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.pnas.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Historical and anticipated future total CO2 emissions to 2050 show more agreement with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) than other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)-era RCPs (1). Hausfather and Peters (2) attempt to argue against this by emphasizing 1) RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 better match fossil fuel emissions (FF) relative to International Energy Agency scenarios; and 2) our future emissions from land-use change (ELUC) diverge from RCPs and the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). What matters for the purpose of providing input to climate models, however, is total atmospheric CO2 content, not how much of that CO2 came from FF vs. ELUC. Assumed errors … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: cschwalm{at}whrc.org. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1 |
| Krátký název | Reply to Hausfather and Peters |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:24:36 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:24:36 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Christopher R. Schwalm |
| Autor | Spencer Glendon |
| Autor | Philip B. Duffy |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/content/117/33/19656 |
| Práva | Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND). |
| Ročník | 117 |
| Číslo | 33 |
| Rozsah | 19656-19657 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| ISSN | 0027-8424, 1091-6490 |
| Datum | 2020/08/18 |
| Extra | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Section: Physical Sciences PMID: 32747549 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | PNAS |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2007117117 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:26:22 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.pnas.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100. |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:26:22 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:26:22 |
| Typ | Zpráva |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Spratt |
| URL | https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/ |
| Datum | 2015 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 23:38:07 |
| Instituce | Breakthrough, National Centre for Climate Restoration |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | This survey of the relevant scientific literature concludes that the catastrophic and irreversible consequences of 2°C of warming demand a strong risk-management approach. |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 23:38:07 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 18:49:11 |
| Typ | Příspěvek v blogu |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Spratt |
| URL | http://www.climatecodered.org/2011/01/rethinking-safe-climate-have-we-already.html |
| Datum | 2011-01-23 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:08:06 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | The climate emergency requires actions at emergency speed for a rapid transition to a post-carbon, safe-climate future. |
| Krátký název | Rethinking a "safe climate" |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:08:06 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:09:17 |
| Typ | Zpráva |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Spratt |
| Autor | Ian Dunlop |
| Přispěvatel | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath |
| Místo | Melbourne |
| Datum | 2018-08-19 |
| Přístup | 26. 11. 2020 19:03:20 |
| Instituce | Breakthrough, National Centre for Climate Restoration |
| Jazyk | en |
| Datum přidání | 26. 11. 2020 19:03:20 |
| Upraveno | 26. 11. 2020 19:15:13 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Spratt |
| Autor | Ian Dunlop |
| URL | https://apo.org.au/node/271446 |
| Datum | Sat, 07/27/2019 - 12:00 |
| Místo v archivu | Australia |
| Extra | Publisher: Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:54:06 |
| Katalog knihovny | apo.org.au |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | This discussion paper provides provides detailed supporting evidence for the brief 3°C scenario. Some contentious aspects are explored, including the possibility that perhaps a billion people could be displaced by 3°C of warming, and that some regions may become too hot for human habitation for part of the year. |
| Krátký název | The third degree |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:54:06 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:54:06 |
| Typ | Dokument |
|---|---|
| Autor | David Spratt |
| Autor | Ian Dunlop |
| Autor | Luke Taylor |
| URL | https://www.climaterealitycheck.net/ |
| Vydavatel | Breakthrough – National Centre for Climate Restoration |
| Datum | 2020-10-12 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 12:11:10 |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | A climate reality check of 20 critical impacts, risks & actions 2020. |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 12:11:10 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 12:15:44 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Reuters Staff |
| URL | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-un-idUSKCN1NY186 |
| Publikace | Reuters |
| Datum | 2018-11-29 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:11:17 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.reuters.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Global temperatures are on course for a 3-5 degrees Celsius (5.4-9.0 degrees Fahrenheit) rise this century, far overshooting a global target of limiting the increase to 2C (3.6F) or less, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. |
| Krátký název | Global temperatures on track for 3-5 degree rise by 2100 |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:11:17 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:11:17 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Anthony W. Strawa |
| Autor | Gary Latshaw |
| Autor | Stanley Farkas |
| Autor | Philip Russell |
| Autor | Steven Zornetzer |
| URL | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0030438720300508 |
| Ročník | 64 |
| Číslo | 4 |
| Rozsah | 622-636 |
| Publikace | Orbis |
| ISSN | 0030-4387 |
| Datum | January 1, 2020 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Orbis |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.orbis.2020.08.010 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 20:26:51 |
| Katalog knihovny | ScienceDirect |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Global warming is causing a dramatic reduction in Arctic sea and land ice and thawing permafrost. Because of the Arctic's role in influencing climate, loss of Arctic ice is affecting weather patterns globally and in the Northern Hemisphere in particular. Events such as droughts and coastal flooding, exacerbated by global warming, result in food and water shortages and mass human migrations that can destabilize governments and threaten U.S. national security interests. The loss of sea ice is also changing the geo-political situation in the Arctic. An emerging class of technologies associated with the restoration of Arctic ice can slow global warming and mitigate the threats posed to our national security and foreign policy by the changing geo-political situation in the region and globally. This article posits that an emerging class of technologies associated with the restoration of Arctic ice can slow global warming and mitigate the threats posed to our national security and foreign policy by the changing geo-political situation in the region and globally. It recommends that the United States fund efforts to study Arctic ice restoration technologies and take the lead in developing and coordinating an international response to mitigate Arctic sea ice loss and the impending global warming crisis. |
| Krátký název | Arctic Ice Loss Threatens National Security |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 20:26:51 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 20:26:51 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Anita Talberg |
| Autor | Peter Christoff |
| Autor | Sebastian Thomas |
| Autor | David Karoly |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-017-9374-9 |
| Ročník | 18 |
| Číslo | 2 |
| Rozsah | 229-253 |
| Publikace | International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics |
| ISSN | 1573-1553 |
| Datum | 2018-04-01 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | Int Environ Agreements |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10784-017-9374-9 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 10:59:11 |
| Katalog knihovny | Springer Link |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Geoengineering—the deliberate interference in the climate system to affect global warming—could have significant global environmental and social implications. How to shape formal geoengineering governance mechanisms is an issue of debate. This paper describes and analyses the geoengineering governance landscape that has developed in the absence of explicit geoengineering regulation. An Earth System Governance perspective provides insight into the formation of norms resulting from an overlap in international treaties and from the actions of engaged non-state agents. Specifically, the paper explores the instruments and actors having effect in existing formal and informal geoengineering governance mechanisms. It finds that geoengineering is subject to a form of ‘governance-by-default’. This is due to a situation in which state actors have not resolved the tension between two legal norms: that of ‘precaution’ and that of ‘harm minimisation’. This governance-by-default is characterised by uneven regulation from existing multilateral agreements established for other purposes, an absence of regulation specifically focused on geoengineering, guidance from an international ambition to hold global average warming below 2 °C and to achieve net-zero emissions in the second half of the century, and strong normative engagement by the research community. Governance-by-default is likely to be a stopgap development until more enduring and focused governance emerges. |
| Krátký název | Geoengineering governance-by-default |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 10:59:12 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 10:59:12 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Claudia Tebaldi |
| Autor | Kevin Debeire |
| Autor | Veronika Eyring |
| Autor | Erich Fischer |
| Autor | John Fyfe |
| Autor | Pierre Friedlingstein |
| Autor | Reto Knutti |
| Autor | Jason Lowe |
| Autor | Brian O'Neill |
| Autor | Benjamin Sanderson |
| Autor | Detlef van Vuuren |
| Autor | Keywan Riahi |
| Autor | Malte Meinshausen |
| Autor | Zebedee Nicholls |
| Autor | George Hurtt |
| Autor | Elmar Kriegler |
| Autor | Jean-Francois Lamarque |
| Autor | Gerald Meehl |
| Autor | Richard Moss |
| Autor | Susanne E. Bauer |
| Autor | Olivier Boucher |
| Autor | Victor Brovkin |
| Autor | Jean-Christophe Golaz |
| Autor | Silvio Gualdi |
| Autor | Huan Guo |
| Autor | Jasmin G. John |
| Autor | Slava Kharin |
| Autor | Tsuyoshi Koshiro |
| Autor | Libin Ma |
| Autor | Dirk Olivié |
| Autor | Swapna Panickal |
| Autor | Fangli Qiao |
| Autor | Nan Rosenbloom |
| Autor | Martin Schupfner |
| Autor | Roland Seferian |
| Autor | Zhenya Song |
| Autor | Christian Steger |
| Autor | Alistair Sellar |
| Autor | Neil Swart |
| Autor | Kaoru Tachiiri |
| Autor | Hiroaki Tatebe |
| Autor | Aurore Voldoire |
| Autor | Evgeny Volodin |
| Autor | Klaus Wyser |
| Autor | Xiaoge Xin |
| Autor | Rong Xinyao |
| Autor | Shuting Yang |
| Autor | Yongqiang Yu |
| Autor | Tilo Ziehn |
| URL | https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2020-68/ |
| Rozsah | 1-50 |
| Publikace | Earth System Dynamics Discussions |
| ISSN | 2190-4979 |
| Datum | 2020/09/16 |
| Extra | Publisher: Copernicus GmbH |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-68 |
| Přístup | 24. 11. 2020 21:53:33 |
| Katalog knihovny | esd.copernicus.org |
| Jazyk | English |
| Abstrakt | <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century encompassing the Tier 1 experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by 1.15 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5–95 % envelope of the highest scenario, SSP5-8.5. This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and to higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensembles' spread, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. The same experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century, a new result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP, but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades in mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome in terms of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same level as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4. Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering 20–28 years from present. 2 °C of warming is reached as early as the late '30s by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, but as late as the late '50s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered, 5 °C, is reached only by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, and not until the mid-90s.</p> |
| Datum přidání | 24. 11. 2020 21:53:33 |
| Upraveno | 24. 11. 2020 21:53:33 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Dan Tong |
| Autor | Qiang Zhang |
| Autor | Yixuan Zheng |
| Autor | Ken Caldeira |
| Autor | Christine Shearer |
| Autor | Chaopeng Hong |
| Autor | Yue Qin |
| Autor | Steven J. Davis |
| URL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1364-3 |
| Práva | 2019 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited |
| Ročník | 572 |
| Číslo | 7769 |
| Rozsah | 373-377 |
| Publikace | Nature |
| ISSN | 1476-4687 |
| Datum | 2019-08 |
| Extra | Number: 7769 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-019-1364-3 |
| Přístup | 14. 10. 2020 12:31:03 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1–5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already ‘committed’ future CO2 emissions6–13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37–427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420–580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170–1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18. |
| Datum přidání | 14. 10. 2020 12:31:03 |
| Upraveno | 14. 10. 2020 12:31:03 |
| Typ | Článek v novinách |
|---|---|
| Autor | Gaia Vince |
| URL | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live |
| Publikace | The Observer |
| ISSN | 0029-7712 |
| Datum | 2019-05-18T15:00:37.000Z |
| Sekce | Environment |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:34:13 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.theguardian.com |
| Jazyk | en-GB |
| Abstrakt | Rising global heating will require a drastic shift in the way we live |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:34:13 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:34:13 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Kira Vinke |
| Autor | Sabine Gabrysch |
| Autor | Emanuela Paoletti |
| Autor | Johan Rockström |
| Autor | Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| URL | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/corona-and-the-climate-a-comparison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E |
| Ročník | 3 |
| Publikace | Global Sustainability |
| ISSN | 2059-4798 |
| Datum | 2020-08-14 |
| Extra | Publisher: Cambridge University Press |
| DOI | 10.1017/sus.2020.20 |
| Přístup | 29. 11. 2020 11:32:08 |
| Katalog knihovny | Cambridge University Press |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Lessons from the corona crisis can help manage the even more daunting challenge of anthropogenic global warming. |
| Krátký název | Corona and the climate |
| Datum přidání | 29. 11. 2020 11:32:08 |
| Upraveno | 29. 11. 2020 11:41:30 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Karina von Schuckmann |
| Autor | Lijing Cheng |
| Autor | Matthew D. Palmer |
| Autor | James Hansen |
| Autor | Caterina Tassone |
| Autor | Valentin Aich |
| Autor | Susheel Adusumilli |
| Autor | Hugo Beltrami |
| Autor | Tim Boyer |
| Autor | Francisco José Cuesta-Valero |
| Autor | Damien Desbruyères |
| Autor | Catia Domingues |
| Autor | Almudena García-García |
| Autor | Pierre Gentine |
| Autor | John Gilson |
| Autor | Maximilian Gorfer |
| Autor | Leopold Haimberger |
| Autor | Masayoshi Ishii |
| Autor | Gregory C. Johnson |
| Autor | Rachel Killick |
| Autor | Brian A. King |
| Autor | Gottfried Kirchengast |
| Autor | Nicolas Kolodziejczyk |
| Autor | John Lyman |
| Autor | Ben Marzeion |
| Autor | Michael Mayer |
| Autor | Maeva Monier |
| Autor | Didier Paolo Monselesan |
| Autor | Sarah Purkey |
| Autor | Dean Roemmich |
| Autor | Axel Schweiger |
| Autor | Sonia I. Seneviratne |
| Autor | Andrew Shepherd |
| Autor | Donald A. Slater |
| Autor | Andrea K. Steiner |
| Autor | Fiammetta Straneo |
| Autor | Mary-Louise Timmermans |
| Autor | Susan E. Wijffels |
| URL | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/ |
| Ročník | 12 |
| Číslo | 3 |
| Rozsah | 2013-2041 |
| Publikace | Earth System Science Data |
| ISSN | 1866-3508 |
| Datum | 2020/09/07 |
| Extra | Publisher: Copernicus GmbH |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020 |
| Přístup | 3. 10. 2020 19:30:24 |
| Katalog knihovny | essd.copernicus.org |
| Jazyk | English |
| Abstrakt | <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of <span class="inline-formula">358±37</span> ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of <span class="inline-formula">0.47±0.1</span> W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span>. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to <span class="inline-formula">0.87±0.12</span> W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span> during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span>, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, <span class="uri">https://www.dkrz.de/</span>, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI <a href="https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2">https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2</a> (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).</p> |
| Krátký název | Heat stored in the Earth system |
| Datum přidání | 3. 10. 2020 19:30:24 |
| Upraveno | 3. 10. 2020 19:30:24 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Yangyang Xu |
| Autor | Veerabhadran Ramanathan |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/content/114/39/10315 |
| Práva | Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.. This is an open access article distributed under the PNAS license. |
| Ročník | 114 |
| Číslo | 39 |
| Rozsah | 10315-10323 |
| Publikace | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| ISSN | 0027-8424, 1091-6490 |
| Datum | 2017/09/26 |
| Extra | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Section: Perspective PMID: 28912354 |
| Zkrácený název časopisu | PNAS |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1618481114 |
| Přístup | 28. 11. 2020 22:57:55 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.pnas.org |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. |
| Krátký název | Well below 2 °C |
| Datum přidání | 28. 11. 2020 22:57:55 |
| Upraveno | 28. 11. 2020 22:57:55 |
| Typ | Článek v časopise |
|---|---|
| Autor | Yangyang Xu |
| Autor | Veerabhadran Ramanathan |
| Autor | David G. Victor |
| URL | http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5 |
| Práva | 2018 Nature |
| Ročník | 564 |
| Číslo | 7734 |
| Rozsah | 30 |
| Publikace | Nature |
| Datum | 2018-12 |
| DOI | 10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5 |
| Přístup | 11. 4. 2019 15:18:57 |
| Katalog knihovny | www.nature.com |
| Jazyk | EN |
| Abstrakt | Three trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor. |
| Datum přidání | 11. 4. 2019 15:18:57 |
| Upraveno | 11. 4. 2019 15:18:57 |
| Typ | Článek v encyklopedii |
|---|---|
| URL | https://cs.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Citlivost_klimatu&oldid=18934169 |
| Práva | Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License |
| Datum | 2020-08-19T06:07:47Z |
| Extra | Page Version ID: 18934169 |
| Přístup | 26. 11. 2020 19:43:49 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wikipedia |
| Jméno encyklopedie | Wikipedie |
| Jazyk | cs |
| Abstrakt | V souvislosti s globálním oteplováním označujeme jako citlivost klimatu, nárůst globální teploty v reakci na lidmi produkované CO2. Již mnoho let odhadují vědci, vzestup o 1,5 °C až 4,5 °C při zdvojnásobení koncentrací CO2 v ovzduší a tento odhad se příliš nemění ani s dalšími výzkumy. I když citlivost klimatu je obecně vyjadřována jako závislost oteplování na koncentraci CO2, velmi často se bez dalšího vysvětlení jako citlivost udává jako citlivost právě konkrétní zvýšení teploty při zdvojnásobení koncentrací CO2 proti období před průmyslovou revolucí.Obecně se jako citlivost klimatu označuje jako změna rovnovážné teploty v reakci na změny radiačního působení. Z tohoto důvodu citlivost klimatu sice závisí na počátečním stavu klimatu, ale potenciálně je ji možné odvodit z paleoklimatických dat, tzv. proxy dat. Pomalé klimatické zpětné vazby, zejména změny velikosti ledového příkrovu a atmosférického CO2, zesilují celkovou citlivost zemského systému o hodnotu, která závisí na časovém měřítku, které se bere v úvahu. Ovšem ukazuje se, že změny teplot v pravěku kauzálně způsobují změny složení atmosféry, kdežto v současnosti více složení atmosféry mění teplotu, takže paleoklimaticky stanovená citlivost klimatu (kauzálně určující jaká změna teploty způsobí zdvojnásobení koncentrace oxidu uhličitého) bude pro dnešní použití mylná a odlišná. Paleoklimatické studie ukazují průměrně na citlivost 3 °C, kdežto instrumentální metody pouze na 2 °C. Publikované modely přitom v průměru ukazují ještě vyšší hodnoty citlivosti klimatu než průměrné paleoklimatické hodnoty. |
| Datum přidání | 26. 11. 2020 19:43:49 |
| Upraveno | 26. 11. 2020 19:43:49 |
| Typ | Článek v encyklopedii |
|---|---|
| URL | https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Climate_sensitivity&oldid=985177837 |
| Práva | Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License |
| Datum | 2020-10-24T12:41:20Z |
| Extra | Page Version ID: 985177837 |
| Přístup | 27. 11. 2020 22:48:20 |
| Katalog knihovny | Wikipedia |
| Jméno encyklopedie | Wikipedia |
| Jazyk | en |
| Abstrakt | Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much the Earth's climate will cool or warm after a change in the climate system, for instance, how much it will warm for doubling in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in the Earth's surface temperature in response to changes in radiative forcing, the difference between incoming and outgoing energy on Earth. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, and a focus area for climate scientists, who want to understand the ultimate consequences of anthroprogenic climate change. The Earth's surface warms as a direct consequence of increased atmospheric CO2, as well as increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. Increasing temperatures have secondary effects on the climate system, such as an increase in atmospheric water vapour, which is itself also a greenhouse gas. Because scientists do not know exactly how strong these climate feedbacks are, it is difficult to precisely predict the amount of warming that will result from a given increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. If climate sensitivity turns out to be on the high side of scientific estimates, the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C (3.6 °F) will be difficult to achieve.The two primary types of climate sensitivity are the shorter-term "transient climate response", the increase in global average temperature that is expected to have occurred at a time when the atmospheric CO2 concentration has doubled; and "equilibrium climate sensitivity", the higher long-term increase in global average temperature expected to occur after the effects of a doubled CO2 concentration have had time to reach a steady state. Climate sensitivity is typically estimated in three ways; using direct observations of temperature and levels of greenhouse gases taken during the industrial age; using indirectly estimated temperature and other measurements from the Earth's more distant past; and modelling the various aspects of the climate system with computers. |
| Datum přidání | 27. 11. 2020 22:48:20 |
| Upraveno | 27. 11. 2020 22:48:20 |